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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #50,241
  • Nov 14, 2014 11:23am Nov 14, 2014 11:23am
Just hit the .382 retracement level on the new one hour fibonacci....as expected the resistance level was hit, I thought it would plow right through it because it's a minor one, but I guess not .....118 is the next target after this retrace is complete.
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Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,242
  • Nov 14, 2014 11:25am Nov 14, 2014 11:25am
Quoting dbutton1990
just hit the .382 retracement level on the new one hour fibonacci....as expected the resistance level was hit, i thought it would plow right through it because it's a minor one, but i guess not .....118 is the next target after this retrace is complete. {image}
note:if we break below 114.88 we are reversing
Good luck and may the odds be ever in your favor!
  • #50,243
  • Nov 14, 2014 11:51pm Nov 14, 2014 11:51pm
Quoting dbutton1990
{quote} note:if we break below 114.88 we are reversing
G20 meeting taking place and plenty of cash on with BOJ so I really doubt that we reverse.
  • #50,244
  • Nov 15, 2014 2:23am Nov 15, 2014 2:23am
can someone help me out in usdcad? i have long position at 1.1390.. i knw i knw.. its super high but i thought with the news it would boost the price up to 1.15, but it went opposite... i would to know is it going to continue crashing coming next week? please help~
  • #50,245
  • Nov 15, 2014 2:47am Nov 15, 2014 2:47am
I suggest Shorting at these levels (or higher when possible), targeting the un-filled GAP around 112.50.
Start with small volumes and add on the way down.

Notice the Bearish Divergence on the Daily.

Daily Chart:

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No guts, no glory
  • #50,246
  • Nov 15, 2014 10:16am Nov 15, 2014 10:16am
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #50,247
  • Nov 15, 2014 11:26am Nov 15, 2014 11:26am
Quoting abokwaik
I suggest Shorting at these levels (or higher when possible), targeting the un-filled GAP around 112.50. Start with small volumes and add on the way down. Notice the Bearish Divergence on the Daily. Daily Chart: {image}
Please be careful with short positions.

I trade both ways on any given day as my style is mostly intra day.... But longer term, I would wait for price to give some indication that it is reversing before I would trade short positions long term.

As you probably know, divergence can go on for days or weeks before a reversal. Plus price may never follow whatever indicator you are using. Some indicators show divergence while others do not show it. A very unreliable method in my opinion.

It would be much safer to wait for a reversal pattern, then you would know where to put SL. But if you don't use SL then you would be in a very bad trade if price just kept going to 145 without ever dipping below 116...
  • #50,248
  • Nov 15, 2014 12:00pm Nov 15, 2014 12:00pm
Quoting benaiah
{quote} Please be careful with short positions. I trade both ways on any given day as my style is mostly intra day.... But longer term, I would wait for price to give some indication that it is reversing before I would trade short positions long term. As you probably know, divergence can go on for days or weeks before a reversal. Plus price may never follow whatever indicator you are using. Some indicators show divergence while others do not show it. A very unreliable method in my opinion. It would be much safer to wait for a reversal pattern, then...
Thanks. This why I said (small volumes). I am anticipating a retrace to fill the weekly gap, not a complete reversal of course.A suggested stop could be beyond 117.50 as nearest resistance is around 117.35.
No guts, no glory
  • #50,249
  • Nov 16, 2014 1:40am Nov 16, 2014 1:40am
Quoting benaiah
{quote}As you probably know, divergence can go on for days or weeks before a reversal. Plus price may never follow whatever indicator you are using. Some indicators show divergence while others do not show it. A very unreliable method in my opinion.
This is correct. The most recent example of this would be the rally starting in 2011. Divergence for months and months, but price kept climbing. Retail loves to trade against trends because picking a bottom or top presents the most potential profit. But you need to have a basis for such a trade other than simple price extremes. Right now, there is no fundamental or technical reason to short the UJ other than for brief, risky scalps. Price is guaranteed to make a higher high, even if it retraces. It is NOT guaranteed or even probable to make a lower low any time soon.

Ask yourself what's a better risk: shorting this and hoping for 112 with a really good chance it never gets there for months, OR, buying on a dip with a really good chance it gets to 120 within a few weeks?
  • #50,250
  • Nov 16, 2014 1:43am Nov 16, 2014 1:43am
Quoting DonaldPump
Right now, there is no fundamental or technical reason to short the UJ other than for brief, risky scalps. Price is guaranteed to make a higher high, even if it retraces. It is NOT guaranteed or even probable to make a lower low any time soon. Ask yourself what's a better risk: shorting this and hoping for 112 with a really good chance it never gets there for months, OR, buying on a dip with a really good chance it gets to 120 within a few weeks?
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  • #50,251
  • Edited 2:47am Nov 16, 2014 2:33am | Edited 2:47am
Quoting abokwaik
I suggest Shorting at these levels (or higher when possible), targeting the un-filled GAP around 112.50. Start with small volumes and add on the way down. Notice the Bearish Divergence on the Daily. Daily Chart: {image}
Good observation . Will look for the range play to down further . Target bull there at further up to remember always .gap is not always the target but if any then easy 1st target here for sure when will work.
Take care .
fontu
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Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #50,252
  • Nov 16, 2014 4:01am Nov 16, 2014 4:01am
Just my 2 cents.....

