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  • #6,421
  • Oct 15, 2014 9:09am Oct 15, 2014 9:09am
Good pin bars closing on the Euro, Pound , Kiwii and Aussie for shorts , maybe a trap for shorts on the dollar
  • #6,422
  • Oct 15, 2014 9:52am Oct 15, 2014 9:52am
oh snap, strong
  • #6,423
  • Oct 16, 2014 1:49am Oct 16, 2014 1:49am
Quoting sunshine
Hi H4, Excellent, u don't need my guidance, u obviously know what to do...Well Done.
Hi sunshine, your comments on the latest drop and still a buy in your opinion?
  • #6,424
  • Oct 16, 2014 1:54am Oct 16, 2014 1:54am
Quoting duderoo1
{quote} Hi sunshine, your comments on the latest drop and still a buy in your opinion?
well i think it still should go up...
what you say sunshine ... ?
  • #6,425
  • Oct 16, 2014 5:23am Oct 16, 2014 5:23am
Quoting duderoo1
{quote} Hi sunshine, your comments on the latest drop and still a buy in your opinion?
Hi duderoo,

yes nothing has changed for me to change my bias from long, infact, currently one can look to buy or add more to long positions.

since i don't know your intended holding period, whether for a few minutes or a few hours or a few days or weeks, i suggest::

  1. you glance, just glance not analyse, at the Weekly to see if the trade you intend to take is in alignment with that general or overall price direction, the direction must be clear should u find yourself starting to reason with yourself whether its Up or sideways, abstain from trades in that pair or instrument. so it the general price direction is up than proceed as follows to further put the odds in your favour,
  2. switch to Daily Chart, check to see if the last candle that completed is Up or green. if yes, u may buy if no, then no trades today in that pair, ok.
  3. if u going to do this strategy for the 1st time than reduce your normal trade size considerably in order to avoid stress and panic when price moves against your entry because if u have a trade size that bothers you wen u are in gains/profit, imagine how it will terrorise u should it move against your entry.
  4. i can still elaborate further but this is sufficient to see you home clear and dry.
  5. LASTLY, after entry, close your trading station and step away...go fix the leaking tap or see to the missus's needs...take tour mind of your trades...Only open your trading station again the next day.

  • #6,426
  • Oct 16, 2014 5:26am Oct 16, 2014 5:26am
Quoting sunshine
{quote} Hi duderoo, yes nothing has changed for me to change my bias from long, infact, currently one can look to buy or add more to long positions. since i don't know your intended holding period, whether for a few minutes or a few hours or a few days or weeks, i suggest:: you glance, just glance not analyse, at the Weekly to see if the trade you intend to take is in alignment with that general or overall price direction, the direction must be clear should u find yourself starting to reason with yourself whether its Up or sideways, abstain from...
Thanks for the valuable comments, appreciate it!
  • #6,427
  • Oct 16, 2014 5:30am Oct 16, 2014 5:30am
u welcome duderoo
  • #6,428
  • Oct 16, 2014 5:42am Oct 16, 2014 5:42am
Quoting sunshine
u welcome duderoo
hi sunshine... just need your view abt these upcoming news in next couple of hr's ...
does these news gonna make big effect in market or CAD ?
your view please ....
cheers . .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: news.JPG Size: 28 KB
  • #6,429
  • Oct 16, 2014 5:46am Oct 16, 2014 5:46am
Quoting H4-forex
{quote} hi sunshine... just need your view abt these upcoming news in next couple of hr's ... does these news gonna make big effect in market or CAD ? your view please .... cheers . . {image}
If CAD drops perhaps a buying opportunity?
  • #6,430
  • Oct 16, 2014 5:49am Oct 16, 2014 5:49am
hi H4,
i apologise, i really have no idea.

i just can't be bothered by news...because i found that price returns to the general direction of the longer term trend in the vast majority of cases.
i try not to enter trades in a specific pair before a news release that may have a high impact,
sorry cant help u
  • #6,431
  • Oct 16, 2014 6:07am Oct 16, 2014 6:07am
Quoting sunshine
hi H4, i apologise, i really have no idea. i just can't be bothered by news...because i found that price returns to the general direction of the longer term trend in the vast majority of cases. i try not to enter trades in a specific pair before a news release that may have a high impact, sorry cant help u
no prob sir...
but i wanted USA/CAD should go up , and GBP/USD should go down ...
  • #6,432
  • Oct 16, 2014 6:44am Oct 16, 2014 6:44am
Quoting H4-forex
{quote} no prob sir... but i wanted USA/CAD should go up , and GBP/USD should go down ...

Don't buy/sell before the news. Any pair about the USD is a huge risk right now, and the risks aren't worth the potential gains. We have a bullish sentiment for USD/CAD (obviously), so if both the main news for USD & CAD favor going long on USDCAD, do it. Fundamentals say that the CAD is destined to keep falling agaisnt the dollar (we've got an all clear signal until around 1.17)

If the CAD manufacturing sales is good but the US industrial production & unemployment are also above expectations, I'd still consider going long on the USD/CAD

If the signals are mixed, stay out and see what market movers think about the new revelations.

