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Trading Made Simple

  • #43,941
  • Nov 14, 2014 10:20am Nov 14, 2014 10:20am
Quoting Direwolf
{quote} Sajmon. Those 2 TDI you have are obviously using different settings. The top one being the default one most TMS traders use. The bottom one is Dean Malone's settings which is smoother, has wider swing and updates faster. I suggest you only pick 1 and get yourself familiar with that. Now about your AUDNZD trade. 1. It's not a good idea to take H4 trades this late Friday evening. The market will close soon. Unless you're planning to hold over the weekend which is not recommended. 2. You're selling into the oversold zone. Not recommended. 3....
ok, thanks to the great
How do you know that it is oversold?
When closed as it does not go our way?
  • #43,942
  • Nov 14, 2014 10:56am Nov 14, 2014 10:56am
Quoting Kouroushi
It's the 2nd Friday in the raw that despite USD strength, big money's profit taking kills a lot. All USD data was good again today but look at Gold, it's hit lot's of stops like last weekend.
as a very small retail trader I don't have the information to trade any data - if I would have any idea about positions, orderbook, order flow - as for instance the big players like Deutsche Bank, Citi ... have - maybe I could trade that (by the way - I'm sure they and some others can). Furthermore, it's difficult to assess what is market expectation and what is already factored in current price - I DON'T HAVE ANY IDEA - I define myself as the one who is the last person to know about this. Having that in mind I concentrate about the only single information I have so far (and even this is delayed in favor of my broker) - it's Price and some derivatives - that's the reason why BigE mentioned in his introduction that he became successful as he started to trade the H4-Chart. There you can trade what is obeservable even for retail traders like we are - trend and momentum without to much noise. That's the reason, why I like the TMS idea very much - not because it's easy - Trading isn't easy (not to me) but because H4 in combination with TMS I'm able to reduce the noice and stress level - and I don't care whether its profit taking or whatever reason - I just go with market momentum

Wish you green pips and a nice weekend
Never give up!!
  • #43,943
  • Nov 14, 2014 11:08am Nov 14, 2014 11:08am
Haendlerin,

I just wanted to pipe in & say that was a great post!
Your on your way to being very successful...
Have a good weekend

sj
  • #43,944
  • Nov 14, 2014 11:35am Nov 14, 2014 11:35am
Quoting Haendlerin
{quote} as a very small retail trader I don't have the information to trade any data - if I would have any idea about positions, orderbook, order flow - as for instance the big players like Deutsche Bank, Citi ... have - maybe I could trade that (by the way - I'm sure they and some others can). Furthermore, it's difficult to assess what is market expectation and what is already factored in current price - I DON'T HAVE ANY IDEA - I define myself as the one who is the last person to know about this. Having that in mind I concentrate about the only...
Hi Haendlerin & Snarlyjack
Please don't repeat the stereotypes, I & most of people in this thread know all about this stuff.
Instead, have a look at Gold chart in the time frame you like, and tell me please could you expect today's & last Friday's fast & big bullish movement???
  • #43,945
  • Nov 14, 2014 11:36am Nov 14, 2014 11:36am
Quoting snarlyjack
Haendlerin, I just wanted to pipe in & say that was a great post! Your on your way to being very successful... Have a good weekend sj
Hi Snarlyjack,

thank's a lot for your compliments and for all your input you gave to that thread

have a nice weekend, too
haendlerin
Never give up!!
  • #43,946
  • Nov 14, 2014 11:40am Nov 14, 2014 11:40am
Quoting likica
oil short on M5 M15 for 45 green {image}
Was good friday after all, one trade for me and just a little scalp for +14 , Gold made the best move today on my charts, and had almost 2 opportunities to get long onboard
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #43,947
  • Nov 14, 2014 11:56am Nov 14, 2014 11:56am
Quoting Kouroushi
{quote} Hi Haendlerin & Snarlyjack Please don't repeat the stereotypes, I & most of people in this thread know all about this stuff. Instead, have a look at Gold chart in the time frame you like, and tell me please could you expect today's & last Friday's fast & big bullish movement???
Sorry,

