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Trading Made Simple

  • #42,761
  • Oct 27, 2014 12:19am Oct 27, 2014 12:19am
Quoting Ballistical
In short, very disappointing. However, a great week for learning and developing my trade plan. The losses seemed to highlight two main issues with my trades. 1. LO fakeout candles 2. Insufficient "breathing" room for trades. Without being too hasty, I plan to tweak my strategy slightly. (As highlighted by Phx62 many times) last week the LO candle set the high or low of the session 4 out of the 5 days (80%) presenting an obvious edge. Waiting for a break of the LO candle would have saved me several times this week. Also, having my SL move to BE after...

That's the spirit Ballistical
  • #42,762
  • Oct 27, 2014 12:22am Oct 27, 2014 12:22am
Quoting WDays
{quote} Hey dude, I didn't trade EA this week apart from this one trade on thursday that I also got out of with an 18 pipper loss after not locking breakeven before HIN (I was half awake and didn't account for it). I can see how you can be frustrated I had a pretty shitty few weeks before that, with all my trades going to breakeven and continuing in the direction I intended to trade. Here's my 2 cents, FWIW. First off, you enter a bit too late on some of your trades, might I suggest taking advantage of MOM and taking the trade the first 15 minutes...
WDays,

Thanks for your help!

With my entries, I was actually tempted to begin letting the LO candle fully close before deciding on an entry.

Agree with you on the trade buffer. 18 pips is not enough IMO and 30 pips is probably more reasonable.

The MTF TDI is something I am definitely interested in and I know LW is having much success with it. However, at this stage I am going to continue trying the core method. I did have two very successful weeks before this so I plan to trade this up until Xmas on demo and then decide from there.

Thanks again!

Ballistical
Focus on the process and the profits will follow
  • #42,763
  • Oct 27, 2014 12:23am Oct 27, 2014 12:23am
Quoting manoj_3986
LAST WEEK EA TRADE -Total 70pips with 4 BE trades. Last trade went quickly to my TP of 50 pips, so moved my tp to 100 pips but ultimately got out at BE. Need to learn when to stay in and when to stay out. {image} LAST WEEK EJ TRADE- Two trade hits TP of 50 pips. I usually don't keep trade open during week end but last trade was 3 pips away from my BE SL so kept it open with thinking that It would take BE SL. But fortunately it didn't and hit TP with Gap on Monday. {image} Total 170 pips
As always Manoj, thanks for your charts! Another great week!
Focus on the process and the profits will follow
  • #42,764
  • Oct 27, 2014 2:19am Oct 27, 2014 2:19am
For everyone trading with Session boxes, remember to double check your charts this morning. I've had to adjust mine since the clocks changed at the weekend and these don't seem to auto-update.

The correct times can be found in the bottom right hand corner on the FF homepage.

Good luck all!
Focus on the process and the profits will follow
  • #42,765
  • Oct 27, 2014 2:27am Oct 27, 2014 2:27am
Quoting Ballistical
{quote} As always Manoj, thanks for your charts! Another great week!
You were basically trading into supply above. Your bias on these areas of the charts needs to be short.

Also from a market profile aspect, the orange area would represent a 'low volume node.' What I've started doing is start projecting low volume areas from the previous day into the present.

