EURUSD

+1 yeah i tried to tell them with 150 pips down the day is over plus the double-support is f...ng dangerous... this chart is looking like another bear trap...

True. When I do a trade it goes in 90% of the cases into the opposite direction

Fed has noticed' Euro slide, ECB mustn't push too far

???what's this

I don't have a crystal ball but i think we go much lower in comming weeks.

It may shoot up also so take your profits.

im not one to shy away from a message directed at me privately but here i'll share it so i can explain it publicly.

"Hi

Just trying to pick up a few things from you. Was just curious, why do you think U/J would go up to 120 ? and if it did why would it need to correlate to E/U? Because yday when the gdp results were out E/U did better and the rest of the greenback majors, but U/J apparently didn't which is why im confused if the E/U going down should affect U/J.

Cheers
fxtradeabi"

Very often people do not realize the conviction by the BOJ. BOJ has and always had a mandate to correct what has been a 20-30 years of diminishing growth and deflationary pressure. as seen by the move of USDJPY moving from what used to be 147.75 back in 1998 to the lows of 75.60 in 2011, Abe came in and is determined to reverse this.... that means dumping the JPY until he sees inflation... Now what is inflation? inflation is the price of goods and services in a country against the currency... so positive inflation means you buy less with say 100 yen tomorrow than you did today. sooo diminising value of the currency and rising value of goods and services, promotes growth as we are driven to produce more, if a supplier sees a product that is 100 yen is now worth 102 to sell out... to their eyes thats 2 dollars more profit.... but its actually just inflation at play.... but that illusion still drives us to produce...



now with Abe wanting to bring back growth and inflation means he will dump the JPY. but USDJPY is not just about the JPY.... its also about the USD.... on the other shore in the Land of the Federal Bank... you have guys who is ready to TIGHTEN monetary policy... its means reducing the supply of Dollars... and when you reduce the supply of anything... removing demand out of the equation... Price of the goods would rise.... in this case... reducing supply of dollar raises the value of dollars....
Hence u have diverging monetary policies thats driving the USD to appreciate against a depreciating JPY... hence the high speed rise in USDJPY....


Now you ask WHY would a rising USDJPY have a negative correlation with the EURUSD (i.e. EURUSD up and USDJPY down)... well look at the common currency between these 2.... direct impact lies on that they are both trading with USD paired....
so if USD strengthens where JPY and EURO stays unchanged.... EURUSD goes down on rising dollar value.. and USDJPY rises on rising dollar value....

but another thing to see.... is how much of the JPY easing is going to the EURO and how much is it going to the USD....
well simple look at the daily return of the currency paired agains the JPY...

you can see from here that today... the YEN depreciated against both the EURO and the USD... but look at how much % yen depreciated against those 2.... JPY depreciated against the USD MORE than it depreciated against the EURO.... hence USD is more favoured by YEN than the EURO... but NZD is the biggest winner of JPY flow today.

yep
bears setting up a trap for the bulls, when the bulls get their legs caught we'll just shoot them in the brains to end their misery.

We are in down trend, that double bottom don't mean shit - and weekly support is at 1.24. This thing has further to go down unless monthly buyers suddenly show their faces. but until then keep selling. React don't predict.

Same thing....
Once i bought gold and in few second was in profit 50euros...

That feeling when you Bought at 1.2494 reversed at 1.2510 then reversed @ 1.2504 then reversed at 1.2524 then reversed @ 1.2511... On fire right now

First sign of dollar reversal (hum hum) shorted GJ at 179.32.

out of here - good w/e all

Question for the EURUSD bull hopefulls... "can we get back into the downward channel?"
Question the EURUSD Bears are gona ask the the EURUSD Bulls "why are you trying to long against something thats clearly moving down?"

Maybe we just trade every day and cant resist to enter both ways....

day not even over yet.... ill be interested to see what new york will do when they are left alone....
too many times ive seen the New York having the bigger action when london closes...

hey thanks a bunch for clarifying this with that huge reply. I thought you didn't see the message or something because it's just a small icon you know on top, thats why and given its a weekend I figured you'd have missed it. But yeah that makes a lot of sense with what you said and learnt a couple things I didn't know about. Just one last doubt though but this time about E/U since you actually were spot on about where it was gonna drop. How did you know it was going to be at 12480 and then it was gonna bounce back? That 12480 absolutely didn't even cross my mind, hell I didn't even know it was important.

well maybe im oldschool but i never trade anything with a risk reward ratio lower than 1.... counter trend trades at best can only give you 1:1

the EUR is completely destroyed now. price broke under 1.2500 this is the lowest price got for years

ahh the 1.2480 thing comes with trading experience.... intuition tells me at Round numbers like 1.25 1.26 etc... there will always be orders placed if in a downtrend.... retail traders who are dumb enough to try their luck longing thinking its bottom will place Buy Limit orders at 1.25 thinking it wont go lower than 1.25 so when they get filled they usually use tight stop loss like 10-20 pips so pushing it to 1.2480 makes them lose 20 pips instantly... fast money for banks and brokers to pocket.....
then you also got the Sell Stop orders... these guys are likely going to place their sell stop order meaning if it drops to a point they expect it to continue down....
so imagine if ur one of the flock of retail traders... who are very often wrong... they would think "shit... it dropped to 1.2480 im gona short and expect it to go down to 1.24, and ill put my SL at 1.25..." these guys also get stopped out too....

soooo if in down trend. Orders are expected below round numbers and if up trend orders are expected above the round numbers.

Doesnt seem able to get back inside the low of the bearish channel.... sellers seen keeping the pressure on EURUSD downwards.
and USDJPY back above 112.25....