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  • #934,381
  • Nov 9, 2014 5:51am Nov 9, 2014 5:51am
First of all I am new here, but I have been trading currencies since about 2004, I seem to have all the bad habits of emotional traders but if nothing else by luck I've managed to survive with my capital intact.

Far from predicting the future I see trends and place contracts accordingly. There's a skip beat pattern that's been playing out here since about July, 100-150 drop followed by a 50-100 point retraction. I am not a technical trader I look at charts but mainly move on fundamentals.

EUR/USD should be range trading between 1.2520 and 1.2380 for the next 3 weeks. If you are short above 1.2520 you should be fine, you will need another
30% margin to be able to hold positions that may move against you till 1.2650 range, none of these numbers are exact most are +- about 10%

At about the end of the year you should see a move downward, by about Feb - Mar it's possible the EUR/USD will be 1.18xx trading under 1.20xx I suspect by

March if not sooner.

What's interesting is that 1.18xx may not be the bottom, I suspect the EUR and USD are about to switch places, by 2016 Jan the dollar will be worth more then the EUR

That said I've been short since 1.3xxx in July and am trying to find an exit. Any comments?

Does anyone else think it's possible we will go back over 1.25xx this week? Any fundamental that can help point the way?

I strive to be a .70 trader as that seems to be the average for honest long term success....
  • #934,382
  • Nov 9, 2014 6:12am Nov 9, 2014 6:12am
Quoting Forex_Math
{quote} Easy to see that if you see more sellers meaning market direction going down otherwise more buyers the market direction is expected to go up. However one open position indicators are simply not enough to conclude this because there are millions if not billion traders out there. The indicators on forexfactory only showing a few of those. You can gather good conclusion if you use multiple open position indicators from OANDA, DukasCopy, etc. Refer to as many as possible and combine them with your indicators you might be able to sense something...
Thank you Forex Math. Where will you emphasis on, is't the % of the traders or % of the Lots (Volume)? If you observe the image for EURUSD there are more short than the long in term of % traders but there are more long than short in term of Lots. Vice versa for GBPUSD and for USDJPY I think is ok, less traders less lots for the Long and more traders more lots for the short.
  • #934,383
  • Nov 9, 2014 6:32am Nov 9, 2014 6:32am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} If most are long, does it mean it will go up? If most are short, does it mean it will go down? What it means if number of bulls keeps on increasing as the time goes by? What it means if number of bears keeps on increasing as the time goes by? What it means if most traders switch their positions from short to long? or vice versa Where can I find the information about intended profit targets of most, if most are long? or for that of shorts, if most are short? What are the other qualities of a good information, in addition to: Relevance, Completeness,...
Good questions Chicky.
  • #934,384
  • Nov 9, 2014 7:23am Nov 9, 2014 7:23am
There is my crazy analysis for eu.
EU will get crazy down within 1-2 week?
guess below 1.1 maybe 1?

I hope to get receive any comment from anyone.
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  • #934,385
  • Nov 9, 2014 7:39am Nov 9, 2014 7:39am
Quoting paipai888
There is my crazy analysis for eu. EU will get crazy down within 1-2 week? guess below 1.1 maybe 1? I hope to get receive any comment from anyone. {image}
1456+pips in 2 weeks? I'll have whatever you're smoking/sniffing bud
Why sell the bottoms when you can buy the tops...
  • #934,386
  • Nov 9, 2014 7:44am Nov 9, 2014 7:44am
Quoting paipai888
There is my crazy analysis for eu. EU will get crazy down within 1-2 week? guess below 1.1 maybe 1? I hope to get receive any comment from anyone. {image}
The time period is wrong.

We are talking about longer term analysis.

It can reach your target next year, any way in some broker the sell side on EURUSD is positive, so actually you can keep open your sell for as much as needed.
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #934,387
  • Nov 9, 2014 8:50am Nov 9, 2014 8:50am
Quoting paipai888
There is my crazy analysis for eu. EU will get crazy down within 1-2 week? guess below 1.1 maybe 1? I hope to get receive any comment from anyone. {image}
In 1-3 weeks it may come down to 1.22x, but then I assume that it goes up again.
  • #934,388
  • Nov 9, 2014 9:15am Nov 9, 2014 9:15am
thank you every body .

as far as time period. i mean within 1-2 weeks, it need get crazy down.

as wave theory,
1. last upward before few month did end with ending diagonal.
so, maybe eu need go below 1.2030 , that low last in monthly chart.
2. After running correction, it need extend more than 161.8% , so, after (1), got good down red (2)->blue 1.
3. Flat occur in 2 wave in common.
last month's upward correction did end with flat with c failer, that notice extended wave of previous.
4. third wave need fast more than first wave.
so, i guess next move need down more 800pips within a month (red (2)->blue 1. around a month, 800pips)
5. current eu's down. from blue 2.
very complex, it is not certain impulses, but is going down. maybe running correction, that notice extended wave.

welcome any comment in eu.

