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  • #41
  • Oct 20, 2014 8:57am Oct 20, 2014 8:57am
Hello gspajon, old friend. It's good to see you posting your wisdom on these threads and I wish you every success and fulfillment from this thread, to which I have subscribed.

Personally, I am still seeking "low hanging fruit" from the London open - dynamic moves at about 9am UK time, with the usual mixed results and frustrations. If I were clearer on what I am actually trying to do (like you, a lot is discretionary) I would have more to contribute.

Looking forward to some more of your clear charts and commentary.

Regards
Gone to a better place
  • #42
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:16am Oct 20, 2014 9:16am
Quoting smikester
Hello gspajon, old friend. It's good to see you posting your wisdom on these threads and I wish you every success and fulfillment from this thread, to which I have subscribed. Personally, I am still seeking "low hanging fruit" from the London open - dynamic moves at about 9am UK time, with the usual mixed results and frustrations. If I were clearer on what I am actually trying to do (like you, a lot is discretionary) I would have more to contribute. Looking forward to some more of your clear charts and commentary. Regards
Thanks much friend...its been a while since we spoke...but for me its been pretty much full circle now...except for all the theoretical BS and the latest and greatest "gee whiz look at that" indicator. I wish you all the prosperity you deserve...and that's a lot!!
  • #43
  • Oct 20, 2014 10:47am Oct 20, 2014 10:47am
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Ajentha, At the risk of sounding rude...I am not here to teach you my method....my rule set is one that has taken me many many years to come up with and I am not about to give that away. The first limit is determined manly by the signal candle...in the EUR/USD example it is the inner bar. From my entry to my first target, this signal hits approximately 76% of the time...thus the PROBABILITY of that occurring this time (assuming the trade triggers) is 76%. 2xR would be twice that distance...3xR thrice the distance....etc. I have no statistics...
Dear GSPAJON,

I am asking all my doubts, because then only I can follow your foot step, your method, concept. I already started to learn from your 1st post. Thank you for simple trading method.

That means 76% winning percentage for your trading setup...

bye
ajentha
  • #44
  • Oct 20, 2014 11:08am Oct 20, 2014 11:08am
Quoting ajentha
... That means 76% winning percentage for your trading setup...
Yes 76% of the inner bar set up reach the first Take Profit point...that is correct (again as per my record keeping)
  • #45
  • Edited 11:35am Oct 20, 2014 11:18am | Edited 11:35am
Ajentha (and anyone else who might be interested)

Learning is a very difficult process especially when there is no guide or class room agenda. Most of what I learned I learned because I continued bleeding money...I would try to save you that pain.

For me the process that has worked the best is this:

  1. Find a pattern in the market (what ever that pattern may be)
  2. Make a theory about that pattern
  3. Test your theory by back testing the market price action for at least 400 "trades"
  4. Adjust your theory with a "rule set" - a set of rules that will allow you maximize the results
  5. Back test your rule set and adjust as necessary
  6. Forward test (demo or live I don't think it makes much difference) your rule set and gather statistics
  7. If your stats show an edge (>55% winners) then utilize that edge - if not - start at #1 again.

You can easily see that this process is long and arduous but you will learn the most from this process than by just following someone else. And you will train yourself to be disciplined as you will not want to "contaminate" your data. My page can show you the value of simplicity and you can certainly follow along...but I will not be here forever, and when I am not there you will need your own method of trading to rely on...who knows it will probably be much better than this one.

  • #46
  • Oct 20, 2014 5:52pm Oct 20, 2014 5:52pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
gspajon... How do you go about establishing your directional bias? I know you don't like to make price predictions & I can understand, but on a certain level placing a trade is precisely a price prediction. So much so you're willing to back the prediction with your hard earned money. None the less I appreciate & respect your decision. In many ways its a good policy.

Do you apply any fundamental analysis or do you make your decisions purely on technicals? Just curious & hope your trades are playing out nicely.

-eggs-
  • #47
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:35pm Oct 20, 2014 6:35pm
Nice thread gspajon.
  • #48
  • Oct 20, 2014 6:54pm Oct 20, 2014 6:54pm
Quoting eggs
gspajon... How do you go about establishing your directional bias? I know you don't like to make price predictions & I can understand, but on a certain level placing a trade is precisely a price prediction. So much so you're willing to back the prediction with your hard earned money. None the less I appreciate & respect your decision. In many ways its a good policy. Do you apply any fundamental analysis or do you make your decisions purely on technicals? Just curious & hope your trades are playing out nicely. -eggs-
Another excellent question. Simply put I follow what ever the prevailing trend is on the time frame where I find the signal. I define trend in the simplest way possible. Higher Highs and Higher lows = bullish trend; Lower lows and lower highs = bearish trend.

Again the key concept (one which appears to be more illusive than I thought) is it must be obvious. If a trend isn't obvious just by looking at your chart then there probably isn't a trend to speak of. Again there are no fancy definitions or mathematical equations just good old fashion common sense.

Ranges, on the other hand get very complicated...from my point of view. I most often try to stay away from them but often find myself "stuck" in a range. This is where I started developing my TP points. I decided it was more profitable to take profit BEFORE the range began than try and hold through it.

So yes the decision is based on "technicals" but more on just common sense. No trend...no direction...no trade. The buy low sell high of ranges works out most of the time, but it must be a stable and again...obvious range.

