The Dollar Cost Averaging Pivot Point Trading Method

On The Live Side:

I guess I was smart to set SL's for both the EUR/NZD and GBP/NZD shorts:



... with the EUR/NZD then opening more favorable positions above the stop out ... . Additionally, an AUD/NZD short position opened as well, and my USD/RUB lost substantial ground due to dollar strength (price is now above 43.00).


Current Open Positions

AUD/NZD Short at 1.12507/TP 1.10000
EUR/CAD Short at 1.42200/TP 1.40532/SL fixed at 1.42190 (No risk proposition)
EUR/NZD Short at 1.62062/TP 1.59200/SL fixed at 1.61962 (No risk proposition)
EUR/USD Short at 1.27003/TP 1.25200/SL fixed at 1.26900 (No disk proposition)
GBP/CAD Short at 1.81108/TP 1.79000/SL fixed at 1.81008 (No risk proposition)
USD/RUB Short at 40.361/TP 39.00

Penders

The penders I've currently got set up will probably require some tweaking in light of today's action ... . I'll go through, tweak them, and post them here in a few ... .


Usable Margin: 87.35%/Usable Maintenance Margin: 74.70%

Live Penders

Here are the penders for the live (based on the 4H ZigZag indicator):





I would note that the 3-Level ZigZag Semaphore indicator available in MT4 is a bit nicer to use, since it indicates where the most extreme Zig or Zag is (which makes the decision-making process as to which Zig or Zag to use kind of a no brainer). Here's is an example of the EUR/CAD 4H chart, with the 3-Level ZigZag Semaphore indicator:

So, assuming that EUR/CAD is in a down trend, you would look to sell at the high 3's with the TP's being the low 3's ... .

I see your point. That is a typical situation in all broker in USA. They also have the FIFO rule that mean first in first out, so if you buy EURUSD you can open another long position but, if you want to close just the second position, you are no allow to do that, the first one has to be closed first, FIFO. That is suck, isn't it?
Thanks for answer my question.

I've gotten used to FIFO, but think it's a pain in the ass at times unless you're a trader that just takes a single position, one-time entry, and that's not how I trade. I frequently take multiple positions at various price points and so have to look at whether the net position (all of the entries together) is net profitable ... . That's okay, but it just takes some getting used to.

I agree,
But if you life in USA, you have to trade that way, suck. So never come to USA for trading.

Maybe when I retire, I'll move out of the U.S. so that I can hedge and won't be subject to FIFO ... . Got a few years left before I do that, though.

Daaaang .... . My EUR/NZD short (two legs) stopped out at +10.1 pips again (for the net position) ... :



Oh, well, better entries await above current price ... .

Also, I judged that my GBP/CAD short was close enough to its TP (15 pips) to just go ahead and take profit now (196.4 pips):

Moving AUD/NZD short TP up to 1.11375.

Price is currently at or near double top resistance (purple box):



... and it's certainly possible that it will push past that. 2014 high is basically 1.13000 and price wicked up to that level during the New York sesh.

Before I go watch Game 7 of the World Series, thought I'd post the demo goals for next month.

Current equity: $54,533
Goal (Percent): 6.0%
Goal (Dollars): $57,805
Next Compounding Increase (In Lots): To .14 lots
Next Compounding Increase (Dollar Level): At $56,000

Go, Royals!

Took a small piece off that EUR/USD short (the first leg due to FIFO):

On the Live Side:

Current Open Positions

AUD/NZD Short at 1.12507/TP 1.10000
EUR/CAD Short at 1.42200/TP 1.40532/SL fixed at 1.42190 (No risk proposition)
EUR/USD Short at 1.27207/TP 1.25200/SL fixed at 1.26900 (No risk proposition)
USD/RUB Short at 40.361/TP 40.000

Penders

I tweaked my penders but slightly today ... .


Notes

The only thing of note that happened today was a bit of Ruble strength in advance of tomorrow's rate decision, which caused USD/RUB to tumble a bit. I've moved the Take Profit up to 40.00 in case I have an opportunity to exit the entire position when the rate decision is announced (currently scheduled for 1:30 p.m. Moscow time), having garnished a respectable amount of swap on the position since I initiated it on September 29th (with the expectation that the RCB would keep the pair in the prescribed trading band, which it did not).

The Euro appears to be digesting its recent decline, and the AUD/NZD position continues to hover short of the yearly high and around the Double Top level I mentioned last night.

Usable Margin: 91.55%/Usable Maintenance Margin: 83.10%

AUD/NZD short SL fixed at break even (1.12506) (no risk proposition).