don't wanted to offend you or come up with stereotypes - looking at TMS I'm looking at H4 and M30 TDI in one Chart - M30 Chart Priceline showed me a divergence at 2 GMT and was somewhere at the 30 - Level - so I would expect some rebound anyway. H4 TDI Priceline was slightly rising at the same time - coming from 40 Level to the upside - therefrom I wouldn't expect more bearish pressure. Looking at H4 TDI alone - yeap you would get a fake - but again - looking at market structure what we've got so far was a simple double low at 1146 with a very sharp upmove from that level. Having said that - that's exactly the reason why trading is not simple to me - just trading a break of signal line by price line may get you treamondous results - but there is a very good reason why emanuell, snarlyjack and other senior contributers remember us to take a more hollistic view - I suspect it's because they made exactly the experience you made at your GOLD trade.

Anyway, as I said, I don't wanted to offend you or to tell any stereotypes - I just wanted to show my very personal view on that - which is that I stopped to look for any explanations but just try to be in line with market momentum and to grasp a slice of what the big boys doing there.

Wish you green pips and a nice weekend
Never give up!!
  • #43,948
  • Edited 2:30pm Nov 14, 2014 1:46pm | Edited 2:30pm
Quoting Kouroushi
{quote} Hi Haendlerin & Snarlyjack Please don't repeat the stereotypes, I & most of people in this thread know all about this stuff. Instead, have a look at Gold chart in the time frame you like, and tell me please could you expect today's & last Friday's fast & big bullish movement???
Hi Kouroushi & Haendlerin. In the currency and commodity markets things happen for a reason, it's a matter of figuring out what that reason is and oftentimes it's nothing to do with a fib level or crossover of a laggard indicator which follows price. So why did prices change so suddenly this Friday afternoon. Probably because in Australia we have the G20 meeting. Ahead of this meeting late this afternoon (UK time) the institutions bailed out of US dollar positions thus weakening the dollar. You could see it the moment it started to happen on the dollar crosses. EUR and GBP which had been in freefall suddenly strengthened against the dollar. Gold too strengthened, gold is priced in dollars so if the dollar goes down you need more dollars to buy the same amount of gold and the price goes up. But it wasn't just a weaker dollar. Take the Euro, I went up like it was going to the moon, up and up. What was going on here in addition to a weaker dollar was an institutional squeeze on all the many Euro shorts, easy money for the institutions going for and taking out all the stops. Could be wrong but my feeling is that after this squeeze trade early next week we could see the Euro fall again and I'll be looking to go short. The thing to be cautious of though is I think that Draghi is to say something next week on QE.
  • #43,949
  • Nov 14, 2014 4:26pm Nov 14, 2014 4:26pm
Quoting nods80
Nearly at 60 pips but hit resistance. Thinking of cutting and running? any suggestion? {image}
Took 70 pips before i closed.
Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change. Stephen Hawking
  • #43,950
  • Nov 14, 2014 6:21pm Nov 14, 2014 6:21pm
Quoting sajmon
{quote} ok, thanks to the great How do you know that it is oversold? When closed as it does not go our way?
Sajmon, you need to know what TDI is telling you. I wrote about it in my journal here if you want to learn more.
Also check out Dean Malone's explanation, he is the creator of TDI. Note that his method is slightly different than TMS.
Everything you can imagine, is real - Pablo Picasso
  • #43,951
  • Nov 14, 2014 6:45pm Nov 14, 2014 6:45pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
Another example EURUSD 3-bars PCRF... this one LO has set the low for the session, but not for today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H1 3-bars PCRF.png Size: 33 KB
{image}
Hi Folks,

It is weekend time again. If you want to spend some time and do some backtesting and learn a few things how to trade H1, then allow me to suggest look at that post post above. I mention LO has set the low of the session, but not for the day.
Now below I post a bigger picture chart of EURUSD H1.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H1 week 46 POMO.png Size: 62 KB


Your practice :-

1) is to look for the LO candle and following that LO candle and determine when LO has set the high or low of the session (not the day) and how you would trade that using TMS H1.

