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EURUSD

  • #931,401
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:06pm Oct 23, 2014 10:06pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Lololo!! You got it Chicky. I'll do just that.
  • #931,402
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:08pm Oct 23, 2014 10:08pm
so is it going up or down ?
  • #931,403
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:21pm Oct 23, 2014 10:21pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting metta87
so is it going up or down ?
If you're trading the London session just wait & see. I doubt the patter will survive the London session. Not to mention it's a Friday. Could see a really nice impulsive move in either direction.

Wait & see. False breaks do happen. It's not fool proof but generally speaking it's a high probability trade by simply just taking the breakout. Give it some room when it does start to break. Maybe even wait for a full 4HR candle to close in either direction then simply enter at market or drop down to a lower TF & take a shallow FIB level like a .38 or so. Use the FIB extensions for profit targets. Stops go below the patterns low or high which should also be the weekly low or high.
  • #931,404
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:33pm Oct 23, 2014 10:33pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Either way it moves. One could argue a clear downtrend was in place on the first 3 examples dating back to September 23rd. Meaning you only take the shorts. Ignore the false breaks to the upside. The real moves are in the red bear candles to the downside. Very impulsive, determined & quick. Generally 2 4HR candles & she's done. Price & time... Price & time... Price & time...
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  • #931,405
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:37pm Oct 23, 2014 10:37pm
i wonder of Frankfurt and London interpretation of ebola outbreak in NY... dont forget 99% of business is show business... and i am sure that the ebola outbreak in NY will catch their eyes...just not quite sure if yes how much and to what extend...

otherwise we are looking at a bearish EURUSD... especially if the german consumer report is not that good even for a fraction..
  • #931,406
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:38pm Oct 23, 2014 10:38pm
Quoting metta87
so is it going up or down ?
both
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #931,407
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:41pm Oct 23, 2014 10:41pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} both
haha..nice answer! I would agree..a short term upward retrace to major resistance levels (or to suck in traders to a BullTrap) then resumption of the down trend..however may not be so simple as news can trump technicals...! Trade what you see perhaps! As for me I am long on the EURUSD for now but not hanging around too long though!!
I like Chicky's style!
  • #931,408
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:48pm Oct 23, 2014 10:48pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting four.owls
{quote} ..however may not be so simple as news can trump technicals...! Trade what you see perhaps!
News are technicals...
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  • #931,409
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:48pm Oct 23, 2014 10:48pm
Quoting harrysmithm
{quote} yes.....But I do not think he would short the top because of just the top, he would wait for weakens at the top and measure the strength of the new bulls trying to test the recent high..... from there he would enter partial (probably at the recent swing low) and when showing profit (that he was right) he would add more...... I do not think he would risk 1% per trade, but more like 10% per trade....so in today trading it is possible to make very good money on only 300-400 pips gain by risking 10% per trade and adding when proving right by...
Everybody would short a top and buy a bottom if these were easy to identify.

You are right about him, but 10% is very conservative estimate. He mentioned several times that his loss was never a total loss, he would keep some money to live another day. To me, that should be something around 60% to 70%. But it wasn't an issue for him, because a good trade would make remaining 30% back again 100% or 300% in no time. The biggest advantage he had was being right 7 out of 10 times (this is quite different from 70%, seven out of every 10 times is much much better than 70 out of every 100 time). Another big advantage he had was the commodity trading, his base was commodities. He also traded stocks but never currencies. I was initially of the opinion that his methods cannot be effectively applied in currency market, but now believe one can do that to a great extent.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #931,410
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:50pm Oct 23, 2014 10:50pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Sorry... Too much...?
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  • #931,411
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:59pm Oct 23, 2014 10:59pm
Quoting eggs
{quote} News are technicals... {image}
okay cheeky!! But News may not always be precipitated and not like a chart that gives you more time to plan your attack! News can come out of the blue and it is a well known fact that it can blow through technicals such as chart analyis, PAT patterns etc! I personally don't trade the news as my major part of technique but very simple PAT but with a wary eye on news..
  • #931,412
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:20pm Oct 23, 2014 11:20pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Everybody would short a top and buy a bottom if these were easy to identify. You are right about him, but 10% is very conservative estimate. He mentioned several times that his loss was never a total loss, he would keep some money to live another day. To me, that should be something around 60% to 70%. But it wasn't an issue for him, because a good trade would make remaining 30% back again 100% or 300% in no time. The biggest advantage he had was being right 7 out of 10 times (this is quite different from 70%, seven out of every 10 times...
yes....

if you look at sugar, coffee, cocoa and others like indices they have more define structure also only technicality or the lack of it could be enough to be consistent profitable, in forex we have many sharks we need to deal with and if my cat farts the dollar might move in the short term.
  • #931,413
  • Oct 23, 2014 11:22pm Oct 23, 2014 11:22pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting four.owls
{quote} okay cheeky!! But News may not always be precipitated and not like a chart that gives you more time to plan your attack! News can come out of the blue and it is a well known fact that it can blow through technicals such as chart analyis, PAT patterns etc! I personally don't trade the news as my major part of technique but very simple PAT but with a wary eye on news..
Sorry... Meant nothing by it. Wasn't really trying to start a news vs/ technicals debate. It really can turn into the chicken & the egg thing pretty quickly. My bad. One really must consider both in respects to trading.
  • #931,414
  • Oct 24, 2014 12:17am Oct 24, 2014 12:17am
Time to buy eu back up to 1.28!!!
150 pips move
  • #931,415
  • Oct 24, 2014 12:17am Oct 24, 2014 12:17am
I start seeing bull factors in bear market, but don't know what it means.

Raising my tp for a long entered at 1.2728 from 1.2760 to 1.3245 (it is still 50 pips below 1.3295). Anticipating a trend reversal or a huge correction. Small bull factors now showing big impact.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #931,416
  • Oct 24, 2014 12:25am Oct 24, 2014 12:25am
Quoting Chicky
I start seeing bull factors in bear market, but don't know what it means. Raising my tp for a long entered at 1.2728 from 1.2760 to 1.3245 (it is still 50 pips below 1.3295). Anticipating a trend reversal or a huge correction. Small bull factors now showing big impact.

why not a plain round 1.3250 number?
  • #931,417
  • Oct 24, 2014 12:35am Oct 24, 2014 12:35am
Quoting Kgp
{quote} why not a plain round 1.3250 number?
to make it look more fancy

few here are known to give weird numbers

1.2644
1.2677
1.2681

just make it look more fancy
Don't speculate trade with surety.
  • #931,418
  • Oct 24, 2014 12:40am Oct 24, 2014 12:40am
Nice wedge forming on the lower time frames. Im following PA whichever way it breaks it!

I want to short but Im sick of getting Bulled out of my shorts so Ill follow a move up from here if that's what price wants to do.
  • #931,419
  • Oct 24, 2014 12:56am Oct 24, 2014 12:56am
Quoting Kgp
{quote} why not a plain round 1.3250 number?
1.3992 to 1.2499 ------>1.3246 %50 retracement
1.3699 to 1.2499 ------>1.3241 %61.8 retracement
  • #931,420
  • Oct 24, 2014 12:59am Oct 24, 2014 12:59am
relax....i was teasing chinky
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