However pullbacks into supply and demand are good high probability trades

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 15 KB


Will shortly be able to show trades, as currently my CFD/MT4 account is unfunded, and then have raise a ticket on my sb account which is a bit clunky, but a good discipline.
  • #42,766
  • Oct 27, 2014 3:13am Oct 27, 2014 3:13am
Quoting WDays
{quote} Hey dude, I didn't trade EA this week apart from this one trade on thursday that I also got out of with an 18 pipper loss after not locking breakeven before HIN (I was half awake and didn't account for it). I can see how you can be frustrated I had a pretty shitty few weeks before that, with all my trades going to breakeven and continuing in the direction I intended to trade. Here's my 2 cents, FWIW. First off, you enter a bit too late on some of your trades, might I suggest taking advantage of MOM and taking the trade the first 15 minutes...
Hi WDays,
I wanted to ask you this before. Do you only trade the first hour of LO or NYO? I mean not trading even the second candles? & if so why? I'm not sure but think that first candles could be tricky! what your experience tell us?
Yours
  • #42,767
  • Oct 27, 2014 3:27am Oct 27, 2014 3:27am
Quoting Kouroushi
{quote} Hi WDays, I wanted to ask you this before. Do you only trade the first hour of LO or NYO? I mean not trading even the second candles? & if so why? I'm not sure but think that first candles could be tricky! what your experience tell us? Yours
Hey bro, I trade the opens of markets because that's where price sets up and that's where you find "MOM" - market open momentum. Sometimes I wait for the candle right after LO or NYO, but rarely have to. The first hour of LO or NYO can indeed be tricky, which is why I have the H4 TDI, it just filters out all fakeys and I don't have to worry about a thing Sometimes I get drawdown, sometimes I take losses of course, but most times I manage to turn some coin.
  • #42,768
  • Oct 27, 2014 3:29am Oct 27, 2014 3:29am
Quoting hostwey
{quote} You were basically trading into supply above. Your bias on these areas of the charts needs to be short. Also from a market profile aspect, the orange area would represent a 'low volume node.' What I've started doing is start projecting low volume areas from the previous day into the present. However pullbacks into supply and demand are good high probability trades {image} Will shortly be able to show trades, as currently my CFD/MT4 account is unfunded, and then have raise a ticket on my sb account which is a bit clunky, but a good discipline....
Wow, you use market profile! I tried similar one long ago without much success. I'd like to hear more about your experiment later especially in terms of co-working with supply/demand zones.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #42,769
  • Oct 27, 2014 3:38am Oct 27, 2014 3:38am
EA long and AU short, TDI entries green crossed red plus breakout of indecision candles on H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EA AU H1 Mon 27.10.14 entry fr breakout of indicision candles.png Size: 102 KB
Appreciation is the key to wealth and happiness
  • #42,770
  • Oct 27, 2014 3:44am Oct 27, 2014 3:44am
Quoting likica
EA long and AU short, TDI entries green crossed red plus breakout of indecision candles on H1 {image}
I am watching EA too. Doesn't look have much momentum. Need to clear D pivot resistence first....
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #42,771
  • Oct 27, 2014 3:50am Oct 27, 2014 3:50am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Wow, you use market profile! I tried similar one long ago without much success. I'd like to hear more about your experiment later especially in terms of co-working with supply/demand zones.

Well I'm not an expert on MP by any means. Hopefully another tool in the armoury, but there is a correlation between low volume area's of the chart and supply and demand which will 'frame' the market in the short term, obviously as price reaches an unfair level and snaps back to what the markets perception of fair value is (where there are buyers and sellers). Here is EURGBP

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #42,772
  • Oct 27, 2014 3:58am Oct 27, 2014 3:58am
Quoting hostwey
{quote} Well I'm not an expert on MP by any means. Hopefully another tool in the armoury, but there is a correlation between low volume area's of the chart and supply and demand which will 'frame' the market in the short term, obviously as price reaches an unfair level and snaps back to what the markets perception of fair value is (where there are buyers and sellers). Here is EURGBP {image}
Hum, interesting.........
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
  • #42,773
  • Oct 27, 2014 4:11am Oct 27, 2014 4:11am
Like I said, I do take losses sometimes Exited on LO candle closing as a pullback candle and TDI hooking then crossing (RT TDI updates with every tick so it's crossed now). I had a bull bias due to an H4 divergence and seemingly exhausted bears as seen on a daily and H4 chart. Took the entry as London opened, unfortunately IFO took it down. Good thing I exited for a 10 pip loss and no more. Ship happens Will be back this afternoon
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUDH1.png Size: 64 KB
  • #42,774
  • Oct 27, 2014 4:35am Oct 27, 2014 4:35am
EURAUD 27 Oct H1 trade LO+1.

