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Trading Made Simple

  • #44,081
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:07am Nov 18, 2014 12:07am
LONG Setup for NZDUSD on 4hr TF?
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  • #44,082
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:16am Nov 18, 2014 12:16am
Good Morning TMS

I see lots of traders following TMS at recent days which good and am happy to see you all here contributing to TMS, at the time of I started trading there were the same in TMS , ie lots of new traders and me, at that time I didnt even new that a 6 pip draw-don was only minor draw-don and thought that it was 60 pips draw-down, basically nothing I new , spent the first year trying TMS, nothing seems to be working but I knew that it was because I didn't understand how it should work and how I must go about it

Later on in the second year, I started the journey of back-testing on daily basis before market opens, and months went again without major improvements, ie stayed at the stage one where everything still dont seems to be working , but I knew its going to work because from back-testing I started to see repeatable patterns with TMS and kept trying to learn all I could about these formations and TDI crosses and bounces , it started to work but I was still getting those losers and was between winning and loosing but improving

Nothing changed for the second year, but after doing like 9 months of daily back-testing, at one stage everything came together, pieces of the missing puzzle came together, taking on my setup that I studied in back-testing, taking less trades because I was only interested in taking my own trading plan setup, I see a setup I take, it fails then fine learn about this setup and why didnt work, if it works then very good and try to take the same setup over and over again

At the end TMS is working and I can call it Trading Made Simple
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #44,083
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:20am Nov 18, 2014 12:20am
Quoting erelation
Is this a valid USDCAD SHORT setup on 4hr TF? {image}
This is more like it... the W is trending up over a larger period but shows signs of a TDI cross, while the D1 has gone through a TDI cross over the W period - beautiful trade... (this is the type of trade SJ would take I bet). The 4H shows a TDI cross under the 50 TDI level but I think its a missed trade (too late to enter by eelfranz's rules) - this wouldn't stop anyone perhaps? Note that on the W PA is pressing against the trendline meaning a break-out is required...
  • #44,084
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:25am Nov 18, 2014 12:25am
Quoting erelation
LONG Setup for NZDUSD on 4hr TF? {image}
Hi Erelation,

I think the key in trading TMS is finding pairs with momentum, during Asian sessions there is very little of that unfortunately, well at least most of the time.
When you look at the TDI on your chart you can see that the cross is very weak and we still have 1.5 h to London open and 0.5 to Frankfurt open. so it is more guessing game rather than following the momentum... Well that's my understanding of the system.

Regards
3f
  • #44,085
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:30am Nov 18, 2014 12:30am
Quoting TheScorpS
Good Morning TMS I see lots of traders following TMS at recent days which good and am happy to see you all here contributing to TMS, at the time of I started trading ... back-testing, at one stage everything came together, pieces of the missing puzzle came together, taking on my setup that I studied in back-testing, taking less trades because I was only interested in taking my own trading plan setup, I see a setup I take, it fails then fine learn about this setup and why didnt work, if it works then very good and try to take the same setup over...
Many thanks TheScorpS... simply inspirational and a true reflection of the world of trading - no Ferrari's, ...
  • #44,086
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:37am Nov 18, 2014 12:37am
Quoting Olafff
{quote} Hi Erelation, I think the key in trading TMS is finding pairs with momentum, during Asian sessions there is very little of that unfortunately, well at least most of the time. When you look at the TDI on your chart you can see that the cross is very weak and we still have 1.5 h to London open and 0.5 to Frankfurt open. so it is more guessing game rather than following the momentum... Well that's my understanding of the system. Regards 3f

