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Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading

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  • #121
  • Oct 29, 2014 1:08pm Oct 29, 2014 1:08pm
Gold has triggered the second position everything on this assessment (weekly chart) is now in play.
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  • #122
  • Oct 29, 2014 2:46pm Oct 29, 2014 2:46pm
update EUR/USD

Looks like we are making a lower high today. So I have move my stop down to just above the lower high. Currently the position is positive after a small drawdown.
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  • #123
  • Oct 29, 2014 7:22pm Oct 29, 2014 7:22pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Hello traders of the simple uncomplicated (obvious) trading thread. Major volatility outbreak after the FED confirmed terminal ends of QE. I hope everyone was on the right side of the trade... lol.

It seems as though Asia is trading the news in the same manner. It will remain to be seen whether this news will bring true follow through on direction.

I posted the Old Support > New Resistance setup on the UCAD yesterday before the news. Sometimes technical levels will coincide with fundamental sentiment & provide great follow through trade opportunities. I'm not so sure I feel comfortable placing this trade even though the setup may play out around the 1.12 level. US Dollar demand could nullify this one for me.

That said... This is exactly the type of 4HR candles I expected to see around this level. It paints itself as a 'false break'. The 1.12 level was clearly broken but the 4HR candles are not 'Closing' above the level. If I were to be taking this trade in the face of today's Fundi's I would be waiting for several more 4HR candles to close providing an entry opportunity where I could hide an affordable stop such as 25 or 30 pips.
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  • #124
  • Oct 29, 2014 7:35pm Oct 29, 2014 7:35pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
As an alternative to the UCAD setup above I might be looking to find a nice carry trade setup.

'Generally' speaking Dollar demand like we saw today after the announcement will correspond to risk aversion. Riskier assets classes tend to sell off as the dollar gains value. & 'Generally' speaking The 'Carry Trade' will follow a Risk On appetite. Short story long... Carry Trade pairs such as the YEN crosses should also be selling off. But I'll leave the Centeral Bank analysis to the big boys & Just try to trade what I see.

It strikes me that EJ & AJ are very much standing their ground. The best looking one of the two to me is the AJ. We'll see if the next few 4HR candle closes provide an entry opportunity on a continuation trade to the upside. It could be the one follow through opportunity we have right now as other majors like EU & GU are already trading at historic lows.

We'll see... Nice trades btw gspajon. They all look really good.
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  • #125
  • Oct 29, 2014 8:48pm Oct 29, 2014 8:48pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
It's kinda quite here. But I guess I'll continue to throw up charts until someone says otherwise lol. Double bottoms are simple & uncomplicated. They are also one of the more respected chart patterns. If played correctly they can provide excellent trade opportunities with high value targets. A pair like the EU could trade 500 points off a double bottom with no problem.

The 1st chart is EU zoomed out illustrating the 1st bottom.

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The 2nd chart is EU zoomed in illustrating a possible 2nd bottom at the 1.25 level.

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  • #126
  • Oct 29, 2014 10:29pm Oct 29, 2014 10:29pm
Quoting eggs
It's kinda quite here. But I guess I'll continue to throw up charts until someone says otherwise lol. Double bottoms are simple & uncomplicated. They are also one of the more respected chart patterns. If played correctly they can provide excellent trade opportunities with high value targets. A pair like the EU could trade 500 points off a double bottom with no problem. The 1st chart is EU zoomed out illustrating the 1st bottom. {image} The 2nd chart is EU zoomed in illustrating a possible 2nd bottom at the 1.25 level. {image}
Eggs. I think you provide a good insight to pairs in the market. I'm sure it is appreciated that both you and the Thread starter take the time to post your charts and thoughts.
  • #127
  • Oct 29, 2014 11:00pm Oct 29, 2014 11:00pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting ken911
{quote} Eggs. I think you provide a good insight to pairs in the market. I'm sure it is appreciated that both you and the Thread starter take the time to post your charts and thoughts.
Thank you sir. I find it beneficial to my own trading & decision making. The principles gspajon has outlined for the direction of his thread aligns well with my own fundamental beliefs as to what it takes to make not only profitable trades but a profitable & successful trader.

