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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #50,701
  • Nov 19, 2014 11:40am Nov 19, 2014 11:40am
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} well we havent hit it yet because yesterday high was 11778.4 and today's high was 11778.0... I see FOMC taking it to 11920-11950ish...
I would not expect to much noice out of FOMC meeting. Much should be priced in and dont be surprised if drops independant of what gets out from the meeting. Early ratehike is all that would spice things up and still i wonder if thats not already priced in soon..
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #50,702
  • Nov 19, 2014 11:42am Nov 19, 2014 11:42am
fellas lets not forget in 2007 before the major slide down the highest was 12416.0 and lowest 12075.0 i think this is going to inch back up to these levels before a drop back to the 110 levels if thats going to happen... Lets not forget history repeats itself!!
  • #50,703
  • Edited 12:32pm Nov 19, 2014 12:14pm | Edited 12:32pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I'd rather SL hit or close at BE, then re-enter at a higher price to short. But that's just my style. I don't like draw-downs, so always use tight SL. Entered on the 1 minute chart, so I'm watching closely...
Is it only me? or levels of resistance don't play any real effect when there will be a policy change , or some high impact news with long term influence? Plus, doens't matter what direction it takes, it will normally move both directions to hit short SL a few seconds or minutes before the schedule. Its kind of crazy I think not to take in consideration a possible gap above SL. my guess is that as we saw it with the euro previously it moved 1000 pips opposite direction before going where everyone was expecting. I think it will go down till 15900 than up to 120. my final call. but will only trade after the drop. will hate to miss the opportunity if I am wrong.
  • #50,704
  • Nov 19, 2014 12:47pm Nov 19, 2014 12:47pm
Quoting erisilva
{quote} Is it only me? or levels of resistance don't play any real effect when there will be a policy change , or some high impact news with long term influence? Plus, doens't matter what direction it takes, it will normally move both directions to hit short SL a few seconds or minutes before the schedule. Its kind of crazy I think not to take in consideration a possible gap above SL. my guess is that as we saw it with the euro previously it moved 1000 pips opposite direction before going where everyone was expecting. I think it will go down till...
well lets say you looking for a good entry to long... but i doubt it will drop that low based on fomc
  • #50,705
  • Nov 19, 2014 12:51pm Nov 19, 2014 12:51pm
If we fall I would say 117 would be a nice target!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,706
  • Nov 19, 2014 12:53pm Nov 19, 2014 12:53pm
Quoting erisilva
{quote} Is it only me? or levels of resistance don't play any real effect when there will be a policy change , or some high impact news with long term influence? Plus, doens't matter what direction it takes, it will normally move both directions to hit short SL a few seconds or minutes before the schedule. Its kind of crazy I think not to take in consideration a possible gap above SL. my guess is that as we saw it with the euro previously it moved 1000 pips opposite direction before going where everyone was expecting. I think it will go down till...
Not sure what kind of response you are expecting from me, if any. But, I watch the price, and if I see evidence it will move against me, I close my position.

For example, currently price looks more bullish in consolidation than it did when I entered a short time ago. I may close it, or wait it out.

Plus, I don't keep my life savings in my trading account, so if anything crazy happens, it's really not a big deal for me.

Edit:also you make a good point about not being able to predict news spikes. But I'll go out on a limb here, and predict that if we do get a spike, it will go down first. The channel up has been so tight for past 2-3 days, there's no way that can be sustained without break out of that channel. We'll see...
  • #50,707
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:01pm Nov 19, 2014 1:01pm
Shorted the downward spike. Now I'm long
  • #50,708
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:03pm Nov 19, 2014 1:03pm
Quoting benaiah
Shorted the downward spike. Now I'm long
nice, you do alot of daily trades i see, alot of pips huh
  • #50,709
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:07pm Nov 19, 2014 1:07pm
as i said before i dont like trading meeting minutes, it exposes possible dovishnesss in a hawkish fed..... this time i left my trailing TP at 40... which is currently still holding strong right now at 117.43.. NICE
  • #50,710
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:14pm Nov 19, 2014 1:14pm
Short at 117.56...target 117 which would be a .382 retracement of this most recent upmove...stop/reverse order at 118.05 targeting 120
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,711
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:17pm Nov 19, 2014 1:17pm
Quoting Liam0530
as i said before i dont like trading meeting minutes, it exposes possible dovishnesss in a hawkish fed..... this time i left my trailing TP at 40... which is currently still holding strong right now at 117.43.. NICE
I don't blame you. And good job on managing your trades.
  • #50,712
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:20pm Nov 19, 2014 1:20pm
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} nice, you do alot of daily trades i see, alot of pips huh
Well, I don't only trade lower time frames...

I prefer to make money while I sleep, but the only problem is, when I have open trades, I wake up every hour or 2 to check on them
  • #50,713
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:28pm Nov 19, 2014 1:28pm
Targeting 118.80ish area. Then I'll look for a reversal again...

Same plan, I guess, if reversal fails, jump in long again.

edit: assuming it can stay above 117.85
  • #50,714
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:31pm Nov 19, 2014 1:31pm
If it stays above the daily R3, the next pivot point is not until 122.059 which is weekly R3.

Wouldn't it be nice...
  • #50,715
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:32pm Nov 19, 2014 1:32pm
10 pips away now to big boi 118... lets go bois!!
  • #50,716
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:35pm Nov 19, 2014 1:35pm
Careful here longs....we just tagged resistance
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,717
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:35pm Nov 19, 2014 1:35pm
Quoting benaiah
Targeting 118.80ish area. Then I'll look for a reversal again... Same plan, I guess, if reversal fails, jump in long again. edit: assuming it can stay above 117.85
well 11785 has been broken... lets see 11850-11880 soon!!
  • #50,718
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:41pm Nov 19, 2014 1:41pm
117.85 another very nice trading level. Can use a tight SL whichever way it goes. If you're wrong, can just jump in the other way.

Or wait, cause I'm sure whichever way it goes, it'll retrace back here and bounce again...

At least that's my opinion...
  • #50,719
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:42pm Nov 19, 2014 1:42pm
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} well 11785 has been broken... lets see 11850-11880 soon!!
you are so confident huh?
If You Can't Join Them, Beat Them!
  • #50,720
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:43pm Nov 19, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting hrwn47
{quote} you are so confident huh?
the only way is up for this baby...
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