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The Dollar Cost Averaging Pivot Point Trading Method

  • #421
  • Oct 26, 2014 4:14pm Oct 26, 2014 4:14pm
On the Live Side:

Current Open Positions

EUR/CAD Short at 1.41697 w/10 pip grid down to 1.4070
EUR/NZD Short at 1.61800/TP 1.59150
EUR/USD Short at 1.26499 w/10 pip grid down to 1.2520
GBP/NZD Short at 2.03824/TP 2.00900
USD/RUB Short at 40.33/TP 40.00

Penders

The penders are pretty much the same as they are in the demo. (Getting a bit lazy here trying maintain both ... . I hope to just have one live TE shortly, which will obviate the necessity for running two different set-up's and save me time).


Notes

That USD/RUB short is proving to be somewhat pesky. Interesting to see what develops after repo sales/interest rate decision toward the end of the month ... .

Usable Margin: 91.93%/Usable Maintenance Margin: 83.86%
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #422
  • Oct 27, 2014 5:40pm Oct 27, 2014 5:40pm
On the Live Side:

Current Open Positions

EUR/CAD Short at 1.42296 w/10 pip grid down to 1.4070
EUR/NZD Short at 1.61800/TP 1.59150
EUR/USD Short at 1.26499 w/10 pip grid down to 1.2520
GBP/CAD Short at 1.81108/TP 1.79600
GBP/NZD Short at 2.03824/TP 2.00900
USD/RUB Short at 40.361/TP 40.00

Penders

The penders are pretty much the same as they are in the demo (although I don't have grids set up in the demo for either EUR/USD or EUR/CAD). Tweaked things a bit here and there. Unfortunately, nothing closed, but since the entries and TP's are based upon the ZigZag indicator (1H-4H, depending upon quality of the indicator; sometimes it's just too choppy on the 1H to figure out levels at which to fashion entries), the duration in the trades tends to be a bit longer ... .


Notes

A couple of penders executed between yesterday's open and today's New York close which either added to existing positions or established new ones.

Usable Margin: 89.28%/Usable Maintenance Margin: 78.56%
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #423
  • Oct 27, 2014 6:24pm Oct 27, 2014 6:24pm
On the Demo Side:

Well, I've got a virtual bevvy of penders set up based on the ZigZag indicator to take entries at price extremes, should those opportunities present themselves. Naturally, some of the entries are quite remote possibilities (such as the GBP/NZD short from 2.10, which is some 600 pips away), but I figured I'd set up and leave it there. It may not execute in the foreseeable future, but one never knows ... .

I also hate it when I was merely "keeping an eye" on certain pairs, only to take my eyes off them, and then have them strike the price extreme at which I was looking to enter. Better to set the entry up now when it's on my mind than later, when I bound to space it out.

I am naturally keeping in mind that this month's target is $54,501 (and that I got somewhat of a late start setting the darn thing up; the first test trade was on 10/9). Not sure what I'll do if it hits the goal early; only $705 to go ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #424
  • Oct 28, 2014 9:46am Oct 28, 2014 9:46am
On the Demo Side:

Getting quite close to goal of $54,501 ... . Quite possible that I'll make it by the end of the month with somewhat conservative exposure, which I don't think has exceeded 5:1. Of course, this could all change in a heartbeat ... .

I know this is only a demo, but I'm trying to make it as serious an experiment as possible, adhering to single position exposure/max exposure rules ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #425
  • Oct 28, 2014 10:37am Oct 28, 2014 10:37am
On the Live Side:

SL for EUR/NZD short placed at 1.61700 (+10 pips).
SL for GBP/CAD short placed at 1.81008 (+10 pips).

These positions are now no risk propositions ... .

Current Usable Margin: 87.54% Usable Maintenance Margin: 75.07%
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #426
  • Oct 28, 2014 4:37pm Oct 28, 2014 4:37pm
On the Live Side:

My EUR/CAD net short (consisting of two legs) hit its TP ... . Not much to shout about, really:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR:CAD Net Short TP.jpg Size: 79 KB


... after which it executed another sell at the next grid level, where it's kinda sitting right now.


