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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #49,321
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:27am Oct 23, 2014 8:27am
Quoting Vermillion
....Wow. Just Wow. This pair is so extremely overbought by intraday standards that it's not even funny. USD unemployment claims did nothing to damper the bullish momentum...
Its overbought like crazy on the 5 min, on the h1 I guess it's still got enough to go, if the numbers come out good till about 10ish EST, I'd say it'll bounce around there for some more in an uptrend fashion but eventually yeah it's going to drop, don't see anything else on the calendar after 10.
  • #49,322
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:27am Oct 23, 2014 8:27am
Quoting Dr.Blue
{quote} This had better go down by at least 20 pips now..
Anyone think it'll breach 109?
  • #49,323
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:28am Oct 23, 2014 8:28am
Quoting Vermillion
....Wow. Just Wow. This pair is so extremely overbought by intraday standards that it's not even funny. USD unemployment claims did nothing to damper the bullish momentum, and now we're dancing on 85-90 RSI levels in the 5 minute chart. Only one question: How much risk should I take at shorting the 108 mark?
108 round number is naturally a resistance by itself, plus other resistances make 108 a quite powerful number in overall. Shorting at 108 carries a nice ratio R/R (20-40pips SL) because tmr data may well support the move, which can drag the price down
  • #49,324
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:29am Oct 23, 2014 8:29am
Quoting Dr.Blue
Short kicked in @ 108.0 - Let's see what happens.
That was tp but i moved it up. gonna see what it wants to do. mind as well wait till tomorrow.
  • #49,325
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:41am Oct 23, 2014 8:41am
200 sma on 4hr TF might provide some resistance.
  • #49,326
  • Oct 23, 2014 8:49am Oct 23, 2014 8:49am
Hello~~~
IMO I do believe that the pair will go according to this chart pattern
seemed to have broken out with a good push
strongly suggesting heading toward TP @ around 109.550
Attached Image
  • #49,327
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:08am Oct 23, 2014 9:08am
Strong push through the 108 level..I smell a bull trap by the big players.
  • #49,328
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:11am Oct 23, 2014 9:11am
Where could it end today?


Quoting freundr
Strong push through the 108 level..I smell a bull trap by the big players.
  • #49,329
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:16am Oct 23, 2014 9:16am
Quoting sthobani
Where could it end today? {quote}
Depends on how deep the pockets are of the big players..previous resistance was around the 108.40 level.
  • #49,330
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:16am Oct 23, 2014 9:16am
Short 108.14

TP 106.12
SL 108.55
  • #49,331
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:22am Oct 23, 2014 9:22am
hi donald
what do you think the timescales are for 106.12
  • #49,332
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:25am Oct 23, 2014 9:25am
Quoting sthobani
Where could it end today? {quote}
We've a minor resistance around 108.1 (probably going to be broken), followed by the 108.40/50 mark.

The reason as it turned out, was that the BOJ won't intervene for the moment, but the U.S. bonds and stocks are performing above expectations. We're going to see a correction before the market goes up again (current trend is bullish, seeing as how it's driven by recent data).

The only question is where does the correction end-personally, I'm looking for a bullish buy in somewhere around 15-25 pips below.

I'm also holding a small short, but I wouldn't bet on it to dip 30-40 pips when market sentiment is roaring for the dollar.

Short if you want, but I'd be very careful about your TP & SL if I were you.

Edit: I smell a bull trap as well. I wonder how many people will buy right now at around 108....
  • #49,333
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:30am Oct 23, 2014 9:30am
Quoting Dr.Blue
{quote} This had better go down by at least 20 pips now..
thought it was going to touch my SL @ 108.20.

Still willing this thing down...
  • #49,334
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:31am Oct 23, 2014 9:31am
Previous resistance at 108.18

Quoting freundr
{quote} Depends on how deep the pockets are of the big players..previous resistance was around the 108.40 level.
  • #49,335
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:32am Oct 23, 2014 9:32am
I don't know why I bother, or spend time reading this forum.. I don't know how many times I have read opinions and reviews by members of this forum about market calls that just confuse the shit out of me because they contradict my own calls, and prevent me from making money.

I had awesome positions @ 106.50, and 107.. all closed prematurely because of all the people screaming its going to tank, why its going to tank, etc etc...

I'm just as guilty for reading and believing everything here on this thread, I need to be more comfortable and confident with my own calls...

I can only suggest the same to everyone else...

/logging out, only to return to see the calender.

goodbye.
  • #49,336
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:38am Oct 23, 2014 9:38am
Quoting freundr
{quote} Depends on how deep the pockets are of the big players..previous resistance was around the 108.40 level.
Hi All,
yes, I think so.It may rest around 108.50
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #49,337
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:38am Oct 23, 2014 9:38am
And who's to blame? :-)
It is an opinion forum, not a trading instruction forum

Quoting pr3dict0r
I don't know why I bother, or spend time reading this forum.. I don't know how many times I have read opinions and reviews by members of this forum about market calls that just confuse the shit out of me because they contradict my own calls, and prevent me from making money. I had awesome positions @ 106.50, and 107.. all closed prematurely because of all the people screaming its going to tank, why its going to tank, etc etc... I'm just as guilty for reading and believing everything here on this thread, I need to be more comfortable and confident...
  • #49,338
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:43am Oct 23, 2014 9:43am
Quoting pr3dict0r
I don't know why I bother, or spend time reading this forum.. I don't know how many times I have read opinions and reviews by members of this forum about market calls that just confuse the shit out of me because they contradict my own calls, and prevent me from making money. I had awesome positions @ 106.50, and 107.. all closed prematurely because of all the people screaming its going to tank, why its going to tank, etc etc... I'm just as guilty for reading and believing everything here on this thread, I need to be more comfortable and confident...

I been there buddy! Please read a post I made ( post #36) not too long ago to help others out.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...24#post7809824
I love forex. One day it will love me back.
  • #49,339
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:45am Oct 23, 2014 9:45am
UJ will continue to go 108.60. If that level is broken then we'll see 109 levels again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ.jpg Size: 149 KB
Money never sleeps I can hear the dollar calling me
  • #49,340
  • Oct 23, 2014 9:52am Oct 23, 2014 9:52am
Quoting pr3dict0r
I don't know why I bother, or spend time reading this forum.. I don't know how many times I have read opinions and reviews by members of this forum about market calls that just confuse the shit out of me because they contradict my own calls, and prevent me from making money. I had awesome positions @ 106.50, and 107.. all closed prematurely because of all the people screaming its going to tank, why its going to tank, etc etc... I'm just as guilty for reading and believing everything here on this thread, I need to be more comfortable and confident...
Hi P

Sorry to hear that you closed good positions because of comments you read on this thread. I have had a look at where price is right now and indeed your account would have been screaming 'Thank you'.
You must realize that the market exists because people have different opinions and FF is such a place to voice them. Sometimes the consensus will align with your opinions and sometimes it wouldn't. When it aligns with your thoughts you feel epic and when it the other way you feel in the dumps.

Trade your own trade. Its your money. Follow your own trading plan at all times. If you blow your account doing that at least you blew it yourself and you know what to to do to improve. If you grow your account trading your own methods you feel epic and you will be able to do it again and again. If you manage to grow you account based on consensus you do not have a reproducible method.

Sorry for the lengthy writeup. I have been there before - many times

Olu
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
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