I always notice several lurkers here & I think it would bode well for the thread if more would participate.
  • #128
  • Oct 29, 2014 11:09pm Oct 29, 2014 11:09pm
Quoting eggs
{quote} Thank you sir. I find it beneficial to my own trading & decision making. The principles gspajon has outlined for the direction of his thread aligns well with my own fundamental beliefs as to what it takes to make not only profitable trades but a profitable & successful trader. I always notice several lurkers here & I think it would bode well for the thread if more would participate.
Yes, I am one of the lurkers, but not because I trade this system (although it does have similarities to the way I trade live) but more because I think there is always something new to learn from watching threads like this. If I feel that I have any input useful to the thread, I will do so.
  • #129
  • Oct 30, 2014 3:57am Oct 30, 2014 3:57am
gspajon. At last a thread that corresponds more to my own thinking and deals in a logical uncluttered manner with the business of finding suitable candidates. Thank you for sticking it out there.

eggs. great to see your contribution too. dovetails neatly into what GS is doing.

As to involvment, I have been sat on my hands this last 4 weeks or so in the extra volatility that has arisen lately due to uncertainty on the changing economic landscape. My lengthy trend trades are all gone out of the system and I've taken a breather while the traders that make up the market make their collective minds up.....
  • #130
  • Oct 30, 2014 7:43am Oct 30, 2014 7:43am
Eggs, as always your insights into the market are valuable. Sorry for the quiet nature of the thread yesterday...I was busy with the market and had some personal things to attend...

Ken911, you are welcome to participate in any form you wish...lurk, put up charts, ask questions however you feel most comfortable. As with everything here we are only expressing personal view points and hope that by sharing together we increase our ability to trade successfully.

nbfx, thanks for your kind words I hope you will give us the benefit of your expertise when you feel you can.

Now as to tops and bottoms...I (personally) am really crappy at trading them. When a market is trending, every time it retraces then rejoins the trend it ALWAYS looks like a double top/bottom (to me), until it pushes through. I have never developed the finesse to trade them and have pounded the hell out of my equity by doing it.

So, IF the double bottom IS REALLY a reversal, it will push through the apex between the two legs that formed the bottom...this will create a higher high. I usually look for that higher high to come in somewhere close to a distance equal to the distance between the apex and the bottom.

If it does NOT...I will treat it as a range...

If it DOES, there will undoubtedly be a retrace to somewhere around the the break out point...this will most often create the higher low I am looking for and we are off to the races...

I don't try and trade tend reversal anymore...If I do find a range however, I will trade the edges of a range...like the Gold long I am in now and what I used to start this thread.
  • #131
  • Edited 8:25am Oct 30, 2014 8:03am | Edited 8:25am
Quoting gspajon
Now as to tops and bottoms...I (personally) am really crappy at trading them. When a market is trending, every time it retraces then rejoins the trend it ALWAYS looks like a double top/bottom (to me), until it pushes through. I have never developed the finesse to trade them and have pounded the hell out of my equity by doing it.
Sounds uncomfortably familiar. I never have been able to call the start/finish of a trend. Maybe because they are so messy and (to me at least) only clear in hindsight. There are some instruments however that have the characteristic of frequently revisiting the previous bar's range (or most of it) which provides for a more controlled opportunity. NZD/CAD for example which even when trading retraces much of the previous day with uncanny regularity allowing limits to be used with clearly defined risk.

(Sorry can't put a chart up right now. Just reloaded my operating system and all the software isn't yet re-installed.)

Correction - should read Trending.
  • #132
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:01am Oct 30, 2014 9:01am
Quoting nbfx
...Just reloaded my operating system and all the software isn't yet re-installed.) Correction - should read Trending.
Oh how I HATE that...I hope you had a back up...I leaned to keep all my important files and programs on a removable disk so I could take them to any computer and use them in case of emergency.

