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Sonic R. System

  • #77,201
  • Oct 31, 2014 3:07am Oct 31, 2014 3:07am
It was a good night for ppl who do News Trading.

It was just to late for ppl in Europe to trade
  • #77,202
  • Oct 31, 2014 3:12am Oct 31, 2014 3:12am
USDCAD Long Trade Open:

M15 Classic. Looks like a Stop Hunt on longs just occurred, quickly taking price below PVT and back up again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #77,203
  • Oct 31, 2014 3:23am Oct 31, 2014 3:23am
AUDUSD Long Trade Open:

M15 Classic. I entered slightly early, not waiting for the price to rise above the Dragon, because there is so much volume during the basing activity. The Dragon and Trend are both angling up now, however.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #77,204
  • Oct 31, 2014 4:57am Oct 31, 2014 4:57am
Hi TAH,

i think both trades are "wrong", this is just an up&down. There is no wave in the movement, probably should have waited till making new High. Here the failing probability is quite high, even higher than success.
  • #77,205
  • Oct 31, 2014 6:08am Oct 31, 2014 6:08am
GBPUSD Long Trade Open:

M15 Classic. Volume increased to lows where it peaked.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oct 2014 - 214.png Size: 65 KB
  • #77,206
  • Oct 31, 2014 6:29am Oct 31, 2014 6:29am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} AUDJPY Short Trade Clsosed: Closed for loss of 160.2 pips average, 5,768.6 pips total. Just wiped out most of the pips for these past three weeks! But, I am still up 899.2 pips gain for this period, or about 300 pips per week. {image}
Tah

I am sorry for your loss on this trade of AUDJPY. It is difficult to stomach, but I cannot understand why you just kept on adding positions to a losing trade. Presumably there was no stop loss on your part.

This reminds me of some of the trades that Loeil did (adding to losing positions) and eventually got burnt.

You are strong and I am sure you will dust yourself off and live to fight another day!
  • #77,207
  • Oct 31, 2014 7:17am Oct 31, 2014 7:17am
Quoting Forex-Forex
{quote} Tah I am sorry for your loss on this trade of AUDJPY. It is difficult to stomach, but I cannot understand why you just kept on adding positions to a losing trade. Presumably there was no stop loss on your part. This reminds me of some of the trades that Loeil did (adding to losing positions) and eventually got burnt. You are strong and I am sure you will dust yourself off and live to fight another day!
Forex-Forex,

Thank you for your kind words.

Yes, this is the sort of thing that happened to loeil, a short while back, as well as what happened to me and some others in 2013. Trade building in the red does not always come out okay. And when it does not, one of them can counter a bunch of profitable trades. The funny thing is that in these three weeks my most profitable trades, the ones that most helped counter this loss, were trades just like it but that turned around and came to excellent profit. It is a mixed bag, to be sure!

Regardless, this is a good time of the year for me to write down for myself some new "ground rules" and follow them to see if I can replace some bad habits with some newly developed good ones before next year.

-tah
  • #77,208
  • Oct 31, 2014 7:46am Oct 31, 2014 7:46am
Market Comment

Right now the MMs are whipping and whacking prices. This started suddenly and is being done on a variety of pairs. As if the mountainous climb in the JPYs is not enough for them, what are the up to? This is Friday, for crying-out-loud! Do they expect to load up humongously with all this "liquidity creation" and then ram prices thru the rest of the day? Or, are they just trying to clean everybody's clock, and start the profit moves for themselves next week?

I find it really strange that prices are being so manipulated on a Friday.
  • #77,209
  • Oct 31, 2014 9:42am Oct 31, 2014 9:42am
Quoting traderathome
AUDUSD Long Trade Open: M15 Classic. I entered slightly early, not waiting for the price to rise above the Dragon, because there is so much volume during the basing activity. The Dragon and Trend are both angling up now, however. {image}
AUDUSD Long Trade Closed:

Closed for loss of 32.8 pips average/total. I lowered my SL, and it was hit.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oct 2014 - 215.png Size: 64 KB
  • #77,210
  • Oct 31, 2014 9:57am Oct 31, 2014 9:57am
Quoting traderathome
USDCAD Long Trade Open: M15 Classic. Looks like a Stop Hunt on longs just occurred, quickly taking price below PVT and back up again. {image}
USDCAD Long Trade Closed:

Closed for loss of 20 pips average/total. Had the direction right. Setting a SL kept me from profiting.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #77,211
  • Oct 31, 2014 10:23am Oct 31, 2014 10:23am
Quoting traderathome
{quote} USDCAD Long Trade Closed: Closed for loss of 20 pips average/total. Had the direction right. Setting a SL kept me from profiting. {image}
Personally, i think it saves you. In this trade it might keep you from profiting but just imagine you are on the other side, and do it without SL.

It will wipe out your account for short or longterm, same like AJ.

I think those trades ( on a friday and no much actions seem to come ) are scalping so personally i would always set SL and leave it by that. what I would also do is, in case you are in profit ( like 15 pips ) i personally would move the SL to BE ( before news coming ) owing to the reason of scalping.

