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TMS and Me

  • #181
  • Nov 17, 2014 8:44am Nov 17, 2014 8:44am
1-2-3 is when price does this sort of move. First it goes down to 1, retrace back to 2, and goes past 1 to create a 3.
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So when 1-2 already happened, will it go to 3? I don't know, I let TDI guide me and hope it happen.
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Which in the case of GBP/CAD, it didn't.
And you were right about TMA band. Price really couldn't get through it.
The down move on the left would be the 1 if it worked.
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Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #182
  • Nov 17, 2014 8:54am Nov 17, 2014 8:54am
Quoting Direwolf
1-2-3 is when price does this sort of move. First it goes down to 1, retrace back to 2, and goes past 1 to create a 3. {image} So when 1-2 already happened, will it go to 3? I don't know, I let TDI guide me and hope it happen. {image} Which in the case of GBP/CAD, it didn't. And you were right about TMA band. Price really couldn't get through it. The down move on the left would be the 1 if it worked. {image}
Perfect, thanks very much
  • #183
  • Nov 17, 2014 9:39am Nov 17, 2014 9:39am
Quoting Direwolf
@sknight I still remember 1 of those trades. AUD/NZD pin bar on daily TF. Entered when price broke the low of that pin bar, TP at the green. {image} .

Ugh.... all I can say is to quote an old Peanuts cartoon strip, "Gaaaahhhhhhh !!!!"

Now I'm showing my age, aren't I.
  • #184
  • Nov 17, 2014 10:25pm Nov 17, 2014 10:25pm
  •  goorman
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Reality is wrong.Dreams are 4 real | 23 Posts
Hi Direwolf, I have chart in AUDUSD i need your point of view

I look TDI cros, heading to 50 level, HA above MA, at 2nd candle I enter buy, but after 4 candle TDI bent, In this situation Do i need to close my trade or stick to the plan wait to HIT SL or TP .

thankyou
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good is not enough,when better is available and best is still possible
  • #185
  • Nov 17, 2014 10:55pm Nov 17, 2014 10:55pm
@Goorman, quite difficult to answer.
You have the over all trend behind you as this pair seems to be waving up, however based on my own criteria that would be where I wait for a cross down to short.
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #186
  • Nov 18, 2014 5:58am Nov 18, 2014 5:58am
Haven't found any trades today.

EUR/CHF tho has reached that zone where SNB intervened in 2012 I marked with blue lines.
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Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #187
  • Nov 18, 2014 6:23am Nov 18, 2014 6:23am
  •  goorman
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Reality is wrong.Dreams are 4 real | 23 Posts
I got nice entry in eurusd, around 30 pips, do you have any particular reason why trade in cross pair such eur/chf instead major pair.
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good is not enough,when better is available and best is still possible
  • #188
  • Nov 18, 2014 6:29am Nov 18, 2014 6:29am
Great catch Goorman! Green and red look super nice.

EURCHF is not the pair I trade normally. I just found that level interesting. I think SNB announced just recently that they still want this pair above 1.2 so it's very likely they'd intervene again. We'll find out soon.
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #189
  • Nov 18, 2014 8:18am Nov 18, 2014 8:18am
gbp/cad m30 +12. SL 20. ~0.5R
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Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #190
  • Nov 18, 2014 5:20pm Nov 18, 2014 5:20pm
Noticed your reversal trade posted on the TMS thread trading XTI/USD:

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Was just wondering if at some point you could share your ideas on reversal trading for us?

Based on what you've said so far I can see the red/green strong cross and the yellow starting to head down,
but obviously goes against your other trading rules in the sense its a cross right above the 68 line (not just below the 50 for a short) and obviously the last run was in a very much uptrend direction,

Kind Regards,
  • #191
  • Nov 18, 2014 7:23pm Nov 18, 2014 7:23pm
  •  goorman
  • | Joined Mar 2007 | Status: Reality is wrong.Dreams are 4 real | 23 Posts
Good morning (gmt +7),
I'm interested in your chart in EURCHF, when I see this pair (1H)something in my mind tell me, when you face this situation , do I need to wait the channel to break and then I see TDI , or I see TDI first even still in the channel
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good is not enough,when better is available and best is still possible
  • #192
  • Nov 18, 2014 7:26pm Nov 18, 2014 7:26pm
Good morning Flinx.

The trade above was based on an idea I'm discussing with a friend and still need more testing. It has more to do with price behavior than TDI so strictly speaking it's not TMS.

I'll be happy to share once we have the concept nailed down but I'm not sure if it should be in this thread or a new thread on its own. Possibly there would already be some system based on this same concept, I'll have to check.
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #193
  • Nov 18, 2014 7:42pm Nov 18, 2014 7:42pm
Good morning Goorman.

Disclaimer: this is purely my personal view. No guarantee what the outcome might be.

If SNB really is intervening, it means price will never, ever, fall lower than 20 pips from where it is.
So... what else can be easier than this? Start a separate account, hold a buy position, risk 20 pips, set TP a few hundred pips, leave it alone for a few months.
If you look back at the the 2012 intervention, there were only 1 wick that got lower and the tip was 17 pips from current price.

