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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #50,461
  • Nov 18, 2014 7:57am Nov 18, 2014 7:57am
Is 126.00 the final top of ths wave ?
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  • #50,462
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:01am Nov 18, 2014 8:01am
Quoting MaximeCau
Is 126.00 the final top ?
there won't be a final top until japanese want their money more valuable.

major bull trend started with abenomics around 79.63 breakout (2012-11)
2 years since thn.

I guess it would take another 2 years before we see a bear trend
  • #50,463
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:11am Nov 18, 2014 8:11am
The only day you need to know for trading the USD/JPY this week: WEDNESDAY.

We're seeing a press conference from Bank of Japan and a meeting from U.S. FOMC. Those two will move markets for sure.

I'd say that the press conference of the BOJ would favor bulls for USD/JPY (Japan just sank to technical recession).

I don't know about the FOMC, however.

Oh, and a shout out to Mr. Abe Shinzo! Thank you for fucking up Japan's economy! Three cheers to the man who helps me keep the food on my table!
  • #50,464
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:13am Nov 18, 2014 8:13am
BOJ easy to guess


FOMC will give nice entry opportunity,
ready your guns.

Low volatility this year, pretty heartbreaking...
  • #50,465
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:16am Nov 18, 2014 8:16am
Anyone think the GBP/JPY will test the 183.00/.30 levels before Wednesday?

I have a small long poised for intraday profit. It'd be a shame to earn $0 during the morning trading times, when market is most volatile.
  • #50,466
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:21am Nov 18, 2014 8:21am
intraday:
GBP/USD weak
USD/JPY weak

eliminate USD from both pairs, take a guess
  • #50,467
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:22am Nov 18, 2014 8:22am
Took 15 pips on a short scalp....still long on this pair
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,468
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:25am Nov 18, 2014 8:25am
Quoting dbutton1990
Took 15 pips on a short scalp....still long on this pair
Quoting openyoureyes
holding shorts until tomorrow news or SL is hit. entry short : 116.630 SL : 116.824 TP1 : 116.175 TP2 : 115.709 edit: E/J also short ~145.900
the pair turned north.

I closed with profit too.
  • #50,469
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:29am Nov 18, 2014 8:29am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} {quote} the pair turned north. I closed with profit too.
Nice job!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,470
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:31am Nov 18, 2014 8:31am
some reading while waiting for wednesday:

http://finance.yahoo.com/tumblr/phot...133618804.html
  • #50,471
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:34am Nov 18, 2014 8:34am
Quoting Vermillion
The only day you need to know for trading the USD/JPY this week: WEDNESDAY. We're seeing a press conference from Bank of Japan and a meeting from U.S. FOMC. Those two will move markets for sure. I'd say that the press conference of the BOJ would favor bulls for USD/JPY (Japan just sank to technical recession). I don't know about the FOMC, however. Oh, and a shout out to Mr. Abe Shinzo! Thank you for fucking up Japan's economy! Three cheers to the man who helps me keep the food on my table!
maybe I got it wrong from what you wrote but for others:

BoJ conf. is not on wednesday,
it is on tuesday.
  • #50,472
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:41am Nov 18, 2014 8:41am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} maybe I got it wrong from what you wrote but for others: BoJ conf. is not on wednesday, it is on tuesday.
Ah. Sorry about that There's two reasons: it's listed as tentative (so im partly guessing), and I'm looking at it from my time zone. By Tokyo time, I guess you'd be right.
  • #50,473
  • Edited 9:35am Nov 18, 2014 9:09am | Edited 9:35am
I went long when I BE on short position, but then went short again from 117.

Something to think about - anyone who went short the first time it went 117ish still would have not been stopped out, and now getting pushed down again. Price could not make it 1 pip above the last run up.

So, for me, last night's little spike up to 117.04 did not change my target of 115.32. I'd need to see a strong reversal to negate this view...

Or if Bulls can make it up past the 50% retracement level of this current move down from 117??

Perfect place for extremely low risk short trade at current level (116.68) with a few pips SL...

Edit: I will say this, in favor of bulls - this recent bear slam down from 117.04 was not as strong as the last one. Next time this thing turns around and heads up, we'll see a new high. Pick your target to buy and hold. But right now, my opinion is that SL needs to be at 115 or below if you are holding long term
  • #50,474
  • Nov 18, 2014 10:25am Nov 18, 2014 10:25am
This thread is quiet today...as is the UJ...hope everyone is having a great day!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,475
  • Nov 18, 2014 10:44am Nov 18, 2014 10:44am
loaded long on u/j, set target to 117.38
use leverage with caution...
  • #50,476
  • Nov 18, 2014 11:03am Nov 18, 2014 11:03am
Quoting jsshuai
loaded long on u/j, set target to 117.38
only n00bs go short on this pair... unless you want to scalp quick 10-20 pips... which i won't advice because this pair is headed one way and it's that's upward!!
  • #50,477
  • Nov 18, 2014 11:16am Nov 18, 2014 11:16am
Who's defend 117+ area? BOJ?
3 times from last friday hold
isn't a good sign for Bulls, Imo
maybe we will see 114 this week
and there is always a gap on 112
  • #50,478
  • Nov 18, 2014 11:34am Nov 18, 2014 11:34am
Anyone who thinks this or any pair can only go in one direction, be prepared to lose money. Or you'd better have a wide enough SL and the emotional fortitude to watch your account in drawdown for extended period of time...

This was a nice little bull push, but price still cannot stay able 116.80. I have absolutely no confidence it is ready for another push to 117 yet.

If it shows it can stay above 116.80, well then, maybe it will make another move. Until then, be prepared for lower prices. Just my "noob" opinion
  • #50,479
  • Nov 18, 2014 11:40am Nov 18, 2014 11:40am
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} only n00bs go short on this pair... unless you want to scalp quick 10-20 pips... which i won't advice because this pair is headed one way and it's that's upward!!
based on... ? there is a huge volume bulck right were we are - I wouldn't be surprised if we reverse now that we finally got here. look at the /6J future volume profile.
  • #50,480
  • Nov 18, 2014 11:45am Nov 18, 2014 11:45am
I just took another 16 pips off my long for this morning...I'm out until tonight
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
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