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  • #931,381
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:56pm Oct 23, 2014 6:56pm
Quoting suthmo
{quote} 29x I see it can go to 1.2256 on 21st Nov. It's having a nice nap now lol.
it has not voided 2929.. 2604 would do that. there is a larger setup for 4301 we have to break at 2042.. its mid is 2606.. some larger bulls are still playing it for the bounce. on that path we came to the 1/4 mark. if u take the 2500 low and fib it out to 4301 using 1/8ths.. you will see what has happened since. the month not closing sub 2606 gives bulls a little power. put those 1/8ths on a chart
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #931,382
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:00pm Oct 23, 2014 7:00pm
Quoting Kgp
Morgan Stanley recommends selling EUR/JPY, targeting 130.00 another blow to EUR?
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...29#post7816929
they read ff
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #931,383
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:11pm Oct 23, 2014 7:11pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} it has not voided 2929.. 2604 would do that. there is a larger setup for 4301 we have to break at 2042.. its mid is 2606.. some larger bulls are still playing it for the bounce. on that path we came to the 1/4 mark. if u take the 2500 low and fib it out to 4301 using 1/8ths.. you will see what has happened since. the month not closing sub 2606 gives bulls a little power. put those 1/8ths on a chart
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} i know there are some large players shooting for 1.4xx.. that's what 2539 2606 and 2673 are about and the sub levels between. 2673x is a um.. at 2618 atm.. start closing -2612 and -2606 or it will become support. if not some lower 24xx targets are in the future. this should give the bulls the memo, or a higher bounce w/o those closes http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...87#post7772987
like 2639/40. so far bulls held the closes above 2612 and 06.. another floater at 2601.. so a trip to 2639/40 wouldn't be a big surprise. 2652 may be a R now also.

bulls many times want 2587 before a bounce. less likely if the closes are below those levels,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;
1/8 ths and 16ths.. its so large a area, 32nds can be used
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #931,384
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:15pm Oct 23, 2014 7:15pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} Quoting gatorinla {quote} i know there are some large players shooting for 1.4xx..
one of them is credit agricole...they announced it last week (if i remember correct... 1.31 with [email protected]) on the other hand BNP announced exactly the opposite (we are heading to 1.22 according to them)
  • #931,385
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:33pm Oct 23, 2014 7:33pm
within secs the sentiment now is on a buy....or is it my impression?
  • #931,386
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:38pm Oct 23, 2014 7:38pm
Quoting Kgp
within secs the sentiment now is on a buy....or is it my impression?
ej giving up the booty
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #931,387
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:40pm Oct 23, 2014 7:40pm
Quoting Kgp
within secs the sentiment now is on a buy....or is it my impression?
2645 was to setup 2693.. i have a norm at 2795 if 2752 area lets it pass... others 2725 and 39.. 2673+ closes are probably bullish.. even 2670
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #931,388
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:47pm Oct 23, 2014 7:47pm
ej? or ebola in new york...two testes positive one (a girlfriend) contained?
  • #931,389
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:50pm Oct 23, 2014 7:50pm
Quoting Kgp
ej? or ebola in new york...two testes positive one (a girlfriend) contained?
i am trading techs. someone will always come after the fact and say it was "mark furmen "
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #931,390
  • Oct 23, 2014 7:52pm Oct 23, 2014 7:52pm
ok closed all my positions now (thankfully in green) and waiting the outcome...

Japans health minister is making matters worse for "calculating" market reactions... with his comment ...especially when this happened in new york (and the psycological importance to the eyes it has to all the world and therefore the markets)