But I had to learn that after numerous crashes and reconstructions...even the backups don't work if there is a corrupted file in there somewhere.
  • #133
  • Oct 30, 2014 9:36am Oct 30, 2014 9:36am
I keep important files and documents on an expansion drive and various USB sticks (duplicated of course). I too learned the hard way...
  • #134
  • Oct 30, 2014 10:25am Oct 30, 2014 10:25am
update on XAU/USD:

This trad is not looking good. Price is now down below the 1200 threshold and looking like its going to stop. Only a miracle tomorrow will save this trade (I think).

I will hold it until it stops, but its not looking good. This is what happens when I try to trade reversals...I may set a stop and reverse at this level...but that often doesn't work either.
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  • #135
  • Oct 30, 2014 10:56am Oct 30, 2014 10:56am
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Good afternoon simple uncomplicated traders. Hope everyone is well. I wanted to follow through & Post a few charts. My AJ triggered in today's London Session. I have been talking about the strong bullish momentum on the pair for the past couple of days. Yesterdays news caused the run to unwind a bit offering a nice continuation setup.

The 4HR chart shows an inside bar. On this chart They're in red. Buy Stop above the break of the mother bar to prevent slop & away she went. I have a 48 point stop below the mother bar & have targets of around 110 points. We'll see...
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  • #136
  • Oct 30, 2014 11:08am Oct 30, 2014 11:08am
Quoting eggs
Good afternoon simple uncomplicated traders. Hope everyone is well. I wanted to follow through & Post a few charts. My AJ triggered in today's London Session. I have been talking about the strong bullish momentum on the pair for the past couple of days. Yesterdays news caused the run to unwind a bit offering a nice continuation setup. The 4HR chart shows an inside bar. On this chart They're in red. Buy Stop above the break of the mother bar to prevent slop & away she went. I have a 48 point stop below the mother bar & have targets of around 110...
BRAVO!!

excellent trade and exactly the type of trade I've been harping about on this thread. WELL DONE!
  • #137
  • Oct 30, 2014 11:18am Oct 30, 2014 11:18am
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting gspajon
Now as to tops and bottoms....
I understand completely sir. At the end of the day you have to follow your intuition & continue to do what works for you. It looks like I'm going to miss my target on this EU Trade. I shorted yesterday & had targets all the way down at 1.2515.

1.2570 proved to be a strong supply zone. It will hurt seeing my trade work against me & getting stopped out for chump change but at the end of the day I have to stay dynamic. This could be the double bottom. It might not be pretty but it does not have to be. Just trade what you see.
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  • #138
  • Oct 30, 2014 11:54am Oct 30, 2014 11:54am
Quoting eggs
{quote} I understand completely sir. At the end of the day you have to follow your intuition & continue to do what works for you. It looks like I'm going to miss my target on this EU Trade. I shorted yesterday & had targets all the way down at 1.2515. 1.2570 proved to be a strong supply zone. It will hurt seeing my trade work against me & getting stopped out for chump change but at the end of the day I have to stay dynamic. This could be the double bottom. It might not be pretty but it does not have to be. Just trade what you see.
I am still short this market. My stop was moved down to above the last swing high seen on your 4 hr chart. For me, this is still a bearish market until that swing high is taken...and...well I digress

From your chart here this is looking more and more like a range which is becoming clear on the daily chart as well. That is going to eliminate it from my play book for awhile until this all resolves...of note...all the USD pairs are looking this way, so it is probably a response to the FED announcement yesterday.
  • #139
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:04pm Oct 30, 2014 12:04pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
In case anyone is still following the UCAD like I am I wanted to post a follow up chart. Due to a tiny hiccup in my trading plan called sleep I missed what I would call my signal candle. You can see it below in the chart. It's the smaller bodied evening star looking candle. If I would have been awake to see the signal candle I would have most likely entered at market with stops above the wick high.

As expected price has been attracted back to the 1.12 level & has had difficulty closing above the level. I'll continue to watch this one closely & will be sure to post my entry when & IF I decide to get in on this one.
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  • #140
  • Oct 30, 2014 12:07pm Oct 30, 2014 12:07pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
AJ Trade update... This one is moving pretty quick. Since we've taken out the most relevant recent high I've decided to move SL to BE.
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