Current Open Positions

EUR/CAD Short at 1.42200 w/10 pip grid down to 1.4070
EUR/NZD Short at 1.61800/TP 1.59150/SL fixed at 1.61700 (No risk proposition)
EUR/USD Short at 1.27003 w/10 pip grid down to 1.2520
GBP/CAD Short at 1.81108/TP 1.79600/SL fixed at 1.81008 (No risk proposition)
GBP/NZD Short at 2.03824/TP 2.00900 (Will fix SL at 2.03724 when price moves sufficiently into the green; currently at 2.03673)
USD/RUB Short at 40.361/TP 39.00

Penders

The penders pretty much mirror what's in the demo, although I don't have grids set up in the demo for the EUR/USD and EUR/CAD shorts.


Notes

EUR/USD added a couple of legs earlier today on dollar weakness (resulting in a now 4 leg net position), so I modified the TP to 1.2690 for the net position and inserted grid levels between that price and any gaps that developed between the new net position average price and the preexisting grid.

Usable Margin: 88.46%/Usable Maintenance Margin: 76.92%
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #427
  • Oct 28, 2014 4:49pm Oct 28, 2014 4:49pm
On the Demo Side:

I took some of the meat off the table by reducing profitable positions, in most cases, by half and will let the remainder of them run for the time being. Naturally, I'm getting kind of close to my monthly target ($54,501), so I want to make sure that I don't screw that up if I can ... .

So close to the goal right now ... . About $81 to go, with three days left in the week.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #428
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:03pm Oct 28, 2014 5:03pm
So annoying that my live is less productive than my demo (started on 10/9).

The demo:

Attached Image


The live:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Live 10:9 MTD.jpg Size: 146 KB


3,000 pips plus in the demo; 1800 in live -- quite a diff.

But I think that there's a simple explanation for this. The demo, since it doesn't involve live funds, allows for greater patience. For example: so what, after all, that your demo's in a 20% drawdown ... . It's a demo. Acting under duress with live money is a whole different show. If I could just incorporate that lack of anxiety into the live, I'd be golden. Truth be told, I didn't make the exact trades in the live as I did in the demo, but it just goes to show.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #429
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:27pm Oct 28, 2014 5:27pm
So, ultimately, one of the things I'm going to do in order to get some kind of similar performance in the live as I'm getting in the demo is () to ditch the grids on the EUR/USD and EUR/CAD shorts.

I will continue to short these pairs based upon 4H ZigZag indicator values with the TP for the EUR/USD short net position at 1.2520 and the TP for the EUR/CAD net position at 1.40532, setting a fixed stop loss to establish a no-risk proposition for these positions when the opportunity presents itself.

This will also clean up my Trading Station orders window ... . Hard to wade through and check 60 penders for a grid set up that is done manually ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #430
  • Oct 28, 2014 5:51pm Oct 28, 2014 5:51pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
So, ultimately, one of the things I'm going to do in order to get some kind of similar performance in the live as I'm getting in the demo is () to ditch the grids on the EUR/USD and EUR/CAD shorts. I will continue to short these pairs based upon 4H ZigZag indicator values with the TP for the EUR/USD short net position at 1.2520 and the TP for the EUR/CAD net position at 1.40532, setting a fixed stop loss to establish a no-risk proposition for these positions when the opportunity presents itself. This will also clean up my Trading Station...
When do you believe Eur/Usd will be shorted?? Its going up , up , n up!!!
  • #431
  • Oct 28, 2014 6:32pm Oct 28, 2014 6:32pm
Quoting behman8850
{quote} When do you believe Eur/Usd will be shorted?? Its going up , up , n up!!!
Long-term -- sell on bounces ... . But retracement to 1.2875-ish certainly not out of the question.

