Hi Orly what do you think the upper level limit before the tipping point is ??
And to Mr. Nguyen's point about a low-volume, weak bullish breakout, the Fed hasn't been able to make 2.5% happen since the mini-correction of last week. That alone should have UJ bulls a little nervous.
It seems they will try to ramp UJ as high as possible and the next move, up or down, will come with US unemployment numbers. The irony is that if the numbers come in good, then the taper will definitely complete next week. That should, in theory, send the USD higher.
At the same time, investors will realise that the punchbowl is being taken away, putting risk-off into gear. A risk-off situation should send the UJ much lower as stocks come off and yields plunge.
Essentially, it is a wait-and-see game to determine what happens with US yields after the announcements in a couple of hours. I was thinking that the pair wouldn't break above 107. But no one is trading now. Everyone is just waiting, so it has been relatively easy to push price wherever they want to. After the data, big players will start to make big moves.
It's going to be interesting to see which way the market moves. My bet is currently short but I am underwater right now, so my bias is to the downside.