The risk of course is that there's no guarantee if SNB would intervene (looks like they would on h4 and below) or if EUR would ever recover.
Also SNB could decide to stop intervening for whatever reason... running out of money maybe. It had happened before.
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #194
  • Nov 18, 2014 7:57pm Nov 18, 2014 7:57pm
And there's this vote.

http://www.wallstreetdaily.com/2014/...old-vote-merk/

If the outcome is a yes, SNB will be forced to buy physical gold and may not have the fund to intervene. I kinda expect it to fail tho.
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #195
  • Edited 5:57am Nov 19, 2014 5:43am | Edited 5:57am
Quoting Direwolf
Good morning Goorman. Disclaimer: this is purely my personal view. No guarantee what the outcome might be. If SNB really is intervening, it means price will never, ever, fall lower than 20 pips from where it is. So... what else can be easier than this? Start a separate account, hold a buy position, risk 20 pips, set TP a few hundred pips, leave it alone for a few months. If you look back at the the 2012 intervention, there were only 1 wick that got lower and the tip was 17 pips from current price. The risk of course is that there's no guarantee...
I agree 100% with your idea, and that's what some team mates and I were thinking too.
Referendum is very unlikely to pass, not impossible, but unlikely and that's the good thing - if it was impossible, there would not be the possible profit opportunity.

Said so, I also think it would not go lower than let's say 20-30 pips from now.
I already took some small position, very small for now, probably increasing in the next few days, considering a max loss of X euros/dollars ...

On the other side, as I was talking to one of my buddies, we should ask ourselves "how many people would think our same idea ? thousands... so will I be the only smart guy in the square ? " .... NO of course not. So when something it's too logical or too obvious, it's generally not a great shot. For betting, yes, it can be good, but only for that 50/50, which is different from trading



cheers
Lorenzo
  • #196
  • Nov 19, 2014 1:01pm Nov 19, 2014 1:01pm
Hi Direwolf,

Today I made my first profitable trade using TMS as you have taught me, getting me 21 pips. Thanks! However, I noticed upon inspection the R:R wasn't great, and after inspecting your trades on Page 1 got me thinking perhaps I'm not understanding it correctly, so I'm hoping you could clear it...

Below are the trades you made on Page 1, and annotated (red arrow risk, green arrow reward - based on the SL being at low of signal candle/previous low or high) what I interperate based on what I've read in your thread in terms of TP/SL:

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Hopefully you can see what I'm saying here, in the sense that the R:R doesn't look great?

I am therefore wondering if you could explain how this works to me and others?

Surely the risk is much higher than the reward meaning the amount you lose is much more than the wins, making overall unprofitable?

Much thanks and looking forward to hear back
  • #197
  • Nov 19, 2014 2:02pm Nov 19, 2014 2:02pm
Quoting Direwolf
gbp/cad m30 +12. SL 20. ~0.5R {image}
On my chart at the same time Heiken ashi different. True also Tma level a bit. Why so maybe?

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  • #198
  • Nov 19, 2014 6:16pm Nov 19, 2014 6:16pm
Good morning everyone.

@flinx, good observation. That was how the group guided me - to start by taking small, consistent pips, then learn to hold longer position and make better pips as one gains confidence. I'm still a student I have been thinking about improve RR too however I also try to keep adjustment minimal since I'm already very happy with consistency. What I'm trying this month are

1) only take trades with 0.5R minimum,
2) hold trades longer and don't move to BE too soon, and
3) aim for a 1-2-3.

We'll see how that goes.

@Sajmon, If we are using the same indicator (TMS Synergy) then it could be the slight difference between brokers' feed.
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #199
  • Nov 19, 2014 7:57pm Nov 19, 2014 7:57pm
Quoting Direwolf
Good morning everyone. @flinx, good observation. That was how the group guided me - to start by taking small, consistent pips, then learn to hold longer position and make better pips as one gains confidence. I'm still a student I have been thinking about improve RR too however I also try to keep adjustment minimal since I'm already very happy with consistency. What I'm trying this month are 1) only take trades with 0.5R minimum, 2) hold trades longer and don't move to BE too soon, and 3) aim for a 1-2-3. We'll see how that goes. @Sajmon, If we...
Everything has as start, so make this one, wish you luck and with the experience you have, that wont take time or be a problem, good luck
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #200
  • Nov 20, 2014 4:01am Nov 20, 2014 4:01am
Quoting Direwolf
Good morning everyone. @flinx, good observation. That was how the group guided me - to start by taking small, consistent pips, then learn to hold longer position and make better pips as one gains confidence. I'm still a student I have been thinking about improve RR too however I also try to keep adjustment minimal since I'm already very happy with consistency. What I'm trying this month are 1) only take trades with 0.5R minimum, 2) hold trades longer and don't move to BE too soon, and 3) aim for a 1-2-3. We'll see how that goes..
That's interesting, thanks for letting me know.
Are you finding that your winning percentage allows for you to make the trading profitable even though some of the R:R are not idealistic?
In other words, is it currently a viable, profitable strategy to use just by taking small, consistent pips?

That's only my real worry at the moment, the SL, I feel I have the potential to lose so much in each trade even though my stop is at the previous low/high!
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