2) learn to look for support and resistance reversals using the TDI. Eric did mention few times in the past, look for recent places where pevious support and resistance were.

3) study those Day Open lines and see the D1 candles on H1 chart zoom out view. Do you see the Day Inside Bars? These are consolidation for those tradimng the higher TF charts.

4) using the Day Open lines, you can also identify when market starts to go sideways and also the 200EMA on H1 chart good to use. I mentioned before, when the 200EMA catches up with the price, both the Day Open and the 200EMA hangs out together for days. This wekk 46 is a good example of sideways market type.

5) write down 5 simple rules for your own H1 trading and share them if you want to.

regards,

Have a Good Weekend with your family and loved ones.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #43,952
  • Nov 14, 2014 8:35pm Nov 14, 2014 8:35pm
Hi Emmanuel i consider taking a long trade on EU daily,... whats ur opinion? thanks in advance

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2014-11-15_03-28-15.png Size: 49 KB
  • #43,953
  • Nov 14, 2014 8:35pm Nov 14, 2014 8:35pm
Quoting moretti12
Good job Emmanuel.... What is your percentage risk on every trade you take and do you only trade those 4 pairs on 1h/4h??

Hi Moretti,

Thanks.
I usually rsik 1% to 2% max for each currency pair I decided to trade with.
The maximum risk per week is 5% when I trade several pairs in the same week.
For the account which I posted my results, I decided to trade only the four pairs starting in week 45, i.e. 3 Nov week.
Dividing the 5% into 4 currency pairs, I risk 1.2% per currency pair.
I trade with Multiple Entries / Multiple Exits when I do position trading on Day chart TF.
The accounting for MT4 is that each trade closed is reported as one trade in the Account History. For example, when we open 1 position and closed with 2 exits, in the Account History we see 2 trades closed.

the last 2 weeks, I open a new trade with a 0.25% risk and I do my position sizing based on 0.25%. I don't like to report number of pips win / loss beacsue the $$$ and % growth is better what I like to measure my trading business.

The other thing is also the 10% profit cycle per 20-trading days. I will post and explain why I choose this profit cycle method and how that it help me.

Hope this explains.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #43,954
  • Nov 14, 2014 8:41pm Nov 14, 2014 8:41pm
Quoting moretti12
Hi Emmanuel i consider taking a long trade on EU daily,... whats ur opinion? thanks in advance {image}

Hi ,

Yes, I see that on your chart posted.
Last week we saw PA supported at and bounce off some key levels.
But, go to MN and W1 charts, and look at the historical swing levels on both these chart TFs.
I will update my Big Picture Plan tomorrow London 1500hours and lets compare our trade plans for next week.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD D1 key levels week 46.png Size: 30 KB


regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #43,955
  • Nov 14, 2014 9:07pm Nov 14, 2014 9:07pm
EJ 4h, for Emmanuel

