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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #49,681
  • Nov 3, 2014 4:37pm Nov 3, 2014 4:37pm
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} will i still stand by my bullish action!! fundamental news coming from AUD won't be anything good for them plus with Japan coming out of holiday.. the bulls will come out to play first before the bears start scalping again!! it;s about to break 114 again to 11455
Absolutely. The pair is nothing but bullish. It will just take out as many as possible b4 resuming.

Gee, it's back at support, and has not breached it. Perfect place to BUY.

Also keeping my eyes on GBP/AUD for a BUY.
  • #49,682
  • Nov 3, 2014 4:39pm Nov 3, 2014 4:39pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Absolutely. The pair is nothing but bullish. It will just take out as many as possible b4 resuming. Gee, it's back at support, and has not breached it. Perfect place to BUY.
Although I mostly agree with the sentiments on the USDJPY and I mean this jokingly, but if I had a dollar for the times that people or institutions have said, "Perfect time to buy" makes me almost nervous to do so! LOL...anyway good luck from one Aussie ( I live in QLD, in Logan City) to another!!
  • #49,683
  • Nov 3, 2014 4:58pm Nov 3, 2014 4:58pm
Quoting four.owls
{quote} Although I mostly agree with the sentiments on the USDJPY and I mean this jokingly, but if I had a dollar for the times that people or institutions have said, "Perfect time to buy" makes me almost nervous to do so! LOL...anyway good luck from one Aussie ( I live in QLD, in Logan City) to another!!
I know what you mean, Four.Owls. That call was more so, crazily talking to myself.

I actually just exited from the GBP/JBP roller coaster (+9 pips, mindblowing, eh?), so I'll happily abstain - had enough of this bloody forex for at least a few hrs LOL.
  • #49,684
  • Nov 3, 2014 5:25pm Nov 3, 2014 5:25pm
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} I know what you mean, Four.Owls. That call was more so, crazily talking to myself. I actually just exited from the GBP/JBP roller coaster (+9 pips, mindblowing, eh?), so I'll happily abstain - had enough of this bloody forex for at least a few hrs LOL.
Yes and I hope you get some more. I tend to trade quite intensely, and after years I have a nice balance of trades up to half a day but now moving towards a more scalping approach as I have a high success rate but need to minimize damage control (the one big loser that wipes out 10 good trades). I just find shorter trades at this stage allow me to slowly build capital, keep losses small but having said that I am happy to park some funds in something that has growth potential. It's just that news can come out of the blue and things gap down or whatever! Sometimes we just need to have a day or 2 off!
  • #49,685
  • Nov 3, 2014 5:52pm Nov 3, 2014 5:52pm
Quoting four.owls
{quote} Yes and I hope you get some more. I tend to trade quite intensely, and after years I have a nice balance of trades up to half a day but now moving towards a more scalping approach as I have a high success rate but need to minimize damage control (the one big loser that wipes out 10 good trades). I just find shorter trades at this stage allow me to slowly build capital, keep losses small but having said that I am happy to park some funds in something that has growth potential. It's just that news can come out of the blue and things gap down...
Good luck with it, dude. Cheers.

Enjoy the Melbourne Cup, if you plan to watch.
  • #49,686
  • Nov 3, 2014 5:57pm Nov 3, 2014 5:57pm
2014.11.04 01:51:27 aso: It's true weak yen helps exporters but raises import costs, so will need to pay heed to its effects
2014.11.04 01:54:53 aso: Boj easing aimed at beating deflation; sees yen weakening as byproduct





from my point of view : JPY pairs should stay right where they are now.Even go bit lower.. 108-112 suitable level for usdjpy