Today Tokyo close just one hour after London open due to the UK DST changeover.
Took this trade based on price action and support and reistance using Day OHLC.
Shallow retracement.
Trade away for the 200EMA and Day 10EMA
Last Friday was a bearish candle so I look for continuation of the bearish move.
Support below around 1.4360, but there is room enough for quick scale out and TP.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD 27 Oct LO+1.png Size: 37 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #42,775
  • Oct 27, 2014 4:47am Oct 27, 2014 4:47am
Guys,
In Phx62 posts I found Pullback Candle Reverse Formation (PCRF). The only characteristic I could find about them is having a big wick (like a pinbar) near important S/R?
What are they exactly?
  • #42,776
  • Oct 27, 2014 4:51am Oct 27, 2014 4:51am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EURAUD 27 Oct H1 trade LO+1. Today Tokyo close just one hour after London open due to the UK DST changeover. Took this trade based on price action and support and reistance using Day OHLC. Shallow retracement. Trade away for the 200EMA and Day 10EMA Last Friday was a bearish candle so I look for continuation of the bearish move. Support below around 1.4360, but there is room enough for quick scale out and TP. {image}
Thanks for the update and knowledge Emman. I closed both EA and AU opened earlier. now in EA short with the trend but against Mel weather today
Appreciation is the key to wealth and happiness
  • #42,777
  • Oct 27, 2014 4:55am Oct 27, 2014 4:55am
Quoting Kouroushi
Guys, In Phx62 posts I found Pullback Candle Reverse Formation (PCRF). The only characteristic I could find about them is having a big wick (like a pinbar) near important S/R? What are they exactly?
A pcrf (or pullback candle as coined by x-man) is

  1. When price is trending up, the PB candle will print a higher high, but close lower. The larger the wick, the surer the setup.
  2. When price is trending down, the PB candle will make a lower low, but close higher. The larger the wick, the surer the setup.

A PCRF is only valid when TDI crosses on the open of the next candle. A PCRF is required to have a very small upper wick (in the case of a bearish PCRF) or small lower wick (in the case of a bullish PCRF), as opposed to a large wick in the direction of the prior trend. The longer the wick, the more sure you can be that it's truly a reversal formation.

Check out my EA chart in my last post, I called the LO candle a PCRF and it was my reason to exit with a minimised loss - because I knew there were high odds of the trend reversing and taking out my "emergency" 50 pip SL.

  • #42,778
  • Oct 27, 2014 5:12am Oct 27, 2014 5:12am
Quoting heispark
{quote} Hum, interesting.........
Yes here is EURAUD M15 and I have a lime green line which has been acting as a floor on EURAUD over the past few days excepting a few false breaks below it (simply no volume below - no buyers or sellers).

My feeling is that institutions will be looking to widen the range a little, so while we will undountedly see a bounce at that level, I think we could see EURAUD go down to next level. My bias on the EURO at the moment is bearish is its a funding currency of the carry trade.

All experimental at the moment, so as usual lets see!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 27 KB
  • #42,779
  • Oct 27, 2014 5:15am Oct 27, 2014 5:15am
Quoting WDays
{quote} A pcrf (or pullback candle as coined by x-man) is When price is trending up, the PB candle will print a higher high, but close lower. The larger the wick, the surer the setup. When price is trending down, the PB candle will make a lower low, but close higher. The larger the wick, the surer the setup. A PCRF is only valid when TDI crosses on the open of the next candle. A PCRF is required to have a very small upper wick (in the case of a bearish PCRF) or small lower wick (in the case of a bullish PCRF), as opposed to a large wick in the direction...
Thank you WDays,
So the trade I took right now is kind of a PCRF I suppose.
I had a Pinbar (PCRF) below RN with H1 TDI hooking down & H4 green line stepping down.
though, H4 TDI is not crossed down & I guess today would be another usual Monday with lots of fakeouts.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusdh1.png Size: 34 KB
  • #42,780
  • Oct 27, 2014 5:17am Oct 27, 2014 5:17am
Quoting Kouroushi
Guys, In Phx62 posts I found Pullback Candle Reverse Formation (PCRF). The only characteristic I could find about them is having a big wick (like a pinbar) near important S/R? What are they exactly?
You can read this pdf, it's an explanation of PCRF from Phx's posts with examples. Hope this helps.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf PCRF.pdf   764 KB | 798 downloads
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