Does that make sense?
  • #49
  • Oct 20, 2014 7:17pm Oct 20, 2014 7:17pm
  •  eggs
  • | Joined Nov 2011 | Status: Everybodys A Central Banker Here... | 819 Posts
Quoting gspajon
{quote} Does that make sense?
It makes perfect sense. Higher Highs & Higher Lows / Lower Highs & Lower Lows is the textbook classic definition of a clear trend. It's often overlooked by many.
  • #50
  • Oct 20, 2014 9:36pm Oct 20, 2014 9:36pm
Quoting gspajon
Ajentha (and anyone else who might be interested) Learning is a very difficult process especially when there is no guide or class room agenda. Most of what I learned I learned because I continued bleeding money...I would try to save you that pain. For me the process that has worked the best is this: Find a pattern in the market (what ever that pattern may be) Make a theory about that pattern Test your theory by back testing the market price action for at least 400 "trades" Adjust your theory with a "rule set" - a set of rules that will allow you...
Dear GSPAJON,

Thank you for your advise.

Any have I am willing to follow your trading simple method.

bye
ajentha
  • #51
  • Oct 21, 2014 7:17am Oct 21, 2014 7:17am
Quoting Winston Reed
Nice thread gspajon.
Thank you...I appreciate the compliment
  • #52
  • Oct 22, 2014 7:53am Oct 22, 2014 7:53am
Hello All...

Looks like the EUR/USD position triggered short a few hours ago.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Trade1-2.png Size: 18 KB
  • #53
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:00am Oct 22, 2014 8:00am
Quoting gspajon
Hello All... Looks like the EUR/USD position triggered short a few hours ago. {image}

Dear GSPAJON,

All your trade prediction are excellent and Positive only & low draw down.

bye
ajentha
  • #54
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:19am Oct 22, 2014 8:19am
Recently someone wrote me a private message asking for my definition of an "exhaustion" candle. As this person did not wish to have his views public (for obvious reasons) I thought I would answer here.

It is a legitimate question as I have mentioned it in my trades a couple of times. First off let me say, as far as I know there is no generally accepted "definition" of an exhaustion candle. for me it is more a concept than a specific pattern that requires definition or criteria. I'll explain it to you this way:

As we all know price movement is the result of order flow. Orders buying and selling. And for argument's sake we'll say we have a bullish move. This, by definition means that there are more buyers than sellers...so price continues to rise. At some point the buyers will all jump in. Either because a new round of stops have been hit or because everyone thinks the bullish move is a "sure thing". This causes a inordinately large move to happen...either 1 or a series of candle will have a larger than average range.

As soon as the buyers are all in...there's no one left to continue pushing price higher. So price stalls...it consolidates...it contracts...or it downright reverses. Again this can happen in a single candle or a series of them.

I'm sure some of you have had this experience...you see a trend...it looks strong..you enter and it IMMEDIATELY turns against you.
That is exhaustion...you were most likely one of the last people to enter. In fact many people define it that way...exhaustion is when all the retail crowd is in.

What does that look like on a chart? Many ways...some use pin bars, other use long candles that are x% greater than the average range. I look at them in retrospect. If I see a large move (they tend to stick out and be obvious) that then stops and starts to consolidate, stall or reverse...I call that move exhaustion.

I once thought it was real "sexy" to try and find these and get into a new move at the very top or bottom...it was disastrous! Both to my trading mind set and my account. I have now learned to see them for what they are...the retail crowd getting hammered. I try NOT to be among them.

So I now utilize it to recognize when a particular retrace is at or is near completion. A retrace that will have the people from the main trend drooling to get back in and rejoin. That is where my candle formations come into play. In the context of a larger trend, the retrace is those guys looking for the "sexy" trade getting screwed.

That's why I make note of if when I am looking at charts but I do not take action unless I see my set up. DISCIPLINE...that is the key concept. And again, in keeping with the theme of this thread...if I see it it MUST be obvious...or it isn't there.

I hope this helps.
  • #55
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:20am Oct 22, 2014 8:20am
Quoting ajentha
{quote} Dear GSPAJON, All your trade prediction are excellent and Positive only & low draw down. bye ajentha
So far...lets not get ahead of ourselves...none of these trade are anywhere near complete yet. They are working well so far.

Patience...
  • #56
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:42am Oct 22, 2014 8:42am
Quoting gspajon
{quote} So far...lets not get ahead of ourselves...none of these trade are anywhere near complete yet. They are working well so far. Patience...
Hello my friend. I'm still using my IB on 4hr and above. I will be following along as always. All my best to you and kudos to the new thread.

Mike
  • #57
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:47am Oct 22, 2014 8:47am
Quoting gspajon
Recently someone...
I honestly think that a person doesn't need more than this comment to be successful in trading. It's all in there.


k
  • #58
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:59am Oct 22, 2014 8:59am
Quoting calderone
{quote} Hello my friend. I'm still using my IB on 4hr and above. I will be following along as always. All my best to you and kudos to the new thread. Mike
Hey Mike...good to see you here...thank you for your kind words...I wish you all the best

Quoting kprsa
{quote} I honestly think that a person doesn't need more than this comment to be successful in trading. It's all in there. k
Thank your for you compliments...Hope all goes well with your trading
  • #59
  • Oct 22, 2014 9:17am Oct 22, 2014 9:17am
Quoting gspajon
Recently someone wrote me
Excellent thread, excellent post.
Ghost Rider - WWTBMD?
  • #60
  • Oct 22, 2014 9:33am Oct 22, 2014 9:33am
Quoting albchr
{quote} Excellent thread, excellent post.
Thank you...I appreciate your support
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