Any Feedback are welcome.
  • #77,212
  • Edited 11:26am Oct 31, 2014 10:56am | Edited 11:26am
Quoting forexTN14
{quote} Personally, i think it saves you. In this trade it might keep you from profiting but just imagine you are on the other side, and do it without SL. It will wipe out your account for short or longterm, same like AJ. I think those trades ( on a friday and no much actions seem to come ) are scalping so personally i would always set SL and leave it by that. what I would also do is, in case you are in profit ( like 15 pips ) i personally would move the SL to BE ( before news coming ) owing to the reason of scalping. Any Feedback are welcome.
forexTN14,

I don't have the answer, because the root of the problem is the MMs respond to what everyone does. It is not that they have their plan, and everyone else has theirs. It is that the MMs see what everyone else is doing and then take whatever action profits them the most. And that action can turn price on a dime! There is no "out thinking" the MMs, because they don't know what they are going to do in advance. What they do is wait as see what everyone else is/has done, and then their response is whatever steals the most money from the market.

Therefore, we can be on the right side of the trade, and never get to participate in it due to being stopped out. The cry has been "Don't trade until they hit the stops!" Well, what makes us think they are going to "hit the stops" only once, or only twice!

I don't have the answer, and I guess that is why - even with the best intentions - I find myself adding to trades in the red. Well, I am dedicated to changing this bad habit into something else. I am racking my brain for a substitute "habit" to replace it. Hopefully, something worth trying will be revealed. It cannot just be to use tight SLs because the number of trades that would be stopped out would make profiting overall impossible.

So, I appreciate whatever continuation of this discussion there is, by you and whomever else wishes to contribute.
  • #77,213
  • Oct 31, 2014 11:08am Oct 31, 2014 11:08am
Bro TAH,

dont take this as critic, never intended to mean sth like that. You are more than great, without you I think this thread would be nothing.

I just mention my idea to let us ( traders, sonicers ) discuss together because as you mean, we are nothing as sand corn but what we can do is to support each other to fight them.

Any Feedback from other traders are welcome
  • #77,214
  • Edited 3:23pm Oct 31, 2014 11:10am | Edited 3:23pm
GBPUSD Comment

You can see from the PA and volume patterns that yesterday and today look like they have been days where the MMs focused on accumulation. Prices increased on whackings and were strong coming back up from them. Therefore, I shall jot down that next week should present us with one, or more, Classic long opportunities.

In the case of this trade, I will see a bit longer into the day what the MMs do with the price. They probably will not attempt hiking it, as that would be counterproductive to the cost of accumulating. But, if they do, I will close the trade and look for new entry next week. Either way, the target will need to be raised for the hunt next week.
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  • #77,215
  • Oct 31, 2014 12:10pm Oct 31, 2014 12:10pm
Hi TAH & Team
I will often enter many seeds when building a position... Only add to red trades at certain spacings eg 40 pips... when PVSRA/and the trade itself shows that you are on the correct side of the trade add at lesser spacings eg.20 pips.

This MAY help in slowing down mounting losses while add to increasing winning but again the trade can flip on you so it wont work ALL the time but this definitely can be an EDGE...

Alternately you can also add in the red with HALF seeds and add in the green with WHOLE seeds..

Just some thoughts




Quoting traderathome
{quote} forexTN14, I don't have the answer, because the root of the problem is the MMs respond to what everyone does. It is not that they have their plan, and everyone else has theirs. It is that the MMs see what everyone else is doing and then take whatever action profits them the most. And that action can turn price on a dime! There is no "out thinking" the MMs, because they don't know what they are going to do in advance. What they do is wait as see what everyone else is/has done, and then their response is whatever steals the most money from...
Entries in the wicks over and over **PVSRA rules!
  • #77,216
  • Oct 31, 2014 3:22pm Oct 31, 2014 3:22pm
Quoting traderathome
GBPUSD Long Trade Open: M15 Classic. Volume increased to lows where it peaked. {image}
GBPUSD Long Trade Closed:

Closed for gain of 1.7 pips average, 8.5 pips total.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oct 2014 - 218.png Size: 65 KB
  • #77,217
  • Oct 31, 2014 3:31pm Oct 31, 2014 3:31pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GBPUSD Long Trade Closed: Closed for gain of 1.7 pips average, 8.5 pips total. {image}
just missed the boat, 8 pips for that much draw down, pretty bad too...
  • #77,218
  • Oct 31, 2014 3:36pm Oct 31, 2014 3:36pm
Quoting traderathome
{quote} GBPUSD Long Trade Closed: Closed for gain of 1.7 pips average, 8.5 pips total. {image}
I assume you have moved the SL, as on your screen it was where price passed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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There is no spoon....
  • #77,219
  • Nov 1, 2014 10:13pm Nov 1, 2014 10:13pm
Quoting Msis125125
{quote} I assume you have moved the SL, as on your screen it was where price passed. {image}
That is correct.
  • #77,220
  • Edited Nov 2, 2014 9:54pm Nov 1, 2014 10:59pm | Edited Nov 2, 2014 9:54pm
Quoting society
{quote} just missed the boat, 8 pips for that much draw down, pretty bad too...
So, you joined FF only about two months ago, in September. Seems you just got off the boat! And all too ready with your opinions on the trading of others,when you haven't posted a single trade yourself since you arrived!

And, you don't seem to have enough intelligence to even be aware that this makes you appear as a highly opinionated under achiever! You might try thinking before speaking,....you know, engage your brain before putting your mouth into gear.

-tah
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