i wish mt4 had OCO orders... it would have made my life more (at times like this one)...easier...
  • #931,391
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:00pm Oct 23, 2014 9:00pm
Quoting Kgp
ok closed all my positions now (thankfully in green) and waiting the outcome... Japans health minister is making matters worse for "calculating" market reactions... with his comment ...especially when this happened in new york (and the psycological importance to the eyes it has to all the world and therefore the markets) i wish mt4 had OCO orders... it would have made my life more (at times like this one)...easier...
Added one more short, now two trades in usd/jpy position, can add up to 10. Each position seeking 1% risk and 10% reward. That means if I strictly follow my rules (which I doubt) can either lose 10% max or make anything between 20% to 100% in this one move of 1000 pips. Currently, collected about 11% playing bounces in the opposite direction whenever usd/jpy hits a support. If I am right, get few pips, but If I am wrong, it gets deducted from my profit on longer-term short. I think it makes sense only if each bounce is played at a level lower than the previous one. This seems simple, but involves some technicalities, for example the bounces may not be necessarily played on usd/jpy, position size, when to exit, etc. ............................................................. But, there is only one thing you need to know in this business.
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The Thief of Wall Street
  • #931,392
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:06pm Oct 23, 2014 9:06pm
i just added a sort myself... higher than at the point my other sorts were closed before...
  • #931,393
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:08pm Oct 23, 2014 9:08pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} Added one more short, now two trades in usd/jpy position, can add up to 10. Each position seeking 1% risk and 10% reward. That means if I strictly follow my rules (which I doubt) can either lose 10% max or make anything between 20% to 100% in this one move of 1000 pips. Currently, collected about 11% playing bounces in the opposite direction whenever usd/jpy hits a support. If I am right, get few pips, but If I am wrong, it gets deducted from my profit on longer-term short. I think it makes sense only if each bounce is played at a level...
If I may say, your is a losing game....sorry

It might work but only in the direction of the strength or in the direction of fundamentals, technically can help you get in.

Your entries was spot on, but against the major trend, against the major trend profit need to be taken quickly......

Yes you can be right sometime, but they will be very few to justify it....only my two cents....
  • #931,394
  • Edited 9:36pm Oct 23, 2014 9:21pm | Edited 9:36pm
chicky can you ask your wifes if they feel ok now...and that everything is back to normal (and back to .2640s as a start again)? so that i can "double validate" my two sorts just opened ;-))
  • #931,395
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:34pm Oct 23, 2014 9:34pm
Quoting harrysmithm
{quote} If I may say, your is a losing game....sorry It might work but only in the direction of the strength or in the direction of fundamentals, technically can help you get in. Your entries was spot on, but against the major trend, against the major trend profit need to be taken quickly...... Yes you can be right sometime, but they will be very few to justify it....only my two cents....
This is exactly what I mean. "There is only one thing you need to know in this market". One has to be right about the long-term direction. It all depends if I am right or wrong about this direction. The key is, my losses should be small if I am wrong and profits huge if I am right.

I did extensive research on Jesse Livermore's method. Mathematically, his method was a holy grail but only if he was right in predicting the direction. If he was wrong about the direction, his math would limit his losses. If he was lucky, would multiply his account several times in a move. But if he was not that lucky, would still earn about 100% or so in one move.

Some of this words, not exactly, but something like this:
I waited for xxxx weeks before taking this position
Wanted to make sure. It is always good to be right in first time. It doesn't pay if one is not right from the beginning.
There are many bulls in the start of a bull move but many don't sit tight
I saw 60% of my profit vanish
Book profits are book profit
If it was not wise to remain short, it was equally unwise not to go long
Any mathematician will tell you that if you do like that your losses will be much smaller than your profits.
When you should get out, just get out
One should always look for a better price
Follow the line of least resistance
There will be a break and then some good bargains

This and many other of his quotes describe his method .................... pure money management and seeking longer-term direction, nothing else.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #931,396
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:34pm Oct 23, 2014 9:34pm
a bit of reading from Speradeo as to enter against the trend :
Vic Speradeo has traded for such famous traders as - George Soros, Leon Cooperman and BT Alex Brown. His market crash prediction during the September 1987 Barron’s interview earned him widespread fame and he is frequently featured in media and has authored several best selling books.