PS! im short 113.85
Early to bed, early to rise, keeps you healthy, wealthy and wise.
  • #49,687
  • Nov 3, 2014 6:37pm Nov 3, 2014 6:37pm
113.60 as of now off a high of 114.22. Pullback or turn in direction ? As manipulated as this pair is at the moment I would say pullback with another push to the mid 114s and up to 115. Its riding high on momentum and the BOJ but as someone posted earlier there are a LOT of shorts in the 107-110 range and a LOT of longs who are 300-600 points up and have fingers nervously poised above the sell button to lock in profits. Wouldnt take much to start a cascade of sells and rapid drop in price. Technical levels and even fundamentals are a small part of this equation at the moment.
  • #49,688
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:05pm Nov 3, 2014 7:05pm
I see the Japanese bears opened with a fight... hopefully by Japan lunch time it will hit back at 114xxx range
  • #49,689
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:54pm Nov 3, 2014 7:54pm
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
Looks like the usdjpy rapid recovery upwards yesterday fell short. Atm it will need to break above 11380 in order to regain its yesterday upward momentum. While overall trend may still be bullish....how deep it retraces will likely affect its resolve to move upwards..as traders will need to be convinced of the continuity of the uptrend...and also some traders,spooked by the upmove rejection above 11400 level.. will likely readjust their views and posns of the mkt and in the process... disrupting the general undisputed view of a bull mkt held previously. What we may see may be a sideway moving mkt...consolidation... Personally, I would be
a little concern if price go below 11280 today ...which will take greter resolute to move get mkt consensus to move price to its fomer glory.
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #49,690
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:57pm Nov 3, 2014 7:57pm
Quoting EDG
Looks like the usdjpy rapid recovery upwards yesterday fell short. Atm it will need to break above 11380 in order to regain its yesterday upward momentum. While overall trend may still be bullish....how deep it retraces will likely affect its resolve to move upwards..as traders will need to be convinced of the continuity of the uptrend...and also some traders,spooked by the upmove rejection above 11400 level.. will likely readjust their views and posns of the mkt and in the process... disrupting the general undisputed view of a bull mkt held previously....
well fingers crossed it goes upward... its dancing around the 113.65 range another move to the 114 range will do me good before 330gmt when aud news comes out!!
  • #49,691
  • Nov 3, 2014 8:00pm Nov 3, 2014 8:00pm
  •  EDG
  • | Joined Feb 2007 | Status: Nothing is fixed. Keep an open mind | 229 Posts
Quoting poseikwame
{quote} well fingers crossed it goes upward... its dancing around the 113.65 range another move to the 114 range will do me good before 330gmt when aud news comes out!!
Hopefully green pips to you...nobody can know for sure how the mkt will play out. Will just have to see how it moves as the day goes.
Hindsight is useless if you never learn anything out from it
  • #49,692
  • Nov 3, 2014 8:05pm Nov 3, 2014 8:05pm
knowing this pair, it was a given the tokyo session was coming in trying to push price down a bit, all it is - a chance to reload longs

scalped 20 pips 3 times today off of 113.700 area with some orders, i dont scalp but im playing it safe at these levels so i dont get caught like i did in that sell off mid october

got 1 in at 113.5 now

long baby, long
  • #49,693
  • Nov 3, 2014 8:13pm Nov 3, 2014 8:13pm
This Friday NFP will re-ignite the rocket ??
  • #49,694
  • Nov 3, 2014 8:23pm Nov 3, 2014 8:23pm
Quoting pohchuan
This Friday NFP will re-ignite the rocket ??
hope so
  • #49,695
  • Nov 3, 2014 10:39pm Nov 3, 2014 10:39pm
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} hope so
Well BoJ Governor Kuroda is speaking at 9:30 PM tomorrow so that might spark some reaction. At least it's an non-tentative event so we can get our positions ready if we want to play the Japanese Roulette.
Make your losses in demo. Earn your profits live.
  • #49,696
  • Nov 3, 2014 11:11pm Nov 3, 2014 11:11pm
Pretty sure Kurodasan made it perfectly clear he wants to murder the yen... Local newspapers over here are calling for 120-130¥ .... Trying to encourage local businesses to amount inventories... Deflationary mindset is sort of reverse psychology, if the prices are all lower and always on sale, people over here think the economy isn't doing well, thus not spending, 60% of the economy, but if prices go higher, will the people magically be encouraged to buy more shit?
kamakazi talk me thinks...
さいよなら ￥ 💋
  • #49,697
  • Nov 4, 2014 12:14am Nov 4, 2014 12:14am
Looks like the post-QE party is over......and the rocket is running out of fuel soon.
  • #49,698
  • Nov 4, 2014 12:24am Nov 4, 2014 12:24am
Quoting pohchuan
Looks like the post-QE party is over......and the rocket is running out of fuel soon.
As Above, So Below
  • #49,699
  • Nov 4, 2014 1:23am Nov 4, 2014 1:23am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} true. It's rare. Bullish trend seems to be self-sustaining for now. My reason for cutting my long (placed 5 hrs ago - for 9 measly pips) is that some may view that spike (in GBP/JPY it was ~ 70 pips high) as lack of conviction. Even if it is, this market seems to be able to eat dojis up. The higher this climbs, you're right, the more likely a substantial retracement. The JPY crosses may just take a backseat today to AUD price action.
good one. And yea... that's what I was afraid of. if you miss the bus... wait for the next one. I learnt my lesson from previous UJ cycle... I rushed in at 109 (thinking it will break 110 and got 111 beyond), and what did I get? Big DD as price plummeted to 105.2 before the next up? That's a DD of at least 400+ pips before the resume trend heh. Trying to time and get accurate price entries is actually the real challenge here.
  • #49,700
  • Nov 4, 2014 1:23am Nov 4, 2014 1:23am
at the beginning of this year UJ hit a higher high at 105.xx and then it fell and remained low until this month. Any chance this is the same case and UJ will need to collect steam to run the bull train again?
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