Thanks Olafff....
  • #44,087
  • Nov 18, 2014 12:40am Nov 18, 2014 12:40am
Quoting erelation
Is this a valid USDCAD SHORT setup on 4hr TF? {image}
When you're new to TMS and wanting to build confidence in the trades you take, take only the best setups, if its not a good setup then sit on your hands or do something else until the next candle change. That is the 4th candle, the cross is weak (not a good angle) and you are only a few pips away from Fridays and Mondays low. Too risky to take when you're new. Look for, and take, only the very best setups and then your confidence will build.
  • #44,088
  • Edited 1:05am Nov 18, 2014 12:50am | Edited 1:05am
Quoting lastingwell
{quote}When you're new to TMS and wanting to build confidence in the trades you take, take only the best setups, if its not a good setup then sit on your hands or do something else until the next candle change. That is the 4th candle, the cross is weak (not a good angle) and you are only a few pips away from Fridays and Mondays low. Too risky to take when you're new. Look for, and take, only the very best setups and then your confidence will build.
Many thanks lastingwell. There's been some talk about the cross angle - would you mind explaining what we should be looking for with reference to the UCad 4H chart. The angle of the green line is down as it crosses the red which is moving up - this seems typical for a cross to occur.

Oh, I think I see - literally the angle that the green line makes with the redline as it crosses? But then agian that doesn't hold true for this chart, for example???
  • #44,089
  • Edited 1:15am Nov 18, 2014 1:03am | Edited 1:15am
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} Many thanks lastingwell. There's been some talk about the cross angle - would you mind explaining what we should be looking for with reference to the UCad 4H chart. The angle of the green line is down as it crosses the red which is moving up - this seems typical for a cross to occur.
The angle is down but its not steep, look at the cross down before that one, that is what I would call a good angle. If you look at phx62's charts he takes trades where the angle is very good (even if there has not actually been a cross yet) and also the red line is leaning towards the same direction, those are the best trades to take. Eelfranz said to take into account the cross should be between 4 and 6 for a sell and between 12 and 2 for a buy if you were looking at a clock face, if you look at that trade it may just about be at 4 but its the 4th candle, not the best trade to take.

Can those sorts of trades work? Of course they can, anything can work. Do they work often enough to chance our hard-earned money on? No they don't. As he's stated in a previous post he tried H4 and got stopped out a lot he needs to take only the best.
  • #44,090
  • Nov 18, 2014 1:12am Nov 18, 2014 1:12am
Quoting lastingwell
{quote}The angle is down but its not steep, look at the cross down before that one, that is what I would call a good angle. If you look at phx62's charts he takes trades where the angle is very good (even if there has not actually been a cross yet) and also the red line is leaning towards the same direction, those are the best trades to take. Eelfranz said to take into account the cross should be between 4 and 6 for a sell and between 12 and 2 for a buy if you were looking at a clock face, if you look at that trade it may just about be at 4 but...
Thanks so much lastingwell!
  • #44,091
  • Nov 18, 2014 1:30am Nov 18, 2014 1:30am
Quoting griffinssoul
{quote} Thanks so much lastingwell!
The way I take those kinds of trades is, I would have been in it 34 pips beforehand, when there was a great angle down on H4, not crossed yet but a good angle (eelfranz called it a check mark reversal), and on H1 there was a tdi bounce down trade, (midnight GMT) well before support, enough time to move to breakeven if it doesn't go through it.
  • #44,092
  • Nov 18, 2014 1:35am Nov 18, 2014 1:35am
Quoting lastingwell
{quote}The way I take those kinds of trades is, I would have been in it 34 pips beforehand, when there was a great angle down on H4, not crossed yet but a good angle (eelfranz called it a check mark reversal), and on H1 there was a tdi bounce down trade, (midnight GMT) well before support, enough time to move to breakeven if it doesn't go through it.
Arhh, so that would be @ the 2nd red HA candle before the cross on 4H - effectively a bounce trade on 1H... but how does the 'angle' change from this perspective...?

