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  • #932,481
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:27am Oct 30, 2014 12:27am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Yeah, all I see is a retracement back up to 1.2700 in this kind of market. I think going short here for a few pips here and there is bad risk/reward - I could be completely wrong.
It should retrace to 1.2700, but may be in a few days. The way it is going down at the moment, seems unstoppable. Once it hits something hard, I plan to go long. There is no fundamental justification for it to go 1.2000, may be somebody is trying to create that justification, but at least not yet.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #932,482
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:29am Oct 30, 2014 12:29am
Quoting KGP
{quote} at the moment its all about the next set of results (german unemployment data/PMIs) and the US later on...
yes. With Yellen, I doubt she will say anything to further spur usd strength. I'm fairly certain they're not entirely happy with it's strength.
  • #932,483
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:31am Oct 30, 2014 12:31am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} It should retrace to 1.2700, but may be in a few days. The way it is going down at the moment, seems unstoppable. Once it hits something hard, I plan to go long. There is no fundamental justification for it to go 1.2000, may be somebody is trying to create that justification, but at least not yet.
Agree. Despite economic disparities, I don't sense sufficient conviction towards further downward moves.
  • #932,484
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:32am Oct 30, 2014 12:32am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} yes. With Yellen, I doubt she will say anything to further spur usd strength. I'm fairly certain they're not entirely happy with it's strength.
i doubt she will say anything at all....keeping what she did since her last conference (didnt even spell anything in public if anyone noticed)
  • #932,485
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:40am Oct 30, 2014 12:40am
As I told before. It's not easy to turn back from this kind of level.
Technically daily TF was the culprit that push down this pair and now it's renewing its power. Any spike up will pull down by next day.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #932,486
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:44am Oct 30, 2014 12:44am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Agree. Despite economic disparities, I don't sense sufficient conviction towards further downward moves.
Quick distortions is currency parities do not last long. But the main issue is it is difficult to estimate the pip level of these imbalances. It started from just below 1.4000 and has not yet shown even a single descent retrace. How long this will last? I don't know, but what I know is that people are still selling. The right time to buy is not when everybody is selling but when everybody has sold.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #932,487
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:46am Oct 30, 2014 12:46am
Quoting forexings
As I told before. It's not easy to turn back from this kind of level. Technically daily TF was the culprit that push down this pair and now it's renewing its power. Any spike up will pull down by next day.
Yes, probably have spikes sold off. Right now all I see is a whole lot of scalping going on down here - a bit like a house of cards.
  • #932,488
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:48am Oct 30, 2014 12:48am
1.2590 Bought SL 1.2568.Putting my fortune on that.Only market can prove me wrong
  • #932,489
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:54am Oct 30, 2014 12:54am
Quoting forexings
As I told before. It's not easy to turn back from this kind of level. Technically daily TF was the culprit that push down this pair and now it's renewing its power. Any spike up will pull down by next day.
Yes I dont understand why not just look for short? So much easier! and higher prob as of the time being
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #932,490
  • Oct 30, 2014 1:07am Oct 30, 2014 1:07am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Yes I dont understand why not just look for short? So much easier! and higher prob as of the time being
Because few crazy traders want to retire in 2017. These are two out of few possible scenarios. Number of scenarios keep on increasing and getting fragile as one moves to smaller time-frames.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #932,491
  • Oct 30, 2014 1:18am Oct 30, 2014 1:18am
looks like second scenario more valid.. thats freaking for buyer..
the true currencies here is patience and react precisely
  • #932,492
  • Oct 30, 2014 1:27am Oct 30, 2014 1:27am
we back to bearish move.. just like that.. just single word from yellen we back to bearish market what a freaky lady.. draghi will be happy for that, dont forget draghi try to weakening EURO.. its hard for buyer but thats the fact..

