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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #50,421
  • Nov 17, 2014 4:21pm Nov 17, 2014 4:21pm
Quoting teddybomber
{quote} I would agree, when these massive up swings come to and end as we have seen lately, there have been some incredibly fast drops. I would have to say there are exceptions where shorting may be a good idea, and after these crazy buying frenzies, those are probably the only logical times to short. As long as you got close stops, it's all good.
i agree also, but some people short this "cuz its too high" and have a target sub 105.. thats insane given the current state of japan and the US, and the policy divergences, unless something drastic happens to the US, but nobody would know that, so they are trading and betting on a reversal with no fundamentals behind it..

like i have said before - shout out to all the shorters that make profit, cuz i think its a bit difficult to do in this pair (i personally havent shorted this pair in months)
  • #50,422
  • Nov 17, 2014 4:26pm Nov 17, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} i agree also, but some people short this "cuz its too high" and have a target sub 105.. thats insane given the current state of japan and the US, and the policy divergences, unless something drastic happens to the US, but nobody would know that, so they are trading and betting on a reversal with no fundamentals behind it.. like i have said before - shout out to all the shorters that make profit, cuz i think its a bit difficult to do in this pair (i personally havent shorted this pair in months)
You said it ! Its all relative of one against the other, and right now you have USD with lots positive data and pricing in a possible rate hike and ended taper, very bullish. Then other hand you have JPY who is just printing more money basically falling off the top of business cycle slipping into a recession. The BIG question is is this US growth and rate hike for the US real?! Lot of doubt and good reason to have doubt but not enough evidence yet.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #50,423
  • Nov 17, 2014 4:35pm Nov 17, 2014 4:35pm
Quoting teddybomber
Why would you short, Japan just fell into a technical recession. Nikkei futures are up pre market, all these big sell offs just keep getting bought and end up making higher highs every time. Close advisors to Abe are saying more stimulus is now needed to get out of recession. Why would the yen strengthen, the economy is a joke and getting worse it seems They are now talking about more stimulus and just giving cash to citizens in need lol If Japan's efforts to escape inflation keep failing, and they become unable to service their massive debt payments,...
I shorted with .01 lots and a 10 pip sl I lost $8 lol.
just a shits n gigs short at 116.5
  • #50,424
  • Nov 17, 2014 4:41pm Nov 17, 2014 4:41pm
Quoting Rtm
{quote} The BIG question is is this US growth and rate hike for the US real?! Lot of doubt and good reason to have doubt but not enough evidence yet.
i strongly agree, thats why i say Tread Carefully at these levels, but still - Dollar LONG
  • #50,425
  • Nov 17, 2014 5:38pm Nov 17, 2014 5:38pm
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} i strongly agree, thats why i say Tread Carefully at these levels, but still - Dollar LONG
The dollar isn't just long. The dollar is KING, at least for the next few weeks and months. The major pairs are in for continued bullish phase for the dollar-the yen, the euro, the pound; it doesn't matter. I'm only worried about the corrections; I might be able to buy on the dips, but shorting them is always a difficult matter. I can sneak out 10~30 pips, but any more than than and I feel unsafe with them.

To be perfectly blunt, the yen is fucked.

The USD/JPY will likely keep an overall bullish trend at least through the first few months of next year, given how BADLY Abenomics was for Japan.

Then again, that's what happens when you attempt to stimulate the economy by printing money as an interim measure and failing to actually invigorate the economy. Japan needs foreign capital and/or a paradigm shift in its labor force, which has been declining thanks to all time lows on birth rates (which will likely continue). Sadly, Prime Minister Abe Shinzo's "reforms" haven't really touched upon this subject. It's not surprising, given that Japan is a vertically integrated society with a conservative gerontocracy.