Here we will look at some simple trading rules he introduced in his first book Trader Vic Methods of a Wall Street Master.
In technical analysis Spreandeo follows various standard technical indicators to define trends and lock into them. The following are methods which are simple and are used in his trading strategy. First let's look at his definition of a trend and trend line and then look at the 1,2,3 Rule, the 2b Rule and the 4 Day Rule.
Definition of aTrend

  1. “An uptrend is a sequence of prices which move tosuccessively higher highs, punctuated by pull backs, with each pullback low ending above the previous pull back low.”

    and conversely for a downtrend:
    “A downtrend is a sequence of declines to successively lower lows, punctuated by rallies, with each rally high ending below the previous rally high.”

    From the definition of a trend, a trend line can be given a precise definition.
    *”An uptrend line is drawn under prices, joining the lowest low to the highest pullback low which does not pass the line through prices in between. The line is then extended past the date of the highest high”.

    The condition that the line must not pass through prices between the points it joins means that it's not necessarily the most recent low which is joined, but might be only a prior one. When the line is extended to the right, it might then pass through prices, that's a possible indication of a trend change. A downtrend line is defined similarly,
    *”A downtrend line is drawn above prices, joining the highest high to the lowest rally high which does not pass the line through prices in between. The line is then extended past the date of the lowest low”

The 1-2-3 Rule
Sperandeo identifies a change of an uptrend as:

1. Trend line (defined above) broken.: 2. Prices no longer making new highs.: 3. Prices fall below a previous minor rally low

Or conversely for a down trend:

1. Trend line (defined above) broken.: 2. Prices no longer making new lows.: 3. Prices fall rise above a previous minor rally high.

Either of 1 or 2 is a probable trend change. Two of the three conditions is an increased probability of a change. All three is th

  • #931,397
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:48pm Oct 23, 2014 9:48pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This is exactly what I mean. "There is only one thing you need to know in this market". One has to be right about the long-term direction. It all depends if I am right or wrong about this direction. The key is, my losses should be small if I am wrong and profits huge if I am right. I did extensive research on Jesse Livermore's method. Mathematically, his method was a holy grail but only if he was right in predicting the direction. If he was wrong about the direction, his math would limit his losses. If he was lucky, would multiply his account...
A thought reminded me of an old poster here, Psiholog http://www.forexfactory.com/psiholog . He used to trade based on short-term trends, described as Channels (two parallel lines binding the pa on a chart). We now have replaced this kind of trading with calculated numbers, but the basic idea remains the same. If one combines everything, can come up with a fairly workable method.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #931,398
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:49pm Oct 23, 2014 9:49pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Anyone else see an old familiar PA formation on the 4hr? It really should be too easy.

I'm not sure how things go to shite in such a hurry sometimes lol. Good luck everyone.
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  • #931,399
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:55pm Oct 23, 2014 9:55pm
Quoting eggs
Anyone else see an old familiar PA formation on the 4hr? It really should be too easy. I'm not sure how things go to shite in such a hurry sometimes lol. Good luck everyone. {image}
Look for red colored items where you are, will find something new. I will focus on green in my surrounding.

Beauty is in the eye of beholder .................................................................... why they don't say "eyes"?
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #931,400
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:02pm Oct 23, 2014 10:02pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} This is exactly what I mean. "There is only one thing you need to know in this market". One has to be right about the long-term direction. It all depends if I am right or wrong about this direction. The key is, my losses should be small if I am wrong and profits huge if I am right. I did extensive research on Jesse Livermore's method. Mathematically, his method was a holy grail but only if he was right in predicting the direction. If he was wrong about the direction, his math would limit his losses. If he was lucky, would multiply his account...
yes.....But I do not think he would short the top because of just the top, he would wait for weakens at the top and measure the strength of the new bulls trying to test the recent high..... from there he would enter partial (probably at the recent swing low) and when showing profit (that he was right) he would add more......

I do not think he would risk 1% per trade, but more like 10% per trade....so in today trading it is possible to make very good money on only 300-400 pips gain by risking 10% per trade and adding when proving right by trailing your stop by steps by your initial risk....

EDIT: Also for sure he was not trading currencies....
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