my bounce entry exercise. it's also open to other people who could provide some pointers.
p.s the red line is the "entry" candle for bounce
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPYH4.png Size: 78 KB
Daniel
  • #43,956
  • Nov 14, 2014 11:02pm Nov 14, 2014 11:02pm
Quoting snarlyjack
Good morning Tms, Here it is Friday morning (my time) & I just got up to check my trades. For those of you that have been watching this trade (gbp/usd) I just liquidated out of the trade for a gain of 231 pips. It was a 2 day hold. This is exactly how Eelfranz would have traded it. Put in your trade, let it "simmer & cook" & liquidate out before the weekend starts. I can feel Eelfranz smile down at me and saying thanks SJ for sharing Have a good weekend everybody!!! {image}
Hi snarlyjack, congrats on the green pips! I really like this idea of "simmer & cook" on the 4H (gear up D) TF as it washes over noise - just cruising along on the highway of pips... lol. I really appreciate your advice and experience mate, thanks!!! Have a great weekend
  • #43,957
  • Nov 15, 2014 5:58am Nov 15, 2014 5:58am
Quoting Tanglewood
{quote} Hi Kouroushi & Haendlerin. In the currency and commodity markets things happen for a reason, it's a matter of figuring out what that reason is and oftentimes it's nothing to do with a fib level or crossover of a laggard indicator which follows price. So why did prices change so suddenly this Friday afternoon. Probably because in Australia we have the G20 meeting. Ahead of this meeting late this afternoon (UK time) the institutions bailed out of US dollar positions thus weakening the dollar. You could see it the moment it started to happen...
Hi Tanglewood,

I rememeber a very nice discussion where Jim Cramer from CNBC explained in big detail some Floor Traders that it was ridicoulous that the DowJones was rising after worse than expected NFP report. They looked at him and just gave him one single but from their perspective very true answer - "Jim, you may be right with all of that - but I trade what I see - no shoulda, woulda or anything like that".

Wish you green pips and let's go ahead with TMS
Never give up!!
  • #43,958
  • Nov 15, 2014 9:19am Nov 15, 2014 9:19am
GU is sitting @61.8%fib (Weekly chart) opportunities for scalping.... note that it s still very bearish (tdi under 32 level)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU @61.8fib view on 14.11.14 (weekly chart).png Size: 48 KB
Appreciation is the key to wealth and happiness
  • #43,959
  • Nov 15, 2014 9:51am Nov 15, 2014 9:51am
Good morning everyone,

It's Saturday morning & were out of the markets thinking about next week.
Let's continue with our gbp/usd example.

Their are a couple of things that you need to look at. First of all imho, trading is
a very visual process. It helps if you have good eyes & can see everything on the chart.

Second, Emmanuel teaches to look at the 200 ema. If price is below the 200 ema (bearish),
if price is above the 200 ema (bullish). Now price might go up to the 200 ema (counter trend move),
but it is important to know where the 200 ema is. We need to know if we are taking a
counter trend trade or if we are moving with the over all trend of the market.

Let's look at 3 charts. The weekly, daily & 4 hour charts. This is the "top down approach"
to the market that Emmanuel teaches that will help us gage were we are. Then we
can go hmmm...

I hope this helps you!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDWeekly.png Size: 71 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDDaily.png Size: 64 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSDH4.png Size: 67 KB
  • #43,960
  • Nov 15, 2014 10:55am Nov 15, 2014 10:55am
Quoting snarlyjack
Good morning everyone, It's Saturday morning & were out of the markets thinking about next week. Let's continue with our gbp/usd example. Their are a couple of things that you need to look at. First of all imho, trading is a very visual process. It helps if you have good eyes & can see everything on the chart. Second, Emmanuel teaches to look at the 200 ema. If price is below the 200 ema (bearish), if price is above the 200 ema (bullish). Now price might go up to the 200 ema (counter trend move), but it is important to know where the 200 ema is....
On H4, TDI is oversold area but D1 & W1 is clearly heading down. Wait for selling trigger on H4 and continue to monitor the D1 and let cook a delicious dish. PA may cross the PAC and touch the Long Guppy and later it will bounce. PA will make a consolidation/ Sideways movement. I will be looking for Sell.

SJ,
Do you take the trade based upon H4 signal or just D1 in this case? How many pairs do you monitor. I asked you this because interested in trading D1. As I don't have the time to monitor H4 during office hours. D1 will be ideal for me and the Guppies will give a better understanding of over all trend. I also have Guppies on my chart and off course TDI is the King of all. Which are the pairs do you think usually produce a trending PA?

Regards,AB
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