Still, considering that the yen (or more specifically, its decline) has been one of my major breadwinners, I can safely say that Abe Shinzo has been my BFF in the political world. Please, by all means, continue what you're doing.
  • #50,426
  • Nov 17, 2014 5:52pm Nov 17, 2014 5:52pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} The dollar isn't just long. The dollar is KING, at least for the next few weeks and months. The major pairs are in for continued bullish phase for the dollar-the yen, the euro, the pound; it doesn't matter. I'm only worried about the corrections; I might be able to buy on the dips, but shorting them is always a difficult matter. I can sneak out 10~30 pips, but any more than than and I feel unsafe with them. To be perfectly blunt, the yen is fucked. The USD/JPY will likely keep an overall bullish trend at least through the first few months...
yes
  • #50,427
  • Nov 17, 2014 5:59pm Nov 17, 2014 5:59pm
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} The dollar isn't just long. The dollar is KING, at least for the next few weeks and months. The major pairs are in for continued bullish phase for the dollar-the yen, the euro, the pound; it doesn't matter. I'm only worried about the corrections; I might be able to buy on the dips, but shorting them is always a difficult matter. I can sneak out 10~30 pips, but any more than than and I feel unsafe with them. To be perfectly blunt, the yen is fucked. The USD/JPY will likely keep an overall bullish trend at least through the first few months...
Correct. Not even an opinion, just the cold, hard truth. How anyone can buy the yen at this point for anything other than short term scalps is beyond my comprehension.
  • #50,428
  • Nov 17, 2014 6:00pm Nov 17, 2014 6:00pm
hmm, wonder if *asian session is coming in today shorting a bit
  • #50,429
  • Nov 17, 2014 6:12pm Nov 17, 2014 6:12pm
If you look at daily it does seem possible we could have a quick retracement day. Maybe we will see the USD get dumped before the minutes on wednesday.

Nikkei is going up though which normally means yen gets weaker
  • #50,430
  • Nov 17, 2014 6:19pm Nov 17, 2014 6:19pm
This just came from MNI news

JAPAN PRESS: The government plans to put together a relatively small supplementary budget totaling Y2 trillion to Y3 trillion in the current fiscal year to help consumption recover after the April sales tax hike, the Nikkei says. It will be smaller that the Y5.5 trillion extra budget for fiscal 2013 which is mainly spent on public works projects for disaster prevention.
  • #50,431
  • Nov 17, 2014 6:21pm Nov 17, 2014 6:21pm
I suggest that traders be careful with going short usdjpy. I strongly feel that short will be good only after price has reached 117.60
Happy trading guys!
  • #50,432
  • Edited 6:46pm Nov 17, 2014 6:21pm | Edited 6:46pm
116.80 will need to be overcome soon, otherwise, that pull-back continuation comes into play...

Add: If 116.80 cannot be overcome, then 115.30 is my target
  • #50,433
  • Nov 17, 2014 6:46pm Nov 17, 2014 6:46pm
Quoting teddybomber
Nikkei is going up though which normally means yen gets weaker
Hi Teddybomber - newbie here! Just would like your explanation on why share indexes movement can be an indication for an opposite price movement?
Thanks a lot!
  • #50,434
  • Nov 17, 2014 6:52pm Nov 17, 2014 6:52pm
I´m still long from 115.50 and I´m not closing even on a pullback to 116.5 on previous highs. I think we might see price go well above 117.00
  • #50,435
  • Nov 17, 2014 7:24pm Nov 17, 2014 7:24pm
restest of rpevious highs and 15M 50SMA still very bullish
  • #50,436
  • Nov 17, 2014 7:57pm Nov 17, 2014 7:57pm
Sold at 116.74.

Moved SL to BE in case another run at 116.80.

115.30 is my target, but I'll be watching price, and will very quickly TP on shorts and buy this pair, once it shows it is done with this pull-back.
  • #50,437
  • Nov 17, 2014 8:01pm Nov 17, 2014 8:01pm
Quoting ElonMusketee
I´m still long from 115.50 and I´m not closing even on a pullback to 116.5 on previous highs. I think we might see price go well above 117.00
with this pair for now I'm throwing all technical out the window. keep the longs going we will golden.
Be like water making its way through cracks.
  • #50,438
  • Nov 17, 2014 8:04pm Nov 17, 2014 8:04pm
the 9pm ET rush
  • #50,439
  • Edited 8:31pm Nov 17, 2014 8:07pm | Edited 8:31pm
im short on USDJPY on 116.70
Profit is on the other side of your mind
  • #50,440
  • Nov 17, 2014 8:39pm Nov 17, 2014 8:39pm
Quoting Liam0530
the 9pm ET rush
Why are the extra terrestrials rushing at 9 pm? And where are they rushing to?
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