scalping short mode on..
the true currencies here is patience and react precisely
  • #932,493
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:06am Oct 30, 2014 2:06am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Because few crazy traders want to retire in 2017. These are two out of few possible scenarios. Number of scenarios keep on increasing and getting fragile as one moves to smaller time-frames. {image}
agree
don't find the correct answer in market. just feel it and follow the wave.
  • #932,494
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:09am Oct 30, 2014 2:09am
Quoting mied
we back to bearish move.. just like that.. just single word from yellen we back to bearish market what a freaky lady.. draghi will be happy for that, dont forget draghi try to weakening EURO.. its hard for buyer but thats the fact.. scalping short mode on..
Are you sure draghi wants to devalue euro more? As far I know he is working on price stabilization.
Draghi warned not to short euro when price was around 1.23xx, then a freaking typhoon from 1.21xx what Bernanke failed to defend back to back speech.
You cannot learn better without losing
  • #932,495
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:37am Oct 30, 2014 2:37am
The size and direction of the move demonstrates that although expected the FOMC decision yesterday was not fully priced in
The time of the move (outside European markets) leaves open the possibility of a further step down today

this is the easy method.... the trend down remains in tact so sell rallies for short entries

this is harder method.... try going long and enjoy the short rallies with limited profits whilst constantly exposing yourself to that next step down.....
  • #932,496
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:37am Oct 30, 2014 2:37am
It's moving torwards 1.10... excellent.

This time, 1.25 will not hold. We could see further huge down movements as we have seen in the middle of this year.
Forex is a losers game.
  • #932,497
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:41am Oct 30, 2014 2:41am
the euro keep falling as break the key support at 1,2750. Now at 1,2599 it's in near the key support @ 1,2626. Fed yesterday confirmed the end of QE, which means less dollars in the market so it's very bullish for the USD and very bearish for EUR, plus ECB easing for a long time. So, fundamentals are very bearish and the the average forecast from analyst's for 3Q15 is 1,2250 and for 4Q14 is 1,2590. The euro has a weekly pivot point @ 1,2704 and now the price is looking for the support 1 (S1) @ 1,2576 and support 2 @ 1,2477. Above 1,2704 should look for 1,2797 (R1) and 1,2933 (R2). Analyst consensus says that the euro is a sell on any rebound until we have a confirmed change trend signal. Also we have a "head-shoulder" pattern with a neckline @ 1,2626, if broke that level will look for the target @ 1,2368 but before should face the key support at 1,2500, which is a rebound level.
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Bavarian Trading FX
  • #932,498
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:43am Oct 30, 2014 2:43am
The pair traded sideways for much of yesterday session, as markets tentatively waited the release of the Fed rate decision after the close.
However, heading into the close of European session the markets positioned for a dovish Fed statement, with the USD weakening and the pair moving to fresh highs at 1.2770, but a hawkish statement coming out of the Fed sent this pair lower. The market should continue to go lower down to the 1.25 handle.
Want to learn more: HTO Trading
  • #932,499
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:46am Oct 30, 2014 2:46am
Quoting Deutschland
the euro keep falling as break the key support at 1,2750. Now at 1,2599 it's in near the key support @ 1,2626. Fed yesterday confirmed the end of QE, which means less dollars in the market so it's very bullish for the USD and very bearish for EUR, plus ECB easing for a long time. So, fundamentals are very bearish and the the average forecast from analyst's for 3Q15 is 1,2250 and for 4Q14 is 1,2590. The euro has a weekly pivot point @ 1,2704 and now the price is looking for the support 1 (S1) @ 1,2576 and support 2 @ 1,2477. Above 1,2704 should look...

a very good and in depth analysis indeed... the issue is right now as someone over here in the past have said (i think it was pedro ... although not 100% sure) the fundamentals need to support the TA otherwise this "up and down" trend will take place until the fundamentals "stabilise" to a certain direction ...

lets not forget that the fundamentals lately as far as Germany and US are concerned are full of suprises lately pointing each time to another direction...even though the trend is bearish
  • #932,500
  • Oct 30, 2014 2:48am Oct 30, 2014 2:48am
Quoting MaxDoom
The size and direction of the move demonstrates that although expected the FOMC decision yesterday was not fully priced in The time of the move (outside European markets) leaves open the possibility of a further step down today this is the easy method.... the trend down remains in tact so sell rallies for short entries this is harder method.... try going long and enjoy the short rallies with limited profits whilst constantly exposing yourself to that next step down.....
i see u slept through the noise like me. getting a camera up the butt today and what a lovely day it is atm. tomorrow is the one i want closed. no doji i hope. i want decisive.. -2539 good (below mofu), -2473 better is asking for a lot.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
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