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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #49,141
  • Edited 8:32am Oct 17, 2014 8:17am | Edited 8:32am
Update from my recent setup:


Quoting amikaking
{quote} You're welcomed Dr.Blue. I closed out my buy 0.3 lot AUD/JPY trade with 100 pips profit from 92.50 and i expect it could go up higher to test the 50% fibs of the recent fall. Today Canada will release string of important news at GMT 12.30 but USDCAD is ranging so it's better to buy CAD/JPY as Yen has weakened yesterday (D1 bullish pinbar) not only against CAD but also other crosses except USD. CAD/JPY manage to close itself above 94.00 level and trade above it now so i expect the uptrend correction is over now. So for today my signal will...
I open a buy CAD/JPY @ 94.70.

Canadian inflation data did rose as expected, with the risk event this Friday finally over, it is now all about technical analysis.
Although it did not touch my buy limit at 94.00, but it did break up yesterday's pinbar high at 94.80, together with confluence from a rising trendline and Dec 2013 - July 2014 trendline breakout (now turning into support), current price action suggests that a bounce has completed.

Targeting 50% - 61.8% of the most recent fall.

Good luck and have a happy weekend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #49,142
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:18am Oct 17, 2014 8:18am
Quoting Fx_Anil
100-EMA and descending trend-line near 106.70 becomes important for the USDJPY. However, IMHO, it will reverse to 105.70 by the end of the day. {image}
how accurate will it be for this forecast ?
  • #49,143
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:21am Oct 17, 2014 8:21am
Why are you talking about Canadian dollar here?
  • #49,144
  • Oct 17, 2014 8:28am Oct 17, 2014 8:28am
Quoting Orly
Why are you talking about Canadian dollar here?
USD/JPY and CAD/JPY has similar correlation (both belong to the same JPY cross) but the most visible and higher probability setup belongs to the later as USD has been weaken significantly this Wednesday due to disappointed Retail Sales data so rather than buying USD/JPY (it is a buy now anyway) it is wiser to buy CAD strength vs the Yen.

By the way, it is not a pure Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), it is CAD/JPY (Canadian Dollar vs Japanese Yen).
  • #49,145
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:13am Oct 17, 2014 11:13am
I totally disagree. the yen is not a long position right now. the us dollar index is falling and 1 day of upside in the us stock market doesnt entail a buy.
  • #49,146
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:17am Oct 17, 2014 11:17am
RSI is at 44 on 3 year chart of usd/jpy. that's a bit scary for shorters right now
  • #49,147
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:23am Oct 17, 2014 11:23am
Amikaking, we all appreciate your contribution here, but don't you think that cad/jpy deserves its own thread?
  • #49,148
  • Oct 17, 2014 11:37am Oct 17, 2014 11:37am
A good bunch of positive data for USD and UJ is not even close to the price from before this Wednesday news release. It is still heading south, IMHO.
  • #49,149
  • Oct 17, 2014 1:24pm Oct 17, 2014 1:24pm
Quoting Michael.MK
I will tray small long on usd/cad 1,1228
out 1,1274
Sorry I now this forum is not for usd/cad it was last time
  • #49,150
  • Oct 17, 2014 2:17pm Oct 17, 2014 2:17pm
Have a good weekend for everyone
  • #49,151
  • Oct 17, 2014 2:32pm Oct 17, 2014 2:32pm
Closing out a sustainable move, if you asked me. :/

Sell the heck out of this thing first thing next week.

  • #49,152
  • Oct 17, 2014 2:43pm Oct 17, 2014 2:43pm
Quoting Orly
Closing out a sustainable move, if you asked me. :/ Sell the heck out of this thing first thing next week.
10-4 already started shorting
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #49,153
  • Edited 10:52pm Oct 17, 2014 7:44pm | Edited 10:52pm
Quoting yeniful
I totally disagree. the yen is not a long position right now. the us dollar index is falling and 1 day of upside in the us stock market doesnt entail a buy.
There was small bounce in the Daily chart for most JPY crosses , the pinbar itself is a good sign of Yen strength exhaustion so do expect a comimg upside correction.

The rally may be short-lived, it all depends on the Yen strength if you ask me.

The US Dollar fall means bulls in the USD/JPY is weakening, but at the same time bulls in the USD/CAD is also weakening.

So USD/JPY x USD/CAD, by taking out USD from this equation we get CAD/JPY, therefore US Index should not have any effect on this pair. Combining with Friday's positive Canadian inflation data, buying this pinbar definitely has higher success rate.

D1 CAD/JPY calls for an upside bounce.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: image.jpg Size: 153 KB


W1 CAD/JPY we have an ugly pinbar with large bearish body, so any upside rally shall be stalled when price reach the 50% fibo zone.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Photo Oct 18, 8 53 51 AM.png Size: 71 KB
  • #49,154
  • Oct 18, 2014 3:10pm Oct 18, 2014 3:10pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy1.jpg Size: 197 KB


this is something i`m thinking is going to happen...
  • #49,155
  • Oct 19, 2014 12:21am Oct 19, 2014 12:21am
Quoting amikaking
{quote} Bro another nice "pinbar" is taking shape in D1 AUD/JPY Still hesitating not to buy? {image}
I prefer to use factual data rather than pin bars and divergence. I have presented the facts a few posts ago and, thus far it moves in accordance with those facts. For what it's worth, I do not trade this pair and have not done so for over five years but monitor it and analysis it as a cross reference for another pair.

​By the way, unless things have changed, cadjpy has traditionally not always moved in accordance with other Yen pairs and can be assumed to be an unreliable gauge.
  • #49,156
  • Oct 19, 2014 7:47am Oct 19, 2014 7:47am
we arenot yet out of de woods . price is still bearish
  • #49,157
  • Oct 19, 2014 9:31am Oct 19, 2014 9:31am
Quoting tsoo
{image} this is something i`m thinking is going to happen...
USDJPY M30-H4
I am agree. The pair remains bearish on H4 timeframe. But maybe raise a little more before returning.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY M30.PNG Size: 89 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY h4.PNG Size: 87 KB
Donde hay Patron no manda Marinero
  • #49,158
  • Oct 19, 2014 12:55pm Oct 19, 2014 12:55pm
Strongest currency pair atm, just give it some time it will continue higher.
  • #49,159
  • Oct 19, 2014 1:12pm Oct 19, 2014 1:12pm
why doesnt this forum have live chat so traders can communicate in live time?
Does anyone want to have a group so we can live chat when markets are open?
  • #49,160
  • Oct 19, 2014 1:17pm Oct 19, 2014 1:17pm
Ye, like USD/JPY live room, this would be awesome!!
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