Rising wedge BEARISH, Price action hitting the top and bottom trendlines perfectly
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.....however on a shorter time scale we have a falling wedge so i expect one more leg up to 117 then a drop
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  • #50,253
  • Nov 16, 2014 7:11am Nov 16, 2014 7:11am
Hi guys, I am a newbie to this site. I only started trading forex about 2 months ago. With this in mind, please excuse my line of questioning if it is dumb. I am long USDJPY but am wondering what the retracement with a risk off move would be. For instance, if there was a stock market correction, would JPY rebound in a major, say 5-10, way? What do other people think??? The main risks I can see blowing up my position at this point in time are:
1. Stockmarket correction --> risk off, repatriation of yen
2. Political - US or Europeans make negative statements about Japanese QE being unacceptable, threaten retaliation
Currently 1/3 of my account is long USDJPY and it has done well, but I am thinking of reducing this and putting this in short AUDUSD instead as I think this would be more likely to depreciate further if 1. or 2. occur.

Thanks for your thoughts if you post them!
  • #50,254
  • Nov 16, 2014 3:36pm Nov 16, 2014 3:36pm
Price will gap up again at this weeks opening...

Currently trading at 116.48 and is moving upward...

Regarding gaps (I too used to think they were significant, but have learned otherwise), they are only gaps that show up when your broker is closed. The price continues to move while broker is closed, when they open, a gap occurs if the price moved over the weekend.

So, there really is no "gap to be filled". If price retraces, it is simply a price retracement, nothing more.

Rather than just looking at a gap and expecting a retrace, one should consider key price levels, or price action that would indicate a retrace. There's no guarantee that price will retrace several days or weeks worth of movement just because of a "gap".

The only significance I can think of that a "gap" in itself would have is that it represents the weekly open and close prices, and typically weekly open/close prices are key levels that many traders enter/exit trades on. Other than that, I would not expect a gap that was left far behind in a strong uptrend or downtrend to be of any significance, unless price does retrace, then ANY key price level, i.e. daily/weekly/monthly open/close price could offer support whether it involves a "gap" or not...
  • #50,255
  • Nov 16, 2014 4:19pm Nov 16, 2014 4:19pm
I like to find the channel price has been moving in, which tells me a lot about what to expect in terms of future price movement...

If you look at the attached H1 chart, notice (channel up) how price has recently bounced off of the bottom of the channel, clearly respecting the lower boundary trend line.

Prior to that, price has also respected the upper trend line, although the range of the channel seems to be tightening a bit, which would cause me to expect a breakout of the channel up or down soon. I expect that upper boundary to be tested again, and maybe even broken around 117-118.

Obviously, if price starts breaking the bottom trend line, it could mean potential pull-back/breakout down. I also look at 116 as a key level for price to stay above, to maintain near-term bullish sentiment...
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  • #50,256
  • Nov 16, 2014 4:22pm Nov 16, 2014 4:22pm
that closing of the gap in first 20 minutes shows something...

6:50 ET shows Japans GDP, and according to Abe, he will make decision regarding next tax hike off of this reading....

more upside coming tonight
  • #50,257
  • Nov 16, 2014 4:27pm Nov 16, 2014 4:27pm
Last week's close - 116.25

Today's low - 116.338

Edit: My opinion, price is distancing itself from 116.095 (High of the mother bar of inside bar set up on the daily chart).
  • #50,258
  • Nov 16, 2014 4:37pm Nov 16, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting Liam0530
that closing of the gap in first 20 minutes shows something... 6:50 ET shows Japans GDP, and according to Abe, he will make decision regarding next tax hike off of this reading.... more upside coming tonight
Thanks for your comment. Reminded me to keep an eye out for news spikes. Even with a spike, though, I'd not think price would dip below 116 (although I know anything is possible). I'll be comfortable the further price can move up before any news affects...
  • #50,259
  • Nov 16, 2014 4:37pm Nov 16, 2014 4:37pm
decent pull back is coming warning to all long traders
  • #50,260
  • Nov 16, 2014 4:37pm Nov 16, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting DonaldPump
{quote} This is correct. The most recent example of this would be the rally starting in 2011. Divergence for months and months, but price kept climbing. Retail loves to trade against trends because picking a bottom or top presents the most potential profit. But you need to have a basis for such a trade other than simple price extremes. Right now, there is no fundamental or technical reason to short the UJ other than for brief, risky scalps. Price is guaranteed to make a higher high, even if it retraces. It is NOT guaranteed or even probable to make...
Let the market come to you, patience is the key !
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