On the Live Side:

The week ended with my EUR/USD position striking its target price of 1.25200 and my AUD/NZD short (net position), stopping out at break even, for a total of 621.6 pips:



For the month, results were comparable to my demo, with 3200 pips or so in the bag, although the equity curve looks slightly rough in places:



Open Positions

EUR/CAD short at 1.42200/TP 1.40532/SL at 1.42100 (no risk proposition)
GBP/CAD short at 1.80512/TP 1.76000
USD/RUB short at 40.361/TP 40.00

Notes

The GBP/CAD short opened earlier today and is currently in the green.

USD/RUB dipped substantially yesterday, only to retrace a good portion of the dip in spite of the interest rate increase to 9.5%. A Zig (peak) has finally formed on the 4H around 43.75 or so, so I may add to the position should price strike that level again.

Great trading ZebraSquirl! I may be missed something but, I can't find in this thread what rule do you use to open a position, can you please tell me how do you filter your entry? Thanks.

thank you for sharing your experience. i have been looking for reliable fibo pivot indicator for MT4. pls advise if you come across any..

I've been playing with a couple of different things, to be honest.

When I was primarily using the Daily Fib Retracement Pivot Points to fashion entries and exits, I would first attempt to determine trend direction using the 200 period SMA (Simple Moving Average) on the 1H and 6H charts. If price was below the 200 period SMA on both charts, I would look to fashion sell entries; if price was above the 200 SMA on both those charts, I would look to fashion buy entries. If price was above on one, but below on the other, I would stay away from trading that pair temporarily.

For buys, I would fashion a good for day entry order to buy at the .236 and take profit at the .764 of the Daily Fib Retracement Pivot Points; for sells, vice versa (sell at the .764 and take profit at the .236).

If price didn't hit the TP price by the end of the New York close, I would look at the pair again to see if there was still agreement between the 1H and 6H charts and then add to the position in the direction of the original trade (if there continued to be agreement), adjusting the TP accordingly to ensure that the original position (plus any additions to the position) would result in a profit for the net position. If there was no agreement, I would generally stand aside, wait for agreement, and then add to the position in the direction of the original trade when agreement returned.

The problem that I encountered from time to time if I limited myself to the 1H and 6H charts was that I would frequently overlook the fact that a given pair was potentially in a range and that price in relation to the 200 period SMA wasn't necessarily helpful in that instance. Where a pair is ranging, you should be selling at the top of the range and buying at the bottom end, a fact that may conflict with price's relationship to the 200 period SMA in some cases.

So more recently, I have not only been looking at intraday time frames for a determination of whether a pair is trending solidly in a given direction, but also have been pulling out to a Daily time frame to make sure that I am not missing a "bigger picture" such as where a long-term range is in place and where I should be standing aside from a trade in order to take full advantage of the range.

More recently, though, I have been resorting to the ZigZag indicator for entries. This is due in part to the increased volatility we have been experiencing in the markets where intraday movement can easily exceed the span between the .764 and the .236, potentially cutting short profits and the practical fact that ZigZag points that indicate support/resistance areas that have occurred do not change, as compared to pivot points, which change regularly. For example, if you're using the Daily Fib Retracement Pivot Points, which are calculated based upon the previous day's high and low, those will change every day at the New York close.

So, it's kind of a time saver to, for instance, look at your chart with the ZigZag indicator, and then fashion entries for the entire week based upon immediately preceding previous price action. For instance, I am looking to sell bounces in EUR/USD, so I will fashion good until cancelled entry orders to sell the pair in the event that price hits the levels indicated by the "3's" (the most extreme ZigZag) on the attached chart:



And then, for my take profit, I will look to exit the position when price hits an "opposing" "3" (i.e., sell at 1.27690, TP 1.25000). If I continued to use the Daily Fib Retracement pivot points, I would be forced to hop on and enter orders when the new pivot points form (after the New York close). Naturally, you can go to Weekly Fib Retracement pivot points (which are calculated based upon the previous week's high/low), something I haven't really tried ... .

Also, use of Daily Fib Retracement Pivot Points (or any other pivot point which looks at the previous day's high/low in its calculation of levels) is going to be a short-term, intraday trading methodology; using the 4H Chart-based ZigZag is going to probably involve several days from entry to TP (at least that's been my experience; naturally, if you try to use the ZigZag indicator intraday, you might be able to get in and out of trades in short order; again, something I haven't tried).

Hope this info is helpful to you ... .

