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  • #181
  • Nov 3, 2014 12:07pm Nov 3, 2014 12:07pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting gspajon
1st Target achieved on USD/CAD for 115 pips...nice way to start the week {image}
Well done... Well done. Nice trade GS
  • #182
  • Nov 3, 2014 12:34pm Nov 3, 2014 12:34pm
Thank you eggs...
  • #183
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:25pm Nov 3, 2014 7:25pm
gspajon- with proper mm this is a deadly strategy. Nothing is certain we trade probability. Are u looking at weekly or daily chart?
Thanks
GF
  • #184
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:36pm Nov 3, 2014 7:36pm
Quoting gspajon
UPDATE for this week's positions: XAU/USD: First of two positions triggered and is currently 42 pips positive. Price seems to have stalled over the last two days at the 38.2% fibo level. Next week may see a small pull back that could trigger the second position. Plan for now is hold. No action required. USD/JPY: Position also triggered and is currently 36 pips positive. This trade is progressing well for its first day. Plan is to hold. No action required. I hope you all have a good week end...more on these trades at the end of next week. {image}...
According to your method Should not u be shorting gold resistance as it looks in a down trend.

This is probably the best thread on the net. Instead of paying thousands of pounds to buy dream and become trigger bsers people could become profitable tradr
er for free.
  • #185
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:38pm Nov 3, 2014 7:38pm
Quoting goldfinger
gspajon- with proper mm this is a deadly strategy. Nothing is certain we trade probability. Are u looking at weekly or daily chart? Thanks GF
Yes...I am looking at both weekly and daily charts...but I trade them independently. That is to say, if I see a signal on a daily chart I manage it also on a daily chart, stops limits, etc. Often times a daily chart will trigger in the middle of the week, and by the end of the week a weekly set up is ready to trigger. I Then have TWO trades that I manage independently with different stops and/or position sizes based on the stop for each signal.
  • #186
  • Nov 3, 2014 7:47pm Nov 3, 2014 7:47pm
Quoting goldfinger
{quote} According to your method Should not u be shorting gold resistance as it looks in a down trend. This is probably the best thread on the net. Instead of paying thousands of pounds to buy dream and become trigger bsers people could become profitable tradr er for free.
First Thank you for your kind words...

In answer to the first question I believe you are referring to the first trade I posted...Yes, the short would've been the correct direction and for the last two years it has been for me....however, when I saw a range (seen best on the monthly chart) forming with a weekly bullish engulfing bar signal, I felt the range was the trade, and not the trend.

I try to trade the "edges" of a range, but I must admit my range trading leaves much to be desired. In hind sight, a short off the weekly pin bar in Mid October, would've been the most productive trade...

I am currently now short on gold after the break down of the range. I intend to hold this through the next series of lower highs and lower lows...assuming that's what we get. Hope this answers you question.

BTW - My point in starting this thread was to try and convince most of those in this forum that you really don't need the "signal BS'ers" or the really "sexy" algorithms and all the other nonsense out there...just good solid data that you trust and a probability calculation that is accurate...but that's just math. Beyond that it is patience, discipline, and obedience to your rules. It is a hard to convince most folks of this...that is why I have put everything here so all can see. There is no "magic", there is no "hokus pokus" Just good old fashioned common sense, (which I'm finding is NOT so common).
  • #187
  • Edited 8:45pm Nov 3, 2014 8:19pm | Edited 8:45pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
It's cool we're having a positive response to the thread GS. Thanks for taking the time to start it up. For me price action trading was the end all. It does not work for everyone & over the years there have literally been thousands of posts here at the factory on the subject of Price Action vs/ Indicators. As with so many other aspects of trading there's no 'Right' or 'Wrong' answer to any of it really. It's all about what you can be consistently successful with.

Back to PA.....

Oddly enough the EU has been absent from our recent body of work. I'm not really sure why. There is a very one sided heavy momentum to the downside.

In addition... We're trading at some VERY relevant levels here. Take a look at the Daily below. These Clearly & Obviously are bearish conditions offering bearish continuation trades to the downside. Quantitatively speaking any recent 'green candle trades' have not worked out well... lol....

sorry... Wrong Chart...Here we go:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDDaily2.png Size: 64 KB


Longer Time Frame Analysis or LTFA not to be confused with lmao analysis... lol...or lmao...

Anyways the chart speaks for itself. This zone has been clear support in the past. I'm not calling a bottom here. I only want illustrate how the bottom could literally fall right out of this pair from a technical perspective. Fundamental drivers such as we have now with a revived US Dollar could offer the follow through we need to take this pair below the zone into Hades.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDMonthly.png Size: 70 KB
  • #188
  • Nov 3, 2014 8:35pm Nov 3, 2014 8:35pm
Referring back to the EUAUD discussion, I was quite keen on a short trade until I did my MTF analysis.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Weekly Chart.png Size: 30 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily chart.png Size: 36 KB
  • #189
  • Nov 3, 2014 8:51pm Nov 3, 2014 8:51pm
I hope I am not asking too many questions. Whats your views on PIVOT POINT and DAILY OPEN LINE? What I am trying to say is will you go short or long above or below daily opening line or above or below pivot point.

Thanks
GF

Please guys dont destroy this thread by introducing your own trading ideas. Lets stick to this method and see how successful it is.
  • #190
  • Nov 3, 2014 8:52pm Nov 3, 2014 8:52pm
Quoting ken911
Referring back to the EUAUD discussion, I was quite keen on a short trade until I did my MTF analysis. {image} {image}
Yes Ken, I went over this pair earlier today. I feel this pair is very confusing. I don't see anything that looks "clear" or "obvious". While I do look at multiple time frames, I try to trade them independently. While it is certainly possible to find a signal on a daily chart that eventually turns into a signal on a weekly chart...etc, I've found it more productive to position myself with each time frame as its own entity and trade them as such. thus you see something on a daily chart that looks confusing, perhaps seeing on a weekly chart clears the confusion and makes it clearer to see...then I will trade that chart.

