Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading | Page 4 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

SIMPLE EA for a simple method needed!! 2 replies

Trading Made Simple the right way, and other trading lessons 334 replies

Trading is this Simple? Finally Explained simple and clearly! 46 replies

Stating The Obvious and The Quest For Wisdom 1,361 replies

Despair means - obvious 14 replies

Attachments: Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading
Exit Attachments

Simple Uncomplicated (obvious) trading

  • Linked: Simple trading method | Demo Account XXXXXX25
  • Expand
  • Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
Apr 26, 2015
Last Sync: Apr 26, 2015
to
No trading activity in this period.
  • #61
  • Oct 22, 2014 11:24am Oct 22, 2014 11:24am
Hello gspajon
Excellent thread and exactly what trading is all about.I too spent about 6yrs trying out all sorts of bells and whistles and in the end have come back to PA.
I use Ichimoku to give me trend and dynamic s&r but apart from that its pure PA.
Well done.
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #62
  • Oct 22, 2014 12:04pm Oct 22, 2014 12:04pm
Quoting Jenx
Hello gspajon Excellent thread and exactly what trading is all about.I too spent about 6yrs trying out all sorts of bells and whistles and in the end have come back to PA. I use Ichimoku to give me trend and dynamic s&r but apart from that its pure PA. Well done.
Thank you for your kind words Jenx

I used to use Ichimoku...I even wrote a book about it (purely for my own education). I found it too complicated for me...while it does show excellent support resistance and trend, it seemed a bit over done and made my charts really "busy". However, even though I do not use it...is refer to it often to get an idea of what trend is doing and price's position inside the trend.
  • #63
  • Oct 22, 2014 4:45pm Oct 22, 2014 4:45pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
In the spirit of the thread I'd appreciate input on the following:

Does the obvious bullish trend & subsequent momentum on the chart below entice anyone here to possibly entertain the idea of a continuation trade to the upside?

I'd really just like to get an idea of how those participating in the thread view & react to the price action on the chart. We can even leave the fact that this is the USDCAD out of it. I'm more interested in the interpretation of the price action.

Consider it a thought experiment?? I guess.

There are no right or wrong answers by the way... I was just curious.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily.png Size: 68 KB
  • #64
  • Oct 22, 2014 5:45pm Oct 22, 2014 5:45pm
Quoting eggs
...Does the obvious bullish trend & subsequent momentum on the chart below entice anyone here to possibly entertain the idea of a continuation trade to the upside? ... I'm more interested in the interpretation of the price action...
eggs,

Excellent example: I don't normally watch the USD/CAD. After today's big news event in Ottawa, I'm surprised it isn't down a little further. Just to be sure you really can't leave aside which pair it is...because each country (as today has proved) has its own unique news and fundamental environment that cannot be escaped, even thought I really don't make trading decisions based on them, they are without doubt essential to trading.

Trend: There are obviously a series of higher highs and higher lows. Therefore the trend is bullish at present

Price: Price has come down off the last high and started to consolidate. Today's bar (the last closed bar) looks like it wanted to form a bullish engulfing bar, but the events at the capital pushed prices down. However the good news is price appears to be recovering over the past few hours.

Levels: Price has retraced to a "logical" support area indicated by both the 61.8% fibo line as well as the resistance from the prior high.

Entry pattern: Not there!! Unfortunately today's candle does not constitute an entry for me so I (if I were considering this) would sit this one out. Prices may very well move higher, in fact I'd be surprised if they didn't. However for ME this wouldn't constitute an entry signal.

None of the entry signals I use are present...darn shame too. Who knows this may cave in tomorrow...I'll keep an eye on it and see if tomorrow or at the end of the week we get something worth trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily.png Size: 30 KB
  • #65
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:23pm Oct 22, 2014 8:23pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Nice analysis. Well done gspajon. It speaks volumes about what you're trying to do here for everyone. It's damned good advice. Undeniably the chart speaks for itself when it comes to a well established bullish trend. My focus was more about the how & when to trade or NOT to trade lol a scenario such as this.

