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  • #935,861
  • Nov 15, 2014 8:38am Nov 15, 2014 8:38am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Looking at the weekly charts we're just hitting for a resistance at the low of last month.... If that turns out to be what i think it is.... Could be a full bodied sell off on the eurusd next week. Will reassess if otherwise...
we closed ABOVE last moths low. THATS BULLISH
  • #935,862
  • Nov 15, 2014 8:44am Nov 15, 2014 8:44am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} early Monday dragis will speak. whats the odds of him saying all is ok? i say slim.. 2516/2576 is/was a norm, before 2336. -2522 close is probably bearish. {image}
what if i told you that's its true Dragis trades forex and just looks at the charts ?
  • #935,863
  • Nov 15, 2014 8:49am Nov 15, 2014 8:49am
Quoting atheer1
For me this is a clear reversal signal.............................at least to 1.28
Correct, but donot fight trend
  • #935,864
  • Nov 15, 2014 8:53am Nov 15, 2014 8:53am
Quoting pedro319
USDJPY On the 4 hrs price is bouncing off 1.27 extension and on the daily from 2.236 Ext of AB=CD, note that extension 2.618 on the same timeframe stands around 118 figure. If we get a reversal candle on daily retracement could be long however on this pair I will only catch pullbacks to long it because fundamentals are quite fresh and having an obvious effect on PA. When trend is this strong even 38.2 retracement would be great and that is 111.80, the 50% stands 100 pips down at 110.70. So far I don't see much confluence with pivots. {image}
USDJPY
D1 2.236 extension is broken next stop is 2.618 at 118. close to MR2.
I will try to add longs if price comes back to 115 to test MR1 from the upside, maybe the intraday will provide other ops. at weekly pivots or so.
ATM price is reacting to BFly Sell H4 + Negative divergence and candles suggest that this move should continue for a while. I won't take any short positions until levels (extensions) D1 are completed at the top.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy d1 abcd.png Size: 48 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy h4.png Size: 47 KB
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #935,865
  • Nov 15, 2014 10:08am Nov 15, 2014 10:08am
Quoting ericnyamu
{quote} we closed ABOVE last moths low. THATS BULLISH
don't be too sure..
eur/usd once made hammer on weekly timeframes, but prices continue to drop like hell..
There's nothing news to support your BULLISH view
Forex as Leverage
  • #935,866
  • Edited 12:04pm Nov 15, 2014 11:33am | Edited 12:04pm
Quoting ericnyamu
{quote} what if i told you that's its true Dragis trades forex and just looks at the charts ?
i think u just did. i personally dont have a clue about his trading. i could imagine he could trade either direction. one with trend, the other w/o.

your not trading against me. my only competition is the market and myself. i trade my plan, i win when i win, and i lose when i lose. my plan from 9 days ago was posted. when we go to X i was looking to short. As a normal bearish setup. it may blow up in my face, but its still my plan. 2522 was mentioned 9+ days ago.. Fridays close was below, so i still stick to the plan. some say bullish, i wasn't popular when i closed most of my shorts starting at 2407, 2383 making a LL. and looking to reload 2516/22 up to 257x.. and i suspect this wont make me popular either, regardless on how my trade turns out. some will not like it.. i know many bulls are shooting for 26xx.. i see it myself. i even told them when to long if they were bullish.
what i dont see is any posting -2473 as a retrace.. even if bullish, that may end up being 70 pips since high.. i dont know, i just speculate a lot.
we will see how it turns out. trading closes still myself, right or wrong. and still trading for 2336 and less
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #935,867
  • Nov 15, 2014 12:36pm Nov 15, 2014 12:36pm
http://prntscr.com/56o98z

The best entry for yesterday LONG
Trading 24/h
  • #935,868
  • Nov 15, 2014 12:41pm Nov 15, 2014 12:41pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} your not trading against me. my only competition is the market and myself. i trade my plan, i win when i win, and i lose when i lose.
Contrary to what many ego-driven retail traders believe, the market is not a zero-sum game of wills and predictions when it comes to specific trades and gains. The entire market may be zero-sum in the end (though it is not actually, because new money is being issued all the time), but every individual trade is a win-win to the individual traders. Every trader enters because one sees an opportunity to win money and exits either to take profit or to protect one's money (which is still a win decision compared to taking a larger loss). It's never a one-on-one game, either, because you open with one counterparty and exit with another. The market is a fair game of opportunity for everybody to take what is he/she feels entitled to and capable of taking, through careful planning and execution of their plans in a systematic way. Those who bring their small egos and want to make them bigger on the market and want every trade or most trades to be winners, or be champions of prediction, should be prepared to suffer lots of pain and disappointment.
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #935,869
  • Nov 15, 2014 12:53pm Nov 15, 2014 12:53pm
afaik i only trade against the other clients at my brokerage, lol. somehow i doubt my orders reach the true market.
  • #935,870
  • Nov 15, 2014 2:36pm Nov 15, 2014 2:36pm
I think the time of the euro has come. have a great weekend everyone
  • #935,871
  • Nov 15, 2014 3:30pm Nov 15, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting StopRunFx
{quote} Contrary to what many ego-driven retail traders believe, the market is not a zero-sum game of wills and predictions when it comes to specific trades and gains. The entire market may be zero-sum in the end (though it is not actually, because new money is being issued all the time), but every individual trade is a win-win to the individual traders. Every trader enters because one sees an opportunity to win money and exits either to take profit or to protect one's money (which is still a win decision compared to taking a larger loss)....
Well said...are you familiar with the "Theory of Equilibriums" as proven by John Nash?
Or possibly John Chen's J-Charts analysis?
I may not be right...BUT, I am never wrong
  • #935,872
  • Nov 15, 2014 11:05pm Nov 15, 2014 11:05pm
Quoting Chanlie
{quote} don't be too sure.. eur/usd once made hammer on weekly timeframes, but prices continue to drop like hell.. There's nothing news to support your BULLISH view
Agree.
For now, it's better to just enjoy the weekend, monday is not coming yet. lol
Let the market comes to you!
  • #935,873
  • Nov 16, 2014 12:28am Nov 16, 2014 12:28am
a truth about Forex trading. NO HG is exist

extract from 'trading price action trends' BY AL BROOKS.


