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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #50,401
  • Edited 1:41pm Nov 17, 2014 12:17pm | Edited 1:41pm
Short at 116.49.

SL 116.58

add - Target: 115.32

add - Thinking targeting a little more conservatively at 115.82, but we'll see how price acts if/when it gets down there...
  • #50,402
  • Nov 17, 2014 2:12pm Nov 17, 2014 2:12pm
I think there is a good chance we will see 117 again. If we don't get an hourly close above it, then I would short....80% of the time the market will go and test a formation...in this case the formation is a evening star on the 4 hour. Things to note for the bears are the legs that the 4 hour candles gave us at the 115.45 level. If that had not happened, I might still be short, but decided to grab some pips long on the way up. Good luck everyone!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,403
  • Nov 17, 2014 2:32pm Nov 17, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting dbutton1990
I think there is a good chance we will see 117 again. If we don't get an hourly close above it, then I would short....80% of the time the market will go and test a formation...in this case the formation is a evening star on the 4 hour. Things to note for the bears are the legs that the 4 hour candles gave us at the 115.45 level. If that had not happened, I might still be short, but decided to grab some pips long on the way up. Good luck everyone! {image}
Totally agree that we probably will see 117 again. However 116.54 is the barrier right now. Extremely low risk short trade with only a few pips SL, and a key level. I believe price will drop first and retest recent lows before it goes back up.

Another thing is that the bearish drop was hard and heavy. I doubt very much we get a 100% retrace on that decisive move without another downward move first.

Anyway, just my opinion. I'm only right 95% of the time. Just kidding
  • #50,404
  • Nov 17, 2014 2:57pm Nov 17, 2014 2:57pm
Yes this consolidation could provide a rather low risk short trade i'm setting short at 116.5 SL 116.6. Although this could just barrel straight up to 117 but what the heck if it drops back to 115.5-115 big gain if not oh well hop on long again.
  • #50,405
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:05pm Nov 17, 2014 3:05pm
lets not forget BoJ press conference in few hours will have some news regarding the tax hike delay and maybe a snap election,

if tax hike is delayed etc. (strong possibility) this will give us new highs, which is the reasoning behind this sell off last night, to give some breathing room before another bull storm north.....

stay LONG :nerd:

hold, dont fold lol
  • #50,406
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:06pm Nov 17, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting Liam0530
lets not forget BoJ press conference in few hours will have some news regarding the tax hike delay and maybe a snap election, if tax hike is delayed etc. (strong possibility) this will give us new highs, which is the reasoning behind this sell off last night, to give some breathing room before another bull storm north..... stay LONG :nerd: hold, dont fold lol
that would be too logical
  • #50,407
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:10pm Nov 17, 2014 3:10pm
Quoting Liam0530
lets not forget BoJ press conference in few hours will have some news regarding the tax hike delay and maybe a snap election, if tax hike is delayed etc. (strong possibility) this will give us new highs, which is the reasoning behind this sell off last night, to give some breathing room before another bull storm north..... stay LONG :nerd: hold, dont fold lol
what time is that scheduled? FF calendar says "tentative"
  • #50,408
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:11pm Nov 17, 2014 3:11pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} what time is that scheduled? FF calendar says "tentative"
shit, sorry its wed. morning actually , apoligies, and yeah japans always tentative, usually between 12am and 2am ET...
  • #50,409
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:17pm Nov 17, 2014 3:17pm
im hoping that meeting pushes us up north so i can hit the bench for a day or so (maybe)

dont really want to have anything open for the FOMC meeting minutes on wed, and if i do, with a nice stop loss in profit already...

meeting minutes gives everyone the inside scoop on possible negatives on the economy and dovishness from these damn feds, so it opens the door for price retraction ... would hate to be caught with my pants down like october when some feds were scared of global deflation etc, which turned the dollar to shit for 2 weeks lol...
  • #50,410
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:24pm Nov 17, 2014 3:24pm
Quoting lasty
115.55 USD/JPY First we took out the weak shorts and now its the longs turn. The US$ bulls could be in for a bit more pain as this zone still looks long to me. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 114 in front of it today. If in doubt stay out
Read this one completely wrong.