Out of all the ones I've looked at, this is probably visually the best one:

http://www.mql5.com/en/code/8020?utm...minal+codebase

I assume you'd want to buy at S3 and sell at R3 ... .

PSAR (Parabolic Stop and Reverse) Indicator Review

Majors

AUD/USD M: Down W: Down D: Up 4H: Down 1H: Down 30: Up
EUR/USD M: Down W: Down D: Down 4H: Down 1H: Down 30: Down
GBP/USD M: Down W: Down D: Up 4H: Down 1H: Up 30: Up
NZD/USD M: Down W: Down D: Down 4H: Down 1H: Down 30: Down
USD/CAD M: Up W: Up D: Down 4H: Up 1H: Down 30: Down
USD/JPY M: Up W: Up D: Up 4H: Up 1H: Up 30: Up

Crosses of Interest

AUD/NZD M: Up W: Up D: Up 4H: Up 1H: Up 30: Up
EUR/AUD M: Down W: Up D: Down 4H: Down 1H: Down 30: Down
EUR/CAD M: Down W: Down D: Down 4H: Up 1H: Up 30: Down
EUR/GBP M: Down W: Up D: Down 4H: Down 1H: Down 30: Up
EUR/JPY M: Down W: Up D: Up 4H: Up 1H: Up 30: Up
EUR/NZD M: Down W: Up D: Up 4H: Down 1H: Up 30: Down
GBP/AUD M: Down W: Up D: Down 4H: Down 1H: Up 30: Down
GBP/CAD M: Down W: Up D: Down 4H: Up 1H: Up 30: Down
GBP/JPY M: Up W: Up D: Up 4H: Up 1H: Up 30: Up
GBP/NZD M: Up W: Up D: Up 4H: Down 1H: Up 30: Up
EUR/TRY: M: Down W: Down D: Down 4H: Up 1H: Up 30: Down


The predominant theme I would say would be that of Yen weakness in light of last week's Abe bombshell. That being said, I am hesitant to get in on Yen crosses long this late in the game. I had entry orders set up for that last week (to get in on USD/JPY long on dips); it's just that the pair didn't dip enough for me to get some skin into the game. We need merely recall the BOJ's recent reaction to the quick run up to 110.00 for USD/JPY which led to statements of concern about the quick run-up to that level and subsequent Yen strength as a result, so my feeling is that I will not buy at mere "casual" dip in the pair's price; I'm going to look for a dip shown to have support of significance on a higher time frame (4H+) (e.g., around 108.25, which may take some time to develop).

Secondarily, Euro weakness predominates, not only in EUR/USD, but in virtually every other major Euro cross (the possible exception being EUR/JPY), so I will look to short those crosses (EUR/CAD, EUR/AUD, and EUR/NZD) on bounces.

Cable crosses are kind of a mixed bag, depending upon what they're crossed with. GBP/JPY appears bullish (duh, Yen weakness again), as does GBP/NZD. Out of all the GBP crosses that continue to appeal to me is GBP/CAD short on bounces or to the top of its arguable range (in place since early September) between 1.82 and 1.79.

That being said, I am keeping a close eye on GBP/NZD for the development of a short (I don't think it's necessarily there yet except as an extremely short-term play for example from resistance at 2.06-ish with a TP around 2.04):



(I see the pair kind of reverting to a range enjoyed around the beginning of October with some excursions beyond that in the middle of the month).

Additionally, I am eyeing an AUD/NZD short for a potentially large move off the double top or the September 5th high I discussed in postings last week (price is right at the 2014 high right now). Folks have talked about a breakout above the aforementioned high, but it has yet to materialize and short-term RSI may indicate decreased buyer interest in driving the pair higher:

On the Live Side:

Current Open Positions

EUR/CAD Short at 1.42200/TP 1.40532/SL Fixed at 1.421000 (No Risk Proposition)
GBP/CAD Short at 1.80512/TP 1.76000
USD/RUB Short at 40.361/TP 40.000 (Long-Term Carry)

Penders

I have a bunch of penders left over from last week, the majority of which will no doubt require tweaking once the market opens in 40 minutes time ... .


Notes

The GBP/CAD short position is in the green, but probably too close in pippage to make it into a no risk proposition with the setting of a stop.

The USD/RUB short position continues to defy gravity in spite of the RCB's rate hike last week. Russian banking authorities are looking into possible price manipulation on the 30th and 31st, but I doubt much will come of that.

Current Usable Margin: 94.06%/Usable Maintenance Margin: 88.11%