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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #50,501
  • Nov 18, 2014 3:32pm Nov 18, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting dbutton1990
{quote} What's your opinion on where this thing is headed?
If it's able to reject 116.80-117 (currently bulls trying to put this level behind), I'd look for 117.24 to be the next hurdle, and if it can get through that, then maybe 117.80-90.

Since we are headed into so much resistance, though, I do think we will see a significant drop (could even happen now if bulls fail this area again), so I'm ready to change directions if I see any signs of reversal. But what I'd really like to see is a drop to 115-116 and get in on a bullish turn-around down there...
  • #50,502
  • Nov 18, 2014 3:44pm Nov 18, 2014 3:44pm
Gidday Yen masters

Tried another short -$35


All good,pick it up on the longs
  • #50,503
  • Nov 18, 2014 3:45pm Nov 18, 2014 3:45pm
Quoting benaiah
I too will be looking for evidence that this pair will go back down, but so far, it is pointing up. I did not expect it to point back up so soon. And expected it to head down to 115 area right away. But so far, no dice. I believe it could still head back down, but if it gets back up to 117, be careful this time with short positions. Bulls failed to break it twice. But a third time? And bears were not strong enough this time to keep it down. Initial bear slam was not as heavy as last time and didn't last as long before bullish reversal attempt. We'll...

i said i am waiting for a short to form friend...i am not looking for tops and bottoms but it surely seems that we could have one here. we ll see, not in a hurry and not in any shorts yet
  • #50,504
  • Nov 18, 2014 3:48pm Nov 18, 2014 3:48pm
Quoting stormtrader
{quote} i said i am waiting for a short to form friend...i am not looking for tops and bottoms but it surely seems that we could have one here. we ll see, not in a hurry and not in any shorts yet
Okay. Not sure why you are responding to my post, it was in general, and not directed at you in particular. But I don't have a problem with anything. Happy trading
  • #50,505
  • Nov 18, 2014 3:49pm Nov 18, 2014 3:49pm
Watching for another try at 117. Should tell which direction this will go near term...
  • #50,506
  • Nov 18, 2014 3:53pm Nov 18, 2014 3:53pm
Quoting benaiah
Watching for another try at 117. Should tell which direction this will go near term...
Green pips 2 u 2 friend i thought you were referring to me, no worries
  • #50,507
  • Nov 18, 2014 3:56pm Nov 18, 2014 3:56pm
Quoting stormtrader
{quote} Green pips 2 u 2 friend i thought you were referring to me, no worries


Maybe we'll short it together when it finally turns
  • #50,508
  • Nov 18, 2014 4:05pm Nov 18, 2014 4:05pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Maybe we'll short it together when it finally turns
If it does i m sure we will!!! and hopefully many friends here will make money
  • #50,509
  • Nov 18, 2014 4:27pm Nov 18, 2014 4:27pm
Quoting benaiah
Watching for another try at 117. Should tell which direction this will go near term...
We have now had 3 visits at 117 with no break, i'm really surprised we got there again i have to admit so hats off to you guys who kept the long view. BUT a 4th try? TA wise that rarely happen. The only thing supporting any higher than 117 now would be BOJ hitting the market with something scary, but will they surprise the market again just 14 days later?

I'm short now again with stops above 117.10 as it's low risk big reward. I actually think that we will go much lower than 115 if bull fails at 117 now, could be looking at min 500 pips again, but one step at the time.

FOr the bullside i also agree that I miss some more heavy bear here, but we are also in a low volume session until Tokyo gets online. We are also still very close to 117 still, it's right up there..

Bear.. all tre major sessions have now had a shot at 117 and could have gotten their positions in a the top, in other words it's ready for the drop.

But overall.. right now, it does look scary for anyone looking to short it, and it does look like they want 117 again, if then broken, my guess is then that 118.20-118.30 will be hit pretty fast.
I don't even have a cool signature
  • #50,510
  • Nov 18, 2014 4:32pm Nov 18, 2014 4:32pm
Quoting NoCoolNick
{quote} We have now had 3 visits at 117 with no break, i'm really surprised we got there again i have to admit so hats off to you guys who kept the long view. BUT a 4th try? TA wise that rarely happen. The only thing supporting any higher than 117 now would be BOJ hitting the market with something scary, but will they surprise the market again just 14 days later? I'm short now again with stops above 117.10 as it's low risk big reward. I actually think that we will go much lower than 115 if bull fails at 117 now, could be looking at min 500 pips...
I hear ya...

