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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #50,381
  • Nov 17, 2014 4:05am Nov 17, 2014 4:05am
wow, volatility was much more than I expected today. Early in the day I was up 10k, then down 45k, now break even again. Unfortunately I dropt 1/5 long position at around the daily bottom, loaded up too early. Completely played today wrong. Hope other people did better.
  • #50,382
  • Nov 17, 2014 4:52am Nov 17, 2014 4:52am
Quoting hellonoob
wow, volatility was much more than I expected today. Early in the day I was up 10k, then down 45k, now break even again. Unfortunately I dropt 1/5 long position at around the daily bottom, loaded up too early. Completely played today wrong. Hope other people did better.

Stick with the trend
  • #50,383
  • Nov 17, 2014 5:55am Nov 17, 2014 5:55am
Long at 115.75 SL 115.5 TP 118

Hope its the last train long.
  • #50,384
  • Nov 17, 2014 6:21am Nov 17, 2014 6:21am
IMHO, 115.10 becomes an important support level for the USDJPY, breaking which the pair can plunge to 114.60, 113.70 and 112.60 support levels.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #50,385
  • Nov 17, 2014 7:55am Nov 17, 2014 7:55am
Quoting slk
Long at 115.75 SL 115.5 TP 118 Hope its the last train long.
Breakeven at 115.75
  • #50,386
  • Nov 17, 2014 8:11am Nov 17, 2014 8:11am
Bulls look strong pushing up but not as strong as bears looked pushing down. Could go to 117ish, but will keep eye out for bearish reversal now or any new evidence Bulls are stronger...
  • #50,387
  • Nov 17, 2014 8:49am Nov 17, 2014 8:49am
Quoting benaiah
Bulls look strong pushing up but not as strong as bears looked pushing down. Could go to 117ish, but will keep eye out for bearish reversal now or any new evidence Bulls are stronger...
Had a stop/reverse order at 116.20...looks like you were right about the .618 bounce...with Japan's economy not doing so hot, expect another big announcement from BOJ's emergency meeting tomorrow. I would look for 120 by the end of the week!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,388
  • Nov 17, 2014 8:50am Nov 17, 2014 8:50am
Quoting benaiah
Bulls look strong pushing up but not as strong as bears looked pushing down. Could go to 117ish, but will keep eye out for bearish reversal now or any new evidence Bulls are stronger...

Patience


"If you can keep your wits about you while all others are losing theirs, and blaming you. The world will be yours and everything in it, what's more, you'll be a man, my son."
  • #50,389
  • Nov 17, 2014 9:03am Nov 17, 2014 9:03am
So uhh buy the dips right?
  • #50,390
  • Nov 17, 2014 9:05am Nov 17, 2014 9:05am
Quoting thegmann
So uhh buy the dips right?
lol yes!!!
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,391
  • Nov 17, 2014 9:24am Nov 17, 2014 9:24am
Quoting dbutton1990
{quote} Had a stop/reverse order at 116.20...looks like you were right about the .618 bounce...with Japan's economy not doing so hot, expect another big announcement from BOJ's emergency meeting tomorrow. I would look for 120 by the end of the week!
120 by end of week? That would be nice

Bulls looking pretty good now, maybe push past 117...
  • #50,392
  • Nov 17, 2014 9:31am Nov 17, 2014 9:31am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} 120 by end of week? That would be nice Bulls looking pretty good now, maybe push past 117...
I'm basing this off of reports that are due out this week....BOJ and FOMC minutes Wendesday
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,393
  • Nov 17, 2014 9:55am Nov 17, 2014 9:55am
Hope bulls got to reload llongs last night

And shorter didn't lose too much money
  • #50,394
  • Nov 17, 2014 10:06am Nov 17, 2014 10:06am
Quoting dbutton1990
{quote} I'm basing this off of reports that are due out this week....BOJ and FOMC minutes Wendesday
Okay, sounds good, I was just looking at today if we can get past 117, but now Bulls taking a break, we will see. And hope you're end of week 120 happens
  • #50,395
  • Nov 17, 2014 11:21am Nov 17, 2014 11:21am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Okay, sounds good, I was just looking at today if we can get past 117, but now Bulls taking a break, we will see. And hope you're end of week 120 happens
you still going short at 116.4-6 like said before or you change? Wonder if another pullback in store don't think so but would love to get more longs in.
  • #50,396
  • Nov 17, 2014 11:39am Nov 17, 2014 11:39am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} you still going short at 116.4-6 like said before or you change? Wonder if another pullback in store don't think so but would love to get more longs in.

Watching...

Not sure, but when I was posting my assumptions before, it was more of a "I think it'll play out like this" type of thing. So, I won't enter unless I actually see the price playing out like I anticipated. Right now, still bullish, consolidating, and at a key level. I think current consolidation will give some indication on whether bulls can ride this up more.

So, I'm bullish as long as price can stay above 116.43. If this level is bearishly rejected, then I may look at short position...

Add: Also, I think if this level is bullishly rejected, it should test 117ish area again, and maybe higher. But again, only assumption, we'll see how it plays out. But For me, I wouldn't be adding longs right now. But I'm intra-day, so no sure if my time frame is the same as yours... I'd probably wait for another pull-back to go long, either after it breaks current high, then pulls back, or if it rejects current high then pulls back...
  • #50,397
  • Nov 17, 2014 11:45am Nov 17, 2014 11:45am
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Watching... Not sure, but when I was posting my assumptions before, it was more of a "I think it'll play out like this" type of thing. So, I won't enter unless I actually see the price playing out like I anticipated. Right now, still bullish, consolidating, and at a key level. I think current consolidation will give some indication on whether bulls can ride this up more. So, I'm bullish as long as price can stay above 116.43. If this level is bearishly rejected, then I may look at short position... Add: Also, I think if this level is bullishly...
oh no definitely not adding longs at this level would add lower on another pullback towards 115.5-115 level. Just wondering if you were shorting it I personally would not here but that's me.
  • #50,398
  • Nov 17, 2014 11:51am Nov 17, 2014 11:51am
Quoting thegmann
{quote} oh no definitely not adding longs at this level would add lower on another pullback towards 115.5-115 level. Just wondering if you were shorting it I personally would not here but that's me.
Okay, yeah, once I start typing, I tend to go on an on and on : )

But the more I look at the chart, it seems clear to me right now that bulls have their target on 117ish area... So, not even thinking about short positions
  • #50,399
  • Nov 17, 2014 11:54am Nov 17, 2014 11:54am
However...

I'm still not convinced this bull run has enough steam to go too far. I will be looking for a pull back at some point.

Right now looks strong. But looks more like a corrective move, rather than a decisive directional move (at least to me)...

Edit:Would be surprised if it made it past 117 on this move up. And I do think 115ish are is very possible once it bounces off 117 area. Sorry for the rambling, but I was away from my computer, watching on my phone, and now getting back to a little better view/analysis...
  • #50,400
  • Nov 17, 2014 12:08pm Nov 17, 2014 12:08pm
Watching lower time frames now, and seeing a little too much hesitation. Went ahead and TP for this time around. Will watch to see what's next...
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