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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #49,261
  • Oct 21, 2014 8:28pm Oct 21, 2014 8:28pm
this 1 has become a tricky pair, does anyone believe that the fed are going to possibly not end QE ? if that happens im sure this will really go alot lower, or is it priced in already?

imo i do not think this will go back down past 106, (unless bad data tom morning)

with good data this should life up considerally, and leading up to the feds meetings next week it will gradually go up, and those meetings will determine a waterfall, or a nice 100 pip movement in a few hours...

i also notice that JPY data only moves when it is beneficial for that currency, when it is bad data, it doesnt move (might even go down), when it is good, USD JPY drops DOWN!

this has been a beautiful time for scalping, hope all you scalpers are pippin cuz i would be too if i wasnt holding
  • #49,262
  • Oct 21, 2014 9:13pm Oct 21, 2014 9:13pm
the 10 pips drop is due to usdx sliding, moreover, nikkei is up a lot this morning. have to wait till euro and us markets are in, we shall see.
  • #49,263
  • Oct 21, 2014 9:27pm Oct 21, 2014 9:27pm
Hi everyone,
My first post ever in this thread. Hope ya all welcome the existence of me here
My personal chart analysis on this pair:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Cloud analysis: USDJPY is in a downtrend (on H4), however, price had a major pullback and is currently in the cloud, which indicates consolidating mode. Weak downtrend.
Price action analysis:a little doji pattern (or hammer, depend on how you see them) has been formed in Asian session (which may not be so powerful). Also, i can see the lower high there as well as the long bearish candle that eased the bullish gap, which was created at the beginning of this trading week. Imo, demand for JPY is high. Intermediate-strong downtrend.
Volume analysis: There are no notable volume at the moment. However, the last 3 candles saw a strong volumes on doji pattern. Also, there were very strong bearish volume last week, which i interpret as the large sell orders were triggered when price passed the major support line. Intermediate-strong downtrend
Fundamental analysis: US economy condition is good and that is certain that it will keep improved, no doubt. However, the current announcement of FED officers are dovish and last week, strong USD was said to potentially harm US economy by FED president. Bullish in long term, Intermediate bearish medium term and bearish in short term (2-4 weeks time)
My personal opinion: The combination of analyses tells me that USD/JPY is in intermediate-strong bearish trend, that may drags price down to at least 104. I personally entered an aggressive short order at 106.35 which has a quite affordable R/R ratio
  • #49,264
  • Oct 21, 2014 9:33pm Oct 21, 2014 9:33pm
Quoting bluetoss
the 10 pips drop is due to usdx sliding, moreover, nikkei is up a lot this morning. have to wait till euro and us markets are in, we shall see.
  • #49,265
  • Oct 21, 2014 9:45pm Oct 21, 2014 9:45pm
Quoting StevenNguyen
Hi everyone, My first post ever in this thread. Hope ya all welcome the existence of me here My personal chart analysis on this pair: {image} Cloud analysis: USDJPY is in a downtrend (on H4), however, price had a major pullback and is currently in the cloud, which indicates consolidating mode. Weak downtrend. Price action analysis:a little doji pattern (or hammer, depend on how you see them) has been formed in Asian session (which may not be so powerful). Also, i can see the lower high there as well as the long bearish candle that eased the bullish...
very good analysis, although i dont recall Yellen saying the strong dollar was bad for economy, unless i missed it. We have also heard reports of fed officials saying that global economic slowdown shouldnt bear weight on current policy measures and ending QE3, Also said the market is in panic mode and overeacting, i agree. Tom morning inflation data is VERY VERY important in what happens in this meetings next week. (and whether this pair drops out of the sky like a dead bird)
  • #49,266
  • Oct 21, 2014 9:53pm Oct 21, 2014 9:53pm
Quoting Liam0530
{quote} very good analysis, although i dont recall Yellen saying the strong dollar was bad for economy, unless i missed it. We have also heard reports of fed officials saying that global economic slowdown shouldnt bear weight on current policy measures and ending QE3, Also said the market is in panic mode and overeacting, i agree. Tom morning inflation data is VERY VERY important in what happens in this meetings next week. (and whether this pair drops out of the sky like a dead bird)
Hmm yeah, it was not Yellen but from what i remember, the news was there by one of the FED member
  • #49,267
  • Oct 21, 2014 9:57pm Oct 21, 2014 9:57pm
Quoting StevenNguyen
{quote} Hmm yeah, it was not Yellen but from what i remember, the news was there by one of the FED member
yeah thats right.. good anaylsis though, and great chart
  • #49,268
  • Oct 21, 2014 9:59pm Oct 21, 2014 9:59pm
http://www.efxnews.com/story/26593/u...-goldman-sachs

i agree with this, although i strongly believe this cpi data will be key to rest of week and leading up to AND also weighing on the feds meeting.
  • #49,269
  • Oct 21, 2014 10:11pm Oct 21, 2014 10:11pm
Gidday YEN traders

I read 104

Still have longs in the system

109 would clear all off them

one short from the high.