I was ready to short this thing up and down and all around (metaphorically speaking). But since it reversed and got back up here so quickly, my view quickly changed.

NY daily close higher again for 5th consecutive day at 116.83 (closed above the nasty 116.80 that has been so hard for bulls to get above).

We'll see soon. It has to either go up or down from here, my favorite place be at when trading, is at a key level like this. Bears are just not showing strength or interest anymore it seems (at least not enough to slam it down).

Still ready to short it, if it sneezes. It's only a matter of when not if, there will be drop. Just not seeing evidence it's done going up yet...

Edit: also agree with your targets if 117 is broken...
  • #50,511
  • Nov 18, 2014 4:51pm Nov 18, 2014 4:51pm
I'd wait to short till they make their statement at around 1800-1830 EST. Perhaps nothing will come of it.
  • #50,512
  • Nov 18, 2014 4:52pm Nov 18, 2014 4:52pm
USD will continue it's sharp rise against the YEN. This is a FACT. Everyone is trying to short this and the brokers know this so they are bidding it up sharply at every 1 pip drop. Also there are other signals that say it's going higher anyway.

This WILL RISE to 122.00 then even more will try to short and then it will really begin to rise to 155.00 by March.

This is a FACT
  • #50,513
  • Nov 18, 2014 4:56pm Nov 18, 2014 4:56pm
Quoting JTattheRanch
USD will continue it's sharp rise against the YEN. This is a FACT. Everyone is trying to short this and the brokers know this so they are bidding it up sharply at every 1 pip drop. Also there are other signals that say it's going higher anyway. This WILL RISE to 122.00 then even more will try to short and then it will really begin to rise to 155.00 by March. This is a FACT
Nobody is saying it won't keep rising, people are talking about small pullbacks to short.
  • #50,514
  • Nov 18, 2014 4:57pm Nov 18, 2014 4:57pm
Quoting fxtradeabi
{quote} Nobody is saying it won't keep rising, people are talking about small pullbacks to short.
  • #50,515
  • Nov 18, 2014 5:00pm Nov 18, 2014 5:00pm
Quoting fxtradeabi
I'd wait to short till they make their statement at around 1800-1830 EST. Perhaps nothing will come of it.
Any idea when they will release the statement? Right when they open market?
  • #50,516
  • Nov 18, 2014 5:03pm Nov 18, 2014 5:03pm
Quoting jayjb
{quote} Any idea when they will release the statement? Right when they open market?
No idea but yeah sometime around then.
  • #50,517
  • Nov 18, 2014 5:05pm Nov 18, 2014 5:05pm
Quoting fxtradeabi
{quote} Nobody is saying it won't keep rising, people are talking about small pullbacks to short.

Thats very much high risk, low reward. trying to make 30 pips when it's going to rise 100 over the next 2 days?
  • #50,518
  • Nov 18, 2014 5:06pm Nov 18, 2014 5:06pm
Quoting JTattheRanch
USD will continue it's sharp rise against the YEN. This is a FACT. Everyone is trying to short this and the brokers know this so they are bidding it up sharply at every 1 pip drop. Also there are other signals that say it's going higher anyway. This WILL RISE to 122.00 then even more will try to short and then it will really begin to rise to 155.00 by March. This is a FACT
By the way, I respect your opinion and view of trading, as much as everyone else's.

And I'm sure you realize some traders trade intra-day. There are a lot of opportunities in both directions to get 50-100 pips or more...

Of course, I'd love to have jumped in long at some point in the distant past (as some traders have) and just keep adding to long positions, and several months later have a few thousand pips. But I just don't trade that way...

And having said all of that, this is one thing we all have to keep in mind when viewing other's posts, that each has individual objectives. One needs to maintain one's own confidence in how and what they are trading in spite of everyone else's opinions...
  • #50,519
  • Nov 18, 2014 5:06pm Nov 18, 2014 5:06pm
well 117 just got hit again... au open and asia open with boj news should raise this babyyy!!
  • #50,520
  • Nov 18, 2014 5:12pm Nov 18, 2014 5:12pm
Quoting JTattheRanch
USD will continue it's sharp rise against the YEN. This is a FACT. Everyone is trying to short this and the brokers know this so they are bidding it up sharply at every 1 pip drop. Also there are other signals that say it's going higher anyway. This WILL RISE to 122.00 then even more will try to short and then it will really begin to rise to 155.00 by March. This is a FACT
People still think this?
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