That's the pitfalls going against the strong trend.
  • #50,411
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:32pm Nov 17, 2014 3:32pm
Okay, waited long enough for the short idea to come to fruition. I'm long now, as M15 chart has maintained it's bullish sentiment.
  • #50,412
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:33pm Nov 17, 2014 3:33pm
The Yens happy where it is. Japan Rakes in Income From Overseas, and Weak Yen Helps

http://blogs.wsj.com/japanrealtime/2...eak-yen-helps/


I'm still mid term bearish on this as the above story is more so a longer term phase.
Dip and rise trade this thing but keep mental note of the stall points. The quick touch and fall from 117.xx was an
option barrier that got took out and thus the fade to hold to the inching climb pattern. Renewed interest is brewing though nearby above.
Shorts are cautious to this flavoring.
"Look Left Think Right"
  • #50,413
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:33pm Nov 17, 2014 3:33pm
Of course still looking at current level as key. If it is rejected either way, or break out, I'll change directions if necessary...
  • #50,414
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:35pm Nov 17, 2014 3:35pm
Quoting benaiah
Okay, waited long enough for the short idea to come to fruition. I'm long now, as M15 chart has maintained it's bullish sentiment.
mine just got triggered lets see 116.5 sl 116.6.
  • #50,415
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:56pm Nov 17, 2014 3:56pm
Okay, unless something crazy happens, looks like a break out of the key level of 116.43-53.

Looking at things now, I'd actually be surprised if we don't see 117 or near it soon...
  • #50,416
  • Nov 17, 2014 3:58pm Nov 17, 2014 3:58pm
Why would you short, Japan just fell into a technical recession.

Nikkei futures are up pre market, all these big sell offs just keep getting bought and end up making higher highs every time.

Close advisors to Abe are saying more stimulus is now needed to get out of recession.

Why would the yen strengthen, the economy is a joke and getting worse it seems

They are now talking about more stimulus and just giving cash to citizens in need lol

If Japan's efforts to escape inflation keep failing, and they become unable to service their massive debt payments, this thing could be heading to new all time highs eventually.


Or some unexpected things could happen, like US economy declining suddenly, so who knows. In the short term though, there is no reason this up trend should stop.
  • #50,417
  • Nov 17, 2014 4:04pm Nov 17, 2014 4:04pm
Quoting teddybomber
Why would you short
I think a matter of trading style. A lot of pips could be had for anyone who went short yesterday. The trick is not to get too comfortable in any one direction. That is my opinion, but I respect yours.
  • #50,418
  • Nov 17, 2014 4:08pm Nov 17, 2014 4:08pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} I think a matter of trading style. A lot of pips could be had for anyone who went short yesterday. The trick is not to get too comfortable in any one direction. That is my opinion, but I respect yours.
I would agree, when these massive up swings come to and end as we have seen lately, there have been some incredibly fast drops. I would have to say there are exceptions where shorting may be a good idea, and after these crazy buying frenzies, those are probably the only logical times to short.


As long as you got close stops, it's all good.
  • #50,419
  • Nov 17, 2014 4:15pm Nov 17, 2014 4:15pm
BOJ turned on the money printer early tonight
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #50,420
  • Nov 17, 2014 4:18pm Nov 17, 2014 4:18pm
Quoting Rtm
BOJ turned on the money printer early tonight
I'm wondering if this is really going to continue up or not. Seems a little too early for that, but who knows, the volatility in this pair is crazy lately.

Last night somebody who doesn't even trade was watching me, with the M1 charts up when we hit 117 and then plummeted down. He couldn't believe how fast things were happening.
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