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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #50,481
  • Nov 18, 2014 11:45am Nov 18, 2014 11:45am
The safe play with this pair now, in my opinion is to wait for the pull back to be over before going long, unless you are scalping, or unless you are comfortable with SL below 115.

Right now, the only way I'd feel "safe" going long (not scalping) is if there was not just a rise above 116.82, but a solid rejection of it.

Or, not just a break out of 117, but a solid rejection of it, or a solid rejection of any consolidation that occurs above it.

Otherwise, my best play will be going long around 115.32 area if I see a reversal pattern.

Remember price is hovering at heavy upward resistance on the upside, on H1, H4, and weekly chart.

Why trade against resistance? I'd prefer to enter a trade that had room to go before it will hit a wall. Of course, this is just my opinion...

Happy trading
  • #50,482
  • Nov 18, 2014 11:48am Nov 18, 2014 11:48am
Yeah, I'm definitley skeptical going long at this level. A double top is in place at 117.06. If that doesn't break then we are headed down lower. I'd like to think the 115 area.
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,483
  • Nov 18, 2014 11:57am Nov 18, 2014 11:57am
Gidday Yen

Tried a couple shorts

went to early

116.5 to 115

It flew up 117

Not keen on giving back all the cream

Longs opened up 117+
  • #50,484
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:00pm Nov 18, 2014 12:00pm
ha ha, laughing at myself, after posting all of the "safe play" stuff, now H1 chart is tempting me long for another run at 117. It's not the best R:R but tempting...

Also tempting, since if it does get back up there, I'd expect a new high...
  • #50,485
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:05pm Nov 18, 2014 12:05pm
Need to clear this level and then I'm back in...sometimes I just can't make up my mind haha
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,486
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:06pm Nov 18, 2014 12:06pm
Quoting benaiah
ha ha, laughing at myself, after posting all of the "safe play" stuff, now H1 chart is tempting me long for another run at 117. It's not the best R:R but tempting... Also tempting, since if it does get back up there, I'd expect a new high...
I'm right there with ya brother
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,487
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:23pm Nov 18, 2014 12:23pm
MAYBE it is time to short this pair NOW. for the pinba and DIAGONAL TRIANGLE on 8h chart. [email protected]
let's C.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot_2014-11-19-02-18-20_1416334717098.jpg Size: 165 KB
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #50,488
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:26pm Nov 18, 2014 12:26pm
Quoting geniusztc
MAYBE it is time to short this pair NOW. for the pinba and DIAGONAL TRIANGLE on 8h chart. [email protected] let's C. {image}
How did you come up with those trendlines? Just curious
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,489
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:32pm Nov 18, 2014 12:32pm
Quoting geniusztc
maybe it is time to short this pair now. For the pinba and diagonal triangle on 8h chart. [email protected] let's c. {image}
couldn't agree more with you friend, just waiting for the right time to ride her down
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #50,490
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:38pm Nov 18, 2014 12:38pm
I too will be looking for evidence that this pair will go back down, but so far, it is pointing up. I did not expect it to point back up so soon. And expected it to head down to 115 area right away. But so far, no dice.

I believe it could still head back down, but if it gets back up to 117, be careful this time with short positions. Bulls failed to break it twice. But a third time?

And bears were not strong enough this time to keep it down. Initial bear slam was not as heavy as last time and didn't last as long before bullish reversal attempt. We'll see soon...

Edit: I think someone already posted a 116.38 target long. Here's a chart showing possibility...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #50,491
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:56pm Nov 18, 2014 12:56pm
Love how candles can "try to fake you out". Current hourly candle has been bearish for a while now. But last 5 minutes, it will turn bullish (prediction)

Edit:double fake out - tried to be bullish and failed...
  • #50,492
  • Nov 18, 2014 1:00pm Nov 18, 2014 1:00pm
Quoting dbutton1990
{quote} How did you come up with those trendlines? Just curious
Just some high/low points on the candles.
A chart helps those who can read it.
  • #50,493
  • Nov 18, 2014 2:08pm Nov 18, 2014 2:08pm
About to hit 117 again
  • #50,494
  • Nov 18, 2014 2:08pm Nov 18, 2014 2:08pm
Break of 117 imminent....
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,495
  • Nov 18, 2014 2:10pm Nov 18, 2014 2:10pm
USD pumping about to happen in anticipation of a hawkish minutes tomorrow?
  • #50,496
  • Nov 18, 2014 2:12pm Nov 18, 2014 2:12pm
well hoped on and price has slowly ticked all the way back to 117...looks like tax hike already priced in...im short from 116.95 SL 117.25 expecting drop tonight as big boys take profits. Buy the rumor sell the fact i'm not seeing a big spike up on the already known news tonight. Just my .02 though we will see prob wrong but the r/r too good to pass up small lot short of course and then load big on pull back afterwards. GL all.
  • #50,497
  • Nov 18, 2014 3:05pm Nov 18, 2014 3:05pm
Pennant on the one hour...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 156 KB
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,498
  • Nov 18, 2014 3:06pm Nov 18, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting dbutton1990
Pennant on the one hour... {image}
Based on this chart, I would say that we are headed to 118 within the next 12-24 hours...
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,499
  • Edited 3:34pm Nov 18, 2014 3:10pm | Edited 3:34pm
No bear slam yet except a 1 minute 8 pip drop. First time up here, slammed right away. Second time within half hour or so. This time, almost an hour, and no bear slam yet... Holding long...
  • #50,500
  • Nov 18, 2014 3:18pm Nov 18, 2014 3:18pm
Quoting benaiah
No bear slam yet except a 1 minute 8 pip drop. First time up hear, slammed right away. Second time within half hour or so. This time, almost an hour, and no bear slam yet... Holding long...
What's your opinion on where this thing is headed?
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
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