If you think about it, trading is a zero-sum game and it is impossible to have a zero-sum game where rules
consistently work. If they worked, everyone would use them and then there would be no one on the other side of
the trade. Therefore, the trade could not exist. Guidelines are very helpful but reliable rules cannot exist, and this
usually very troubling to a trader starting out who wants to believe that trading is a game that can be very
profitable if only you can come up with just the right set of rules. All rules work some of the time, and usually just
enough to fool you into believing that you just need to tweak them a little to get them to work all of the
thme. You are trying to create a trading god who will protect you, but you are fooling yourself and looking for an
easy solution to a game where only hard solutions work. You are competing against the smartest people in the
world, and if you are smart enough to come up with a foolproof rule set, so are they, and then everyone is faced
the zero-sum game dilemma. You cannot make money trading unless you are flexible, because you need to go
where the market is going, and the market is extremely flexible. It can bend in every direction and for much longer
than most would ever imagine. It can also reverse repeatedly every few bars for a long, long time. Finally, it can
and will do everything in between. Never get upset by this, and just accept it as reality and admire it as part of the
beauty of the game.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #935,874
  • Nov 16, 2014 2:34am Nov 16, 2014 2:34am
Quoting Spartanholds
{quote} Well said...are you familiar with the "Theory of Equilibriums" as proven by John Nash? Or possibly John Chen's J-Charts analysis?
Yes, the Nash Equilibrium is a general game theory concept but applies to markets in terms of weighing the bull case against the bear case, and particularly taking into account the interests of bears and bulls on different timeframes, long-term vs short-term, chasers vs those in profit or loss vs those on the sidelines. Nash got the Nobel price for it. He was primarily developing the theory for the context of war, but in market context I think it finds reflection in price action analysis on multiple timeframes. The Chen charts I didn't know, thanks for alerting. At first glance they look like a version of Market Profile, which I think is the most accurate tool for identifying true support and resistance levels. Not using Market Profile yet, but will probably get round to learning it at some point.
"To the busy day / To the idle play"
  • #935,875
  • Nov 16, 2014 7:26am Nov 16, 2014 7:26am
Hi guys, I am a noob here and only started forex trading 2 months ago. Please excuse me if my line of questioning is dumb. I have a short EURUSD position which is about 1/3 of my account and doing well but I am worried about the prospect of a euro breakup. Please correct me if I am wrong but during the last euro crisis the euro went to 1205? So from what I can gather, the general expectation is that the ECB will dither around until there is another crisis and they will have to do something again and the euro will do a round trip and retest the previous all time low. Which would be fantastic if it happened.

I was wondering, is there not a significant risk that a peripheral country might start to want to try to leave the euro at some point? Would this not be bullish for the euro? The peripheral countries seem to have high unemployment and pain with no gain, so at some stage one of them one would expect would make a move to leave. I am worried this would blow the euro up, in a literal way, fragment it and the remainder would appreciate. With a peripheral country leaving, the other peripherals would too, leaving the stronger core (with Germany) which would appreciate. What are people's thoughts? Otherwise what is the endgame?

Thanks for posting your thoughts if you do.
  • #935,876
  • Nov 16, 2014 7:42am Nov 16, 2014 7:42am
Lets see if the SNB buys euros again like it did on Friday.
  • #935,877
  • Nov 16, 2014 9:01am Nov 16, 2014 9:01am
Quoting nonlinear
Lets see if the SNB buys euros again like it did on Friday.
thats the weird thing.... SNB wasnt buying the EURO on friday....
somebody was dumping the dollar....
i wonder if its anything to do with the coming week ahead sparking dollar bulls into profit taking...
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
FxTyrant M-Series (Live - Darwinex) All Time Return: 0.7%
  • #935,878
  • Nov 16, 2014 9:57am Nov 16, 2014 9:57am
Quoting Ill-b-back
{quote} It works both ways. PA/currency value has as much affect on policy and market stability as policy/market stability has on PA. When value moves too far from a stable/economically effective mean (as it clearly did prior to the crash), policy decisions are implemented to protect economic health. This move away from a healthy value may also reflect oversights that allowed it to happen. Oversights such as not regulating bank activity to prevent melt down (such as subprime investment madness). obviously currency value affects investment, imports/exports,...
True. Both ways has its own responsibility. In my view, News is a scapegoat for PA.

Interestingly, you will have live demo this week. Mr. Draghi giving opening speech (on Monday) and Closing speech (on Friday) this week. Is that to reverse the trend or create history? Wait and See.
  • #935,879
  • Edited 11:10am Nov 16, 2014 10:05am | Edited 11:10am
Quoting ciptard
{quote} Agree. For now, it's better to just enjoy the weekend, monday is not coming yet. lol
Monday will coming
Lol
Salam Kenal
Forex as Leverage
  • #935,880
  • Nov 16, 2014 10:16am Nov 16, 2014 10:16am
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} thats the weird thing.... SNB wasnt buying the EURO on friday.... somebody was dumping the dollar.... i wonder if its anything to do with the coming week ahead sparking dollar bulls into profit taking...
Correct
Forex as Leverage
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