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  • #935,841
  • Nov 14, 2014 2:35pm Nov 14, 2014 2:35pm
Quoting fxtyrant
{quote} Trust yourself, your on the right track! Setup a trade plan where you are comfortable with the risks
what do you believe the opening on sunday (monday "your time") will be?
  • #935,842
  • Nov 14, 2014 2:38pm Nov 14, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} early Monday dragis will speak. whats the odds of him saying all is ok? i say slim.. 2516/2576 is/was a norm. -2522 close is probably bearish. {image}
i didnt put him on my "equation" as its later on the day...he was dovish when the PA was at the same level as it's now (more or less...) why shouldnt he "keep it" that way?

btw whats your thought on Sunday's open?


Ps we have "hawkish" Fis(c)her talking in a bit...lets see if we are going to "catch any fish" out of him
  • #935,843
  • Nov 14, 2014 2:40pm Nov 14, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} early Monday dragis will speak. whats the odds of him saying all is ok? i say slim.. 2516/2576 is/was a norm, before 2336. -2522 close is probably bearish. {image}
It will be 6 hours later London open, so we may see up till he start to speak.
  • #935,844
  • Nov 14, 2014 3:08pm Nov 14, 2014 3:08pm
interesting

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Fitch revises Belgium's outlook to negative from stable; affirms at AA
  • #935,845
  • Nov 14, 2014 3:10pm Nov 14, 2014 3:10pm
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} It will be 6 hours later London open, so we may see up till he start to speak.
It still feels to me that E/U won't be very volatile - or as volatile as today's NY session spikes. It's only when NY is in play that we seem to be getting these annoying spikes for no reason at all that ruin the normal course of trends.
Enter Signature
  • #935,846
  • Nov 14, 2014 3:10pm Nov 14, 2014 3:10pm
looks like big boys are holding price up for a reason, which may be simply that this pair is going to drop nicely, so before we see new lows quickly, what else to do? but to push price back up a little bit so that not to have such a fall out to 1.22 in 1 week.... lets see what happens next week

i expect bearish momentum to resume....

wow this pullback was tough
  • #935,847
  • Nov 14, 2014 3:30pm Nov 14, 2014 3:30pm
Quoting san99
{quote} It still feels to me that E/U won't be very volatile - or as volatile as today's NY session spikes. It's only when NY is in play that we seem to be getting these annoying spikes for no reason at all that ruin the normal course of trends.
There are at least 2 hours London and NY overlap.
  • #935,848
  • Nov 14, 2014 3:49pm Nov 14, 2014 3:49pm
Got a good piece of eurusd on the downside but got stopped out with the pop.... on the sideline now... imo the pop is too early but could be early bulls getting a head start on the move.. they hit a wall today @ 75% level = 1.2532