Here's another take on the long scenario (which I consider somewhat remote due to fundamentals surrounding Eurozone strength): http://www.efxnews.com/story/26689/e...gher-jp-morgan
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #432
  • Oct 28, 2014 6:55pm Oct 28, 2014 6:55pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Long-term -- sell on bounces ... . But retracement to 1.2875-ish certainly not out of the question. Here's another take on the long scenario (which I consider somewhat remote due to fundamentals surrounding Eurozone strength): http://www.efxnews.com/story/26689/e...gher-jp-morgan
And then there is this view at the other extreme, with a prognostication that EUR/USD will reach 1.15 within three years: http://www.efxnews.com/story/26682/e...orecast-socgen

But to contrast the two forecasts, so to speak ... . One is a relatively short-term proposition (the J.P. Morgan), the other, a long-term one. I am in the long-term, sell-on-bounces camp with this pair (although I think it's ridiculous to forecast three years out; they're basically just picking a number out of their butts). So I'm taking relatively miniature positions at price extremes over time, looking for large pip movement on the net position. This, in fact, is one of the few pairs that I'm comfortable doing this with; I otherwise want to be in and out in less than a week if possible.

Just not comfortable trading this pair "dynamically," since there is a profound downward trend in place.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #433
  • Oct 28, 2014 7:01pm Oct 28, 2014 7:01pm
But I don't think that 1.2 (around the .5 Fib from the October 2000 low to the July 2008 high) is entirely out of the question:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EUR:USD Monthly.jpg Size: 210 KB
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #434
  • Oct 28, 2014 8:34pm Oct 28, 2014 8:34pm
Quoting ZebraSquirl
{quote} Long-term -- sell on bounces ... . But retracement to 1.2875-ish certainly not out of the question. Here's another take on the long scenario (which I consider somewhat remote due to fundamentals surrounding Eurozone strength): http://www.efxnews.com/story/26689/e...gher-jp-morgan

My Broker FXCM does NOT allow long orders If you are in a short position!
  • #435
  • Oct 28, 2014 8:44pm Oct 28, 2014 8:44pm
Quoting behman8850
{quote} My Broker FXCM does NOT allow long orders If you are in a short position!
Hi behman8850
Can you explain this a littler be more please? I use FXCM that is the reason of my question.
Thanks.
  • #436
  • Oct 28, 2014 11:13pm Oct 28, 2014 11:13pm
Quoting behman8850
{quote} My Broker FXCM does NOT allow long orders If you are in a short position!
Quoting malejandrosf
{quote} Hi behman8850 Can you explain this a littler be more please? I use FXCM that is the reason of my question. Thanks.
Right. I also cannot hedge (hold long and short positions in the same pair at the same time in the same account).

I am currently short EUR/USD and will continue short for a good time. So a long is not an option for me unless I want to exit that short and turn around and enter a long position -- ain't gonna happen. Even if I was not in the pair at all at the moment, I would not go long from this level as a long-term play.

Just wanted to look at both scenarios to reassure myself that short was the way to go long-term ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #437
  • Edited 7:20am Oct 29, 2014 7:08am | Edited 7:20am
On the Demo Side:

G-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-O-A-A-A-A-A-A-A-L (Made it to $54,501 for this month).

Gonna stay on the sidelines with that until the 1st ... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #438
  • Oct 29, 2014 7:19am Oct 29, 2014 7:19am
On the Live Side:

GBP/NZD short S/L set at 2.03724, making it a no-risk proposition.

I'm leaving the "top" off the EUR/USD short (no stop) ... . Expecting some gyrations today and don't want it to stop out, since it is a long-term position.

Off the to day job ... . (Lowers head). Ugh.
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
  • #439
  • Oct 29, 2014 8:48am Oct 29, 2014 8:48am
Quoting malejandrosf
{quote} Hi behman8850 Can you explain this a littler be more please? I use FXCM that is the reason of my question. Thanks.
I used to have an a/c with FXDD But now that has merged with this FXCM where I can NOT take trade in BOTH ways. In fxdd If I had sold eur/usd, I could take opposite position n buy to make some profits without liquidating my previous position of short position. But with Fxcm you have to take the loss n then take opposite position if you want to buy .
  • #440
  • Oct 29, 2014 4:57pm Oct 29, 2014 4:57pm
Quoting behman8850
{quote} I used to have an a/c with FXDD But now that has merged with this FXCM where I can NOT take trade in BOTH ways. In fxdd If I had sold eur/usd, I could take opposite position n buy to make some profits without liquidating my previous position of short position. But with Fxcm you have to take the loss n then take opposite position if you want to buy .
Yeah. It's kind of a bummer .... .
Fireworks are fun ... as long as you don't blow your fingers off.
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