I think the most important point you made is that you don't feel there's an entry signal that suites you. I feel much the same way. Maybe not enough to sit this one out but I will be watching it closely.

I wanted to post the same chart again. But I wanted to highlight the pattern in place on the impulse move up. The 1st 2 circles show full bullish candles with daily closes at the highs followed by retraces & continuation. In the last circle the pattern is broken. Long wicks & tails might show a different story.

I see early signs of exhaustion but the very last thing I want to do as a trader is try to pick tops & bottoms. Aside from poor money management it's one of the biggest mistakes a retail trader can make.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily2.png Size: 70 KB
  • #66
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:26pm Oct 22, 2014 8:26pm
looks like a fake break out

now under the R/S flip ?

my 2 cents
There has never been a statue erected in honor of a critic
  • #67
  • Oct 22, 2014 9:27pm Oct 22, 2014 9:27pm
Quoting eggs
...But I wanted to highlight the pattern in place on the impulse move up. The 1st 2 circles show full bullish candles with daily closes at the highs followed by retraces & continuation. In the last circle the pattern is broken. Long wicks & tails might show a different story. I see early signs of exhaustion but the very last thing I want to do as a trader is try to pick tops & bottoms. Aside from poor money management it's one of the biggest mistakes a retail trader can make. {image}
I would caution you about drawing to many conclusions based on just the candle sticks themselves...especially during the impulse part of the move. (that part that drives price in the direction of the trend)

The long wicks on the most recent move up only means that the sellers came in more quickly than they did on the first two impulse moves. The high close followed by an almost complete retrace on the second day is the same effect as doing it all on one day producing a long wick. I simply means that buyers exhausted at the high...the last time the sellers were ready more quickly. Could this mean a change in the "bullish wind"...I suppose it could but I wouldn't really draw that conclusion from the long wicks...what would more likely convince me is a long stall or consolidation at the level we're seeing here followed by either a new (and lower) low or a rally that peters out forming a lower or similar high.

These are exactly the kinds of tops that I lost so much money on...and that quite often end up being in the middle of the trend run when it is all said and done.

OK...I promise I'm going to bed now...
  • #68
  • Oct 22, 2014 10:14pm Oct 22, 2014 10:14pm
Quoting gspajon
Recently someone wrote me a private message asking for my definition of an "exhaustion" candle. As this person did not wish to have his views public (for obvious reasons) I thought I would answer here. It is a legitimate question as I have mentioned it in my trades a couple of times. First off let me say, as far as I know there is no generally accepted "definition" of an exhaustion candle. for me it is more a concept than a specific pattern that requires definition or criteria. I'll explain it to you this way: As we all know price movement is the...
Dear GSPAJON,

Thank you for exhaustion candle explanation, USDJPY and EURUSD both has placed the order "exhaustion" method.
​Really very useful for me. I think lot of trader get benefit from your valuable comments.

bye
ajentha
  • #69
  • Oct 23, 2014 5:29am Oct 23, 2014 5:29am
Hello,

this is walter peters school or I am wrong? I love it, no indicators just naked trading
  • #70
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:37am Oct 23, 2014 6:37am
Quoting jerry444
Hello, this is walter peters school or I am wrong? I love it, no indicators just naked trading
No sorry this is not Walter Peters...I'd never heard of him until this post...Had to find him on the internet. As I've said before. This method of trading is very old and while I'd like to think I'm a genius for inventing it...I'm not...it just took me a long time to recognize a good idea. So I guess you could say I'm a little "slow".
  • #71
  • Oct 23, 2014 6:39am Oct 23, 2014 6:39am
Update on USD/JPY:

The weekly trade has triggered and pulled back a bit, but so far its looking as I would anticipate.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade2-2.png Size: 20 KB
  • #72
  • Edited 8:21am Oct 23, 2014 8:09am | Edited 8:21am
Further UPDATE on USD/JPY:

Price has reached 70% of the first target after triggering the weekly trade. I have moved the stop up on the first trade only to break even plus a little.