On the above, it seems to me the weekly chart and I believe the monthly chart show a clearer picture. Again I would be watching for a lower high to form then a signal for a short...assuming that happens...if not I think I would stand aside and observe for something more clear.
  • #191
  • Nov 3, 2014 8:59pm Nov 3, 2014 8:59pm
Hey there eggs...yes I am pleased with all the positive responses to this thread. I believe it shows that people are really hungry for something (anything) that makes sense and is easy to understand.

As far as EUR/USD, I have been short on this for the last week or so. Price seems to be stalling here at the lows, but it is only the beginning of the week. The highlight on the monthly chart is a good perspective to have. Sometimes we forget that what seems like an endless trend is really just one leg of a range and this one has been going now for several years. Its easy to loose sight of when we have our noses buried in the daily or intraday charts then scratch our heads over a "sudden" and "unexpected" trend reversal.

We'll have to see how things go over the next few weeks and into Christmas. I couldn't say what will happen, but....IF (and that's a big "if" at this point) price does break down below this range, it would be very bearish in my opinion...just like gold this last week.
  • #192
  • Nov 3, 2014 9:05pm Nov 3, 2014 9:05pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting ken911
Referring back to the EUAUD discussion, I was quite keen on a short trade until I did my MTF analysis. {image} {image}
Of note ken... Again no right or wrong answers here just different analysis & simply a different way of looking at it. As traders we have to stay dynamic. Trades will always be there to be had in both directions. Especially when considering Monthly charts.

The first pic is simply an obvious trendline. Nothing fancy or eye popping but they remain to be one of the most reliable & referenced analysis around. Nice 3 touch'er & bounce.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDWeekly.png Size: 69 KB


2nd chart illustrates how one could make a case for a more recent high. Not so much a higher high but a higher recent swing high could be argued. That's not what were here to do so again I'm only offering analysis.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDWeekly2.png Size: 67 KB


& Last but most certainly not least is the strong rejection & bounce from the 3rd touch on said trend line above via a sweet looking bullish engulfing which I know GS likes. Now... Will previously 'false broken' support turn support again?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDWeekly3.png Size: 69 KB


I don't typically trade this pair but I appreciate you bringing it up ken & I'll continue to watch it myself.
  • #193
  • Nov 3, 2014 9:19pm Nov 3, 2014 9:19pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Hey Ken I just dropped down to the 4HR on the EA & that high we were discussing kinda jumps out a little more at you on this time frame.

Of note it is a fairly strong rejection candle in a downtrend so I wouldn't smack your hand for trading it.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDH4.png Size: 65 KB


Also of note on this Time Frame is the 'scatting' for lack of a better word of price to get back above that support level indicating initially a possible false break & reversal. Might not play out this way. What's important is to read, recognize, & react.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDH42.png Size: 74 KB
  • #194
  • Nov 3, 2014 10:31pm Nov 3, 2014 10:31pm
Hi Eggs.

That is quite a good rejection candle on the 4hr, and although it is not perfect, it may be an indication of what is going on for this pair. I dont allow myself to analyse on the 4hr, but that support level of yours does seem to be quite strong too, so its a stand aside and watch for me.
Good stuff.
  • #195
  • Nov 4, 2014 2:12am Nov 4, 2014 2:12am
Nice and simple thread. Thank you Gspajon for starting this thread.
  • #196
  • Nov 4, 2014 6:58am Nov 4, 2014 6:58am
Quoting corinthia
Nice and simple thread. Thank you Gspajon for starting this thread.
Thank you, Corinthia. Please feel free to participate in any manner you decide is right for you.
  • #197
  • Nov 4, 2014 8:15am Nov 4, 2014 8:15am
Ok...now I've seen everything. I have attached a link to this site on CNBC...I can't believe this was seriously presented as a viable strategy and that it was then televised!! I present to you, "The Vomiting Camel" formation

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000326813

I thought I had seen it all
  • #198
  • Nov 4, 2014 12:01pm Nov 4, 2014 12:01pm
update on USD/CAD:

Price has come to within 70% of the second target. Therefore I have moved the stop up on this remaining portion of the trade to 1xR. This stop should lock in another 115 pips or so.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade2-5.png Size: 19 KB
  • #199
  • Nov 5, 2014 6:51am Nov 5, 2014 6:51am
Update on USD/CAD:

Price came to within 8 pips of my take profit, then pulled away. GEEZ!! waiting...waiting...waiting
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade2-6.png Size: 18 KB
  • #200
  • Nov 5, 2014 7:12am Nov 5, 2014 7:12am
Quoting goldfinger
I hope I am not asking too many questions. Whats your views on PIVOT POINT and DAILY OPEN LINE? What I am trying to say is will you go short or long above or below daily opening line or above or below pivot point. Thanks GF Please guys dont destroy this thread by introducing your own trading ideas. Lets stick to this method and see how successful it is.
Goldfinger...I'm sorry I didn't see this question earlier...sorry things have been a bit hectic here.

I take note of pivot points only in so far as there are enough other traders that also trade them and I anticipate seeing some type of price action around these lines...this is especially true if those lines are confluent with other "logical" support and/or resistance areas.

That being said, I do not blindly place order there...I wait for a signal to form and if it shows a continuation using that pivot point (as well as some other logical level I would expect to see a turn around), I will trade is IN CONFLUENCE with my signal.

Again, if it seems obvious, I will trade it. If it seems confusing I won't. Remember it must be in the context of a trend and a pull back or retrace to a "logical" level. If that level is also a pivot point...OK
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