If they want 110

then they need to turn the Titanic around

Dumb F&&&ks
  • #49,270
  • Oct 21, 2014 11:15pm Oct 21, 2014 11:15pm
thanks for your analyse, if you put in ema you will realise that it's uptrending, look at 5 and 15 min, even 4 hr overall is uptrending, we shall see later if i am right. besides 4hr chart will take too long for result to suffice.

Quoting StevenNguyen
Hi everyone, My first post ever in this thread. Hope ya all welcome the existence of me here My personal chart analysis on this pair: {image} Cloud analysis: USDJPY is in a downtrend (on H4), however, price had a major pullback and is currently in the cloud, which indicates consolidating mode. Weak downtrend. Price action analysis:a little doji pattern (or hammer, depend on how you see them) has been formed in Asian session (which may not be so powerful). Also, i can see the lower high there as well as the long bearish candle that eased the bullish...
  • #49,271
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:19am Oct 22, 2014 8:19am
Lets see the nice turn to the upside. Some crosses on hourly and 4hr charting. Daily is slowly starting to turn.


Edit: Good amount of resistance at 107.35; previous resistance as well. A clean break we could bring on the 108.xx's.
  • #49,272
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:31am Oct 22, 2014 8:31am
Sellers are in the 107.19 to 107.38 area. Stops better watchout below if it doesnt pass 107.39. Stops below 106.79 and 106.60 could get hit hard.
  • #49,273
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:39am Oct 22, 2014 8:39am
Quoting Trendzalore
Sellers are in the 107.19 to 107.38 area. Stops better watchout below if it doesnt pass 107.39. Stops below 106.79 and 106.60 could get hit hard.

I agree. A good amount of selling pressure. I "ain't" never scared.
  • #49,274
  • Oct 22, 2014 8:44am Oct 22, 2014 8:44am
Quoting Rizmeister
{quote} I agree. A good amount of selling pressure. I "ain't" never scared.
Longs better beware lol cause those stops look NICE all the way down to 106.23. With enough pressure maybe even lower.
  • #49,275
  • Oct 22, 2014 12:25pm Oct 22, 2014 12:25pm
Will history repeat itself? Look at your chart on hourly, starting from the candle on 5pm eastern 11/13/2014 to candle on 8am eastern 11/15/2014. Now loook at candle 11/20/2014 1pm eastern to now.
  • #49,276
  • Oct 22, 2014 12:57pm Oct 22, 2014 12:57pm
Quoting Trendzalore
Will history repeat itself? Look at your chart on hourly, starting from the candle on 5pm eastern 11/13/2014 to candle on 8am eastern 11/15/2014. Now loook at candle 11/20/2014 1pm eastern to now.
Errrrrmmm...
It's not November yet?
  • #49,277
  • Oct 22, 2014 1:16pm Oct 22, 2014 1:16pm
Quoting Trendzalore
Will history repeat itself? Look at your chart on hourly, starting from the candle on 5pm eastern 11/13/2014 to candle on 8am eastern 11/15/2014. Now loook at candle 11/20/2014 1pm eastern to now.
That's one hell of a crystal ball. Care to share your time machine with the rest of us?
  • #49,278
  • Oct 22, 2014 1:37pm Oct 22, 2014 1:37pm
I meant 10/13/2014 ro 10/15/2014 AND 10/20/2014 to now. LMBO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • #49,279
  • Oct 22, 2014 1:58pm Oct 22, 2014 1:58pm
whats very scary for shorts right now is on the year chart RSI is at 40. every time its been near 40 its shot back up 200+ pips

im short @107 for 1 reason and 1 reason only. 107.500 area hasnt been broken through and kept as support.
  • #49,280
  • Oct 22, 2014 2:29pm Oct 22, 2014 2:29pm
Gidday YEN

With the EUR/US taking a dump

Managed to prune the YEN tree

still a bit top heavy

107 to 109

better grow a pair

an suck it up like a real trader
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