While the 2nd trade is still at risk, the first trade is now risk free and only has 30% more of the distance to the Take Profit point to close.

Keep in mind I am managing each trade on the time frame in which the entry occurred. So in essence these are two trades...one on the daily chart (which is now at break even) and one on the weekly chart which triggered just a few hours ago.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade1-3.png Size: 21 KB
  • #73
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:15am Oct 23, 2014 10:15am
I am seeing good old-fashioned accumulation on the AUD/USD.
Prolonged bullish rejection of the crucial(historic) 0.8755 level and an extremely attractive swap rate to the long side (well over $5 with most brokers).
Anyone else see the same?
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #74
  • Oct 23, 2014 10:43am Oct 23, 2014 10:43am
Quoting Jenx
I am seeing good old-fashioned accumulation on the AUD/USD. Prolonged bullish rejection of the crucial(historic) 0.8755 level and an extremely attractive swap rate to the long side (well over $5 with most brokers). Anyone else see the same?
You may be right about accumulation...there is a very suspicious range forming (as I would expect) near a crucial and historic low...a perfect example of "Time Compression" as mentioned by Jason Alan Jankowski in his book Time Compression Trading.

However I'm not seeing anything I would take action on...For me...nothing to do but wait...if this does reverse it will create a higher high as seen on this chart. Then retrace and I'll jump on it at the next higher low...assuming my criteria are met.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily.png Size: 15 KB
  • #75
  • Edited 11:25am Oct 23, 2014 11:00am | Edited 11:25am
Quoting gspajon
{quote} You may be right about accumulation...there is a very suspicious range forming (as I would expect) near a crucial and historic low...a perfect example of "Time Compression" as mentioned by Jason Alan Jankowski in his book Time Compression Trading. However I'm not seeing anything I would take action on...For me...nothing to do but wait...if this does reverse it will create a higher high as seen on this chart. Then retrace and I'll jump on it at the next higher low...assuming my criteria are met. {image}
Absolutely. Fundamentally I also feel that the AUD is unreasonably weak and we have now also started to see Dollar "buying" on red news.Always a dead giveaway.
Just waiting for this to kick on to the upside and I'll be on it like a tramp on a kipper!
Where price is now, it has been before, and will be again.
  • #76
  • Oct 23, 2014 12:37pm Oct 23, 2014 12:37pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: CHFJPYDaily.png Size: 37 KB



pending buy,love this way of tradingengulfing bar after shown strength from pin,beauty
  • #77
  • Oct 23, 2014 12:56pm Oct 23, 2014 12:56pm
Quoting Tedge UK
pending buy,love this way of tradingengulfing bar after shown strength from pin,beauty
Again I am the bearer of bad news. This is not a trend...Higher high...lower low...so I wouldn't be trading it. However it is an engulfing bar. would try to wait on this pair for a lower high to form then a signal for a short.
  • #78
  • Oct 23, 2014 1:28pm Oct 23, 2014 1:28pm
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Again I am the bearer of bad news. This is not a trend...Higher high...lower low...so I wouldn't be trading it. However it is an engulfing bar. would try to wait on this pair for a lower high to form then a signal for a short.
although I take on board your analysis I will bet my chicken dinner that it will do as its told!!!
  • #79
  • Oct 23, 2014 1:30pm Oct 23, 2014 1:30pm
Quoting Tedge UK
{quote} although I take on board your analysis I will bet my chicken dinner that it will do as its told!!!
You are most likely right...I've never been very good at "predicting" the markets...I have resigned myself the the mediocrity of trading the probabilities...
  • #80
  • Oct 23, 2014 1:32pm Oct 23, 2014 1:32pm
This is the hardest part for me...waiting on the brink of either a good win or a complete failure.

USD/JPY is ALMOST there to the first target (within 11 pips)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade1-4.png Size: 21 KB
0 traders viewing now