IF the USD/CAD is extremely oversold, BUY it. Even if the price tanks a couple dozen pips after you buy it, it's still good. Unless we have a serious demonstration of a reversal in the trends, an extremely oversold position in a bullish market tends to recover beyond the initial extremely oversold point (so you can net several dozen pips if your position is in favor of the dominant sentiment). It's technically risky, but it works a significant majority of the time under the right circumstances (like this one). For example, right after the USD news from yesterday caused the USd/CAD to fall, I bought at 1.1249 and sold at 1.1320, giving a net profit of 71 pips within a few hours. Then I kept buying the dips at around 1.12490, and sold them whenever the RSI moved a little too high for my comfort.

IF the USd/CAD is extremely overbought, you CAN consider a somewhat risky short by selling-but this'll only net you 10 or 20 pips. Still, it's somewhat reliable as a scalping method, but more risky than the previous one. For example, I recently closed my long at 1.13531, and shorted the pair at that price. Currently, it stands at 1.13276. The problem with this method is that it's very difficult to discern even the GENERAL range at which the currency pair will stop falling and go back up. I'm considering taking profit within the next 10 pips or so, depending on how the market moves. All eyes on the chart right now.

Conclusion: Buy the dips/corrections, and keep TP at extremely oversold levels.
  • #6,433
  • Oct 16, 2014 6:48am Oct 16, 2014 6:48am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Don't buy/sell before the news. Any pair about the USD is a huge risk right now, and the risks aren't worth the potential gains. We have a bullish sentiment for USD/CAD (obviously), so if both the main news for USD & CAD favor going long on USDCAD, do it. Fundamentals say that the CAD is destined to keep falling agaisnt the dollar (we've got an all clear signal until around 1.17) If the CAD manufacturing sales is good but the US industrial production & unemployment are also above expectations, I'd still consider going long on the USD/CAD...
Interesting comments. Where do you see the 1.17 TP level?
  • #6,434
  • Oct 16, 2014 6:53am Oct 16, 2014 6:53am
Quoting Vermillion
{quote} Don't buy/sell before the news. Any pair about the USD is a huge risk right now, and the risks aren't worth the potential gains. We have a bullish sentiment for USD/CAD (obviously), so if both the main news for USD & CAD favor going long on USDCAD, do it. Fundamentals say that the CAD is destined to keep falling agaisnt the dollar (we've got an all clear signal until around 1.17) If the CAD manufacturing sales is good but the US industrial production & unemployment are also above expectations, I'd still consider going long on the USD/CAD...

thx Vermillion,
good review .... hope for the best ....
thanks
  • #6,435
  • Oct 16, 2014 7:16am Oct 16, 2014 7:16am
As the Canadian Manufacturing Sales m/m are just round the corner, one should take time before generating position, other wise the chart support buying range.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,436
  • Oct 16, 2014 7:21am Oct 16, 2014 7:21am
The great thing about USDCAD right now is, it is a bit overbought and you can also get a + swap for shorting so today we push up I will definitely be shorting more, made another short today already took money out. However on the long term 3+ months this will likely continue to fresh highs given the current market conditions.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #6,437
  • Oct 16, 2014 7:46am Oct 16, 2014 7:46am
Quoting duderoo1
{quote} Interesting comments. Where do you see the 1.17 TP level?
We've crossed the major resistance established earlier this year (around late February). The only remaining major resistance is back in 2009 levels, which is around 1.6-1.7 (depending on which form of stochastics you use).

IT won't be a straight beeline increase towards that mark, but mid term expectations (around 2~3 months) are looking forward to that mark. When it does, however, we might have a bearish ABCD pattern formed, so don't be surprised to see some serious correction in the months to come.
  • #6,438
  • Oct 16, 2014 10:12am Oct 16, 2014 10:12am
Guys, I see PinBar on W1, 2 pinbars on D1 and, strong engulf on H4, H1. Also, good US data which made usd/cad 50pips lower (strange). So, what I see for now, direction is down, strong down. Also, breakout level was tested twice. It seems MM are in play.
If we decline last H4 engulf bar, I restart my analysis.
Do u agree ?
  • #6,439
  • Oct 16, 2014 10:51am Oct 16, 2014 10:51am
Quoting pthread
Guys, I see PinBar on W1, 2 pinbars on D1 and, strong engulf on H4, H1. Also, good US data which made usd/cad 50pips lower (strange). So, what I see for now, direction is down, strong down. Also, breakout level was tested twice. It seems MM are in play. If we decline last H4 engulf bar, I restart my analysis. Do u agree ?
I tentatively agree. I didn't expect it to fall so quickly, but the continued rate of decline despite favorable news....and there's the expected correction from the double top. I might cancel my scalping longs, but threre's one thing that gets me: when will this decline stop?

We have a significant buying support around 1.11, but I wonder: will the 1.12 line be penetrated from this decline? Will we even stay below 1.125?

And I'm not referring to mid/long term corrections. I'm talking about intraday prices: will it stay below 1.125? 1.2? OR will we have a climb once more?

Still waiting to catch longs within the next day or two. We've had four consecutive major news in favor of the USD/CAD, after all.
  • #6,440
  • Oct 16, 2014 1:23pm Oct 16, 2014 1:23pm
For me, old demand range works as a supply now (green range: 1250-1276).
This is my safe-zone. We will see.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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