Thank you.
  • #934,389
  • Nov 9, 2014 9:24am Nov 9, 2014 9:24am
hi all - im a new trader so correct me if im off here but the sentiment in the eurozone seems poor, germany probably looking at slow down, spain/italy not doing well, v US possible interest rate hike, SnP and DOW up -- is it likely euro will continue to fall to 120 support level / hence short sell down until reaches this level then go long?
  • #934,390
  • Nov 9, 2014 9:56am Nov 9, 2014 9:56am
Quoting paipai888
There is my crazy analysis for eu. EU will get crazy down within 1-2 week? guess below 1.1 maybe 1? I hope to get receive any comment from anyone. {image}
If we are playing crazy analysis, then why not go full crazy?
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  • #934,391
  • Nov 9, 2014 10:11am Nov 9, 2014 10:11am
There's no Lehman around the corner, unlike in 2008, for people to be getting all excited that E/U will plummet to 1.1 or A/U will crash to .75. They may yet reach these levels but not like overnight or even over the course of a month, without a potent stimulus. Even with the geopolitical threats, these are just that - "threats".
Enter Signature
  • #934,392
  • Nov 9, 2014 10:23am Nov 9, 2014 10:23am
Quoting Miguel.N
{quote}Next week -> plan A or Plan B !? ....so watch out guys -) {image}


Plan B.. we'll print a a new low 12205/12155 then start retracing as it'll be end of the year and end of the quarter

This weeks short I am going to try at 1.2492... stop 1.2516
  • #934,393
  • Nov 9, 2014 10:34am Nov 9, 2014 10:34am
http://www.forexlive.com/blog/2014/1...november-2014/
  • #934,394
  • Edited 11:04am Nov 9, 2014 10:53am | Edited 11:04am
Quoting Miguel.N
{quote}Next week -> plan A or Plan B !? ....so watch out guys -) {image}
Quoting RussJ
{quote} Plan B.. we'll print a a new low 12205/12155 then start retracing as it'll be end of the year and end of the quarter This weeks short I am going to try at 1.2492... stop 1.2516
...in fact to separate the 2 plans and to make it simple! ...and for sure it's going to be one of them and should be aggresive move ! ...so i hope you will enjoy the right ride ?! -)

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  • #934,395
  • Nov 9, 2014 11:04am Nov 9, 2014 11:04am
Gap up is coming ... www.xe.com ...
  • #934,396
  • Nov 9, 2014 11:17am Nov 9, 2014 11:17am
Quoting sERDAr
Gap up is coming ... www.xe.com ...
Yeah 20-25 pips http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=EUR&to=USD
But could also fill till the market opens.
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #934,397
  • Nov 9, 2014 11:19am Nov 9, 2014 11:19am
Quoting Miguel.N
{quote} {quote} ...in fact to separate the 2 plans and to make it simple! ...and for sure it's going to be one of them and should be aggresive move ! ...so i hope you will enjoy the right ride ?! -) {image} {image}
Im not professional as you but since in weekly price is coming back from a resistance BUT there is a mood for down in m15 ,5 ,1 as u say I think there will be an aggressive down ( news perhaps ) then uptrend begin .
People wont learn to post analysis in forums not "I think its down/up!"
  • #934,398
  • Nov 9, 2014 11:43am Nov 9, 2014 11:43am
You guys know if market is opening later still like last weekend?
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #934,399
  • Nov 9, 2014 11:43am Nov 9, 2014 11:43am
Guys what are your thoughts on the image below? The EURUSD is nearing the support that it hit in 2005, 10 and 12. Every time it has hit it before, it is has rebounded a long way up. Could it be worth buying when it starts to climb and should I even consider going past the normal 5% maximum and putting more of my equity in because the potential gains are so large?

Once I get in to profit, I could put in a break even stop loss so there wouldn't be much of a risk surely.
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Volatility makes me feel alive!
  • #934,400
  • Nov 9, 2014 11:54am Nov 9, 2014 11:54am
There may be trouble ahead 🎶

Wall Street Banks Have Been Hoarding Billions For One Legal Settlement — And It’s Almost Here
http://osnetdaily.com/2014/11/wall-s...s-almost-here/
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