Oh, I see its the perceived angle ... what it might look like at a future cross...
  • #44,093
  • Nov 18, 2014 1:54am Nov 18, 2014 1:54am
If you look at phx62's trades in detail as I have because he's the best H1 trader for TMS out there, bear in mind he has open the m15 and h4 charts as well. He trades the angle of the tdi (whether or not the cross has actually happened yet) and the price action on H1, glancing at m15 to see if the trade is still ok. I do the same thing but a timeframe higher, so I trade the price action and angle of h4 along with looking at the h1 to see if the trade is still ok to take, if h1 has gone too far when h4 angles down, (too many of the same colour) or has hit supply/demand I wait to see if there is a pullback first. The difference is I use the mtf tdi so I can see the steps on the h4 tdi, a big step up or down is a good angle on the h4 tdi.
  • #44,094
  • Edited 2:48am Nov 18, 2014 2:31am | Edited 2:48am
Quoting lastingwell
If you look at phx62's trades in detail as I have because he's the best H1 trader for TMS out there, bear in mind he has open the m15 and h4 charts as well. He trades the angle of the tdi (whether or not the cross has actually happened yet) and the price action on H1, glancing at m15 to see if the trade is still ok. I do the same thing but a timeframe higher, so I trade the price action and angle of h4 along with looking at the h1 to see if the trade is still ok to take, if h1 has gone too far when h4 angles down, (too many of the same colour) or...
That sounds like a great method - a bottom-up approach - the trend changes on the lower TF's right? But can you call it TMS without trading the TDI cross - something which I, as a noob, take as essentially a basic requirement or perhaps not for the advanced? Perhaps you mean as a bounce trade on the lower TF? Also, what setup have you found to be the most probable, the one we speak of above sounds like a more advanced option... Many thanks for your great help!!!
  • #44,095
  • Nov 18, 2014 2:34am Nov 18, 2014 2:34am
Quoting lastingwell
If you look at phx62's trades in detail as I have because he's the best H1 trader for TMS out there, bear in mind he has open the m15 and h4 charts as well. He trades the angle of the tdi (whether or not the cross has actually happened yet) and the price action on H1, glancing at m15 to see if the trade is still ok. I do the same thing but a timeframe higher, so I trade the price action and angle of h4 along with looking at the h1 to see if the trade is still ok to take, if h1 has gone too far when h4 angles down, (too many of the same colour) or...
The best summary ever!! Worth reading 100 times... Thank you.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #44,096
  • Nov 18, 2014 2:46am Nov 18, 2014 2:46am
Quoting lastingwell
If you look at phx62's trades in detail as I have because he's the best H1 trader for TMS out there, bear in mind he has open the m15 and h4 charts as well. He trades the angle of the tdi (whether or not the cross has actually happened yet) and the price action on H1, glancing at m15 to see if the trade is still ok. I do the same thing but a timeframe higher, so I trade the price action and angle of h4 along with looking at the h1 to see if the trade is still ok to take, if h1 has gone too far when h4 angles down, (too many of the same colour) or...
Lorenzo
  • #44,097
  • Edited 3:35am Nov 18, 2014 2:51am | Edited 3:35am
...currently have UJ +65pips going well... started on the 1H with a great angle (lol, ok I didn't know this at the time) then switched to the 4H but didn't notice the '(big) bounce' on the 1H but it didn't hurt the 4H... wow, thats so cool!

EDT: hit TP @ +78pips
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  • #44,098
  • Nov 18, 2014 2:52am Nov 18, 2014 2:52am
Morning TMS

I can see a nice setup forming on A/U strong bull bar closing in 10mins. Price currently in uptrend + strong 2 o clock cross of TDI + MBL + 200 EMA support.

There is a lot of confluence on this setup. I am targeting the previous high but we will see how it plans out.

Any thoughts from anyone would be appreciated
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  • #44,099
  • Nov 18, 2014 2:52am Nov 18, 2014 2:52am
When are a red news is possible to trade? Ex today:
aud
GBP
EUR
USD
  • #44,100
  • Nov 18, 2014 2:53am Nov 18, 2014 2:53am
Quoting Olafff
{quote} hi Astri, I took the same trade, however in opposite direction. {image}

just closed my Long USD/JPN from yesterday +70 pips
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