either way I will wait after Nov 18/19 to decide my position... next week should be interesting... happy pippin weekend :-)
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"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #935,849
  • Nov 14, 2014 4:01pm Nov 14, 2014 4:01pm
Quoting san99
{quote} It still feels to me that E/U won't be very volatile - or as volatile as today's NY session spikes. It's only when NY is in play that we seem to be getting these annoying spikes for no reason at all that ruin the normal course of trends.
there is always a reason, whatever it is...the robots always finish to catch sellers from 2520 at their scalping game, or catch buyers Stop orders at 2543 xD...at 2520 it is over, you can't trade that level... 2 reasons why: 1)no serious resistance, just some spikes that tell you the up move is over for a while... 2) psychologic reason, people know about the up button now, they will be carefull next week...the market is a monster, it has nothing human, his only goal is to trap some guys who don't even know what they are doing...markets are for real... a few winners and a lot of loosers, the world has always been like this...
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #935,850
  • Nov 14, 2014 4:11pm Nov 14, 2014 4:11pm
looks like a 2518.2 print, below the 2522.3 and below 2539..close is above 2452 last weeks close. it just depends on what looks important to u. in the few last minutes, bulls gave up 2522. on the week close, bull side.. last week is engulfed bull. in a st 2516/76 is what happens before 2336 most times. have a good one.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #935,851
  • Nov 14, 2014 4:14pm Nov 14, 2014 4:14pm
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} there is always a reason, whatever it is...the robots always finish to catch sellers from 2520 at their scalping game, or catch buyers Stop orders at 2543 xD...at 2520 it is over, you can't trade that level... 2 reasons why: 1)no serious resistance, just some spikes that tell you the up move is over for a while... 2) psychologic reason, people know about the up button now, they will be carefull next week...the market is a monster, it has nothing human, his only goal is to trap some guys who don't even know what...
i love trading that level..2522.. later.. need closes
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #935,852
  • Edited 6:01pm Nov 14, 2014 4:22pm | Edited 6:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i love trading that level..2522.. later.. need closes
ofc later, i didn't mean that price in general, i meant we can't trade this price now xD...it is 50/50, i never bet on week end, everything can happen... i have alrdy burnt 1/2 of my 1st account with a stupid unexpected 130pips gap in may 2012 just a month before euro crisis, i took it as a lesson for letting a trade open over the Week end, i will never do it again...come and watch the first trap that ruined my first real account as noob trader...the support at 1.30xx got burnt by this gap without any reason (before euro crisis so no reason to drop)... it open 60pips lower and go 2950... RSI was nearly at support, MA is still up stoch just ended the down move on lower Timeframe... nothing that can make you expect a big gap drop+ big fat support break in a single week end without news...and still it happened, i raged for years, and today im still raging this holy s..t monster of market...so YES im a RAGE TRADER, i want the best price or nothing, i hate to lose money...i just understand W.buffet when he say there is only 2rules: 1) never lose money 2) don't forget the rule...
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DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #935,853
  • Edited 5:41pm Nov 14, 2014 5:29pm | Edited 5:41pm
Quoting TheNoob
{quote} ofc later, i didn't mean that price in general, i meant we can't trade this price now xD...it is 50/50, i never bet on week end, everything can happen... i have alrdy burnt 1/2 of my 1st account with a stupid unexpected 130pips gap in may 2012 just a month before euro crisis, i took it as a lesson for letting a trade open over the Week end, i will never do it again...come and watch the first trap that ruined my first real account as noob trader...the support at 1.30xx got burnt by this gap without any reason (before euro crisis so no reason...
today im still trying to repair that error xD... i abandonned trading that day, Gquit and never cared about Financial markets for 6months just for this stupid gap...
listen gator and all important members, they are true when they say do not try to get rich quickly... you always finish like me...my 2nd lost account is another story that i don't want to speak with you... not now not today... bye
DONT ASK ME QUESTION, BUT U CAN BAN ME I DONT CARE!
  • #935,854
  • Nov 15, 2014 4:19am Nov 15, 2014 4:19am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} early Monday dragis will speak. whats the odds of him saying all is ok? i say slim.. 2516/2576 is/was a norm, before 2336. -2522 close is probably bearish. {image}
i still got this eerie feeling this thing is gona go down just because of where the EURUSD rejected
We live in a finite world with infinite possibilities.
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  • #935,855
  • Nov 15, 2014 4:39am Nov 15, 2014 4:39am
check us index. It was a total usd selloff, when us market opened.
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No emotions, just trade
  • #935,856
  • Edited 5:15am Nov 15, 2014 4:50am | Edited 5:15am
Inserted Video


He indicates whilst technical would suggest a strong rebound is possible, fundamentals means that this is unlikely. I've also seen that echoed elsewhere and the medium term outlook is still bearish.

Edit: I've also seen that over the past few months of this decline there have been many small corrections/consolidation periods. At most they gain 2 cents before continuing to fall so I don't know why people are predicting 1.28+ this time. Is it not more likely to find strong resistance around 1.264 (October support) and then drop?
Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #935,857
  • Nov 15, 2014 4:58am Nov 15, 2014 4:58am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i love trading that level..2522.. later.. need closes
Just curious: are you still in, or waiting to re-enter? I entered, with a wide s/l, not my brightest hour...
Fail better.
  • #935,858
  • Nov 15, 2014 5:05am Nov 15, 2014 5:05am
There really is no winning here other then staying in long term trades that are trending. I'm in because I started up at 1.35xx in July and won't exit completely until 1.20xx is broken which should be in Jan 2015. My big question is 2015-16 trading, closing my trade at 1.20xx might be premature.

That said holding any contracts on a day with 100 point loss is painful. No matter how much you've made it in the past.
  • #935,859
  • Nov 15, 2014 7:47am Nov 15, 2014 7:47am
Quoting Magicmen
{quote} I am not sure. I usually determine news based on PA. Because I strongly believe PA drives news (not the other way round)
It works both ways.
PA/currency value has as much affect on policy and market stability as policy/market stability has on PA.
When value moves too far from a stable/economically effective mean (as it clearly did prior to the crash), policy decisions are implemented to protect economic health. This move away from a healthy value may also reflect oversights that allowed it to happen. Oversights such as not regulating bank activity to prevent melt down (such as subprime investment madness).
obviously currency value affects investment, imports/exports, interest rates, spending, savings, employment etc.

So I think on an important level you are right, PA/Value plays an important role in determining news outcomes
Particularly when its all bullish with only one correction
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #935,860
  • Nov 15, 2014 8:17am Nov 15, 2014 8:17am
USDCAD
Retracement continues.
W1: Price reached 1.27 Extension + MR1 + Yearly R2 and those two last candles don't look very bullish.
This is the type of situation where a larger retracement could be on it's way.

D1: Here we have nice confluence for long trade with .618 Ret (not reached yet) + MPP, I would say it's a good chance to test whether larger retracement down will happen or continuation up to 1.618 Ext Weekly at 1.17 plus.

H4: We could have 3 Bullish drives pattern and reversal should start between 1.1240-19 area, last one is 1.618 Ext H4, I want to see nice reversal candles and long wicks at the bottom. There is also a trendline (I don't usually use them) and breaking below will look naturally bearish.
CPI on Friday 21st will give it a push.
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