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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #49,181
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:12pm Oct 19, 2014 7:12pm
Quoting Orly
Nikkei up 4% and virtually no reaction from UJ. Anyone else see anything unsustainable about this picture?
Maybe using other crosses.
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #49,182
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:19pm Oct 19, 2014 7:19pm
Quoting Orly
Nikkei up 4% and virtually no reaction from UJ. Anyone else see anything unsustainable about this picture?
Yes - maybe I'm being conservative, but there is no way I would be buying based on this PA (at the risk of foregoing pips).
  • #49,183
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:46pm Oct 19, 2014 7:46pm
Quoting Liam0530
............................. also imo this has to break through 107.5 to continue its way up north
Definitely. It has to break 107.5 to move higher than this level.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #49,184
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:52pm Oct 19, 2014 7:52pm
Quoting Orly
Nikkei up 4% and virtually no reaction from UJ. Anyone else see anything unsustainable about this picture?
Do you mean that we'll see JPY selling sometime this week?
A trade should be based on an assumption based on facts
  • #49,185
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:54pm Oct 19, 2014 7:54pm
The way I m reading hourly price action it looks like stops below 106.5 and 106.12 can be had. You guys buy and I will hunt stops for low risk trade back to 106
  • #49,186
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:59pm Oct 19, 2014 7:59pm
Quoting Trendzalore
The way I m reading hourly price action it looks like stops below 106.5 and 106.12 can be had. You guys buy and I will hunt stops for low risk trade back to 106
The stair stepping action almost always gives it away.

  • #49,187
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:05pm Oct 19, 2014 8:05pm
Quoting Orly
{quote} The stair stepping action almost always gives it away.
Yes. Price is right up on 4hr supply. So those stops look like they could be in danger with a down move. RR is better on sell at least until after 107.5.

Im already in and waiting for the drop.
  • #49,188
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:09pm Oct 19, 2014 8:09pm
It's time to buy!
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #49,189
  • Oct 19, 2014 8:10pm Oct 19, 2014 8:10pm
Quoting Chicky
Definitely. It has to break 107.5 to move higher than this level.
rofl
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #49,190
  • Oct 19, 2014 11:26pm Oct 19, 2014 11:26pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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got some work to do breaking through these resistance points, (it should imo) and CPI on Wed. will play good role in keeping this above 107.5 for the weeks end, or testing 105.2 again
  • #49,191
  • Oct 20, 2014 12:05am Oct 20, 2014 12:05am
Today’s Asian session has witnessed a remarkable turnaround with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index rallying 3.5% and USD/JPY leads the pack moving up to 107.39, notes BNP Paribas
"We see the mid-October collapse in US rates and the pullback in the USD as largely disconnected from the macro backdrop. The Fed is entering a blackout period ahead of the October meeting so it will be up to the US and global data to help determine whether the Fed sticks with its original taper plan," BNPP argues.
"We remain on the sidelines for the moment but a continued improvement in market sentiment would in our view make the risk-reward for long USD positions versus the EUR and JPY increasingly attractive," BNPP advises.

http://www.efxnews.com/story/26561/s...-position-bnpp

hmm..
:nerd:
  • #49,192
  • Oct 20, 2014 12:07am Oct 20, 2014 12:07am
Quoting Liam0530
Today’s Asian session has witnessed a remarkable turnaround with Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index rallying 3.5% and USD/JPY leads the pack moving up to 107.39, notes BNP Paribas "We see the mid-October collapse in US rates and the pullback in the USD as largely disconnected from the macro backdrop. The Fed is entering a blackout period ahead of the October meeting so it will be up to the US and global data to help determine whether the Fed sticks with its original taper plan," BNPP argues. "We remain on the sidelines for the moment but a continued improvement...
Ok, if BNPP advises this, then short is probably not too wrong.
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #49,193
  • Oct 20, 2014 12:50am Oct 20, 2014 12:50am
back to 110 soon again. Before they were worried about prices of the YEN at 110 as Jqpan Imports a lot of oil but now that oil tanker 20% the YEN has further room to drop.
  • #49,194
  • Oct 20, 2014 12:53am Oct 20, 2014 12:53am
Sell order hit @107.18 last night
  • #49,195
  • Oct 20, 2014 1:09am Oct 20, 2014 1:09am
Quoting xy76
Sell order hit @107.18 last night


Keep selling it until stocks have stopped plunging, which may not be for a while yet.
  • #49,196
  • Edited 1:53am Oct 20, 2014 1:40am | Edited 1:53am
Quoting Orly
{quote} Keep selling it until stocks have stopped plunging, which may not be for a while yet.
I tend to agree (but will sit on the sidelines until a little more clarity materializes). I become most skeptical when everybody becomes overconfident that a pair will absolutely continue in a certain direction. To me, further bullishness is not a given.
  • #49,197
  • Oct 20, 2014 1:45am Oct 20, 2014 1:45am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} I tend to agree (but will sit on the sidelines until a little more clarity materializes). I become most skeptical when everybody becomes overconfident that a pair will absolutely continue in a certain direction.
Oh, I agree.
107 hasn't been completely captured yet and the opening gap hasn't been closed. I'm pretty sure that will happen.
The weekly/monthly candles are quite bearish and you can couple that with the talk out of Japan that no one really wants to see the yen at 110 or above any more. I think they will shoot for a range between 99 and 104 to stay lukewarm on yen.
QQE is over.

  • #49,198
  • Oct 20, 2014 1:54am Oct 20, 2014 1:54am
Buongiorno per tutti / Hello everybody
I think it will grow up to 107.35 (resistance of 14 oct) and if it will go higher - to 108. So "carpe diem" and sell-sell-sell
  • #49,199
  • Oct 20, 2014 1:57am Oct 20, 2014 1:57am
Quoting Orly
{quote} Oh, I agree. 107 hasn't been completely captured yet and the opening gap hasn't been closed. I'm pretty sure that will happen. The weekly/monthly candles are quite bearish and you can couple that with the talk out of Japan that no one really wants to see the yen at 110 or above any more. I think they will shoot for a range between 99 and 104 to stay lukewarm on yen. QQE is over.
Same. But, it may get a little 'violent' if many are overly committed to further bullishness.


Mind you, if price 'deserves' to move up to 110+ then fine. But, IMO, it currently doesn't.
  • #49,200
  • Oct 20, 2014 2:00am Oct 20, 2014 2:00am
Quoting Didgeridoo
{quote} Same. But, it may get a little 'violent' if many are overly committed to further bullishness. Mind you, if price 'deserves' to move up to 110+ then fine. But, IMO, it currently doesn't.
You're right about that, too.
A lot of big money very interested in pushing this thing where they want it to go. Clash of the Titans.

Got to be quick, nimble and confident.

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