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EURUSD

  • #929,281
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:42pm Oct 13, 2014 4:42pm
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those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #929,282
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:45pm Oct 13, 2014 4:45pm
@Pip Warrior, well, usually, it is because those traders took positions against the breakout. Then, as a self-therapy, they post cheers for their decision

My argument against this breakout - it's not USD weakness since all other majors stayed down.
There are no good reasons for EUR strength either.
Unless 1.2773 (weekly R1 is breached on at least 1-hr scale) I won't expect this breakout to be sustained
"Luxury is one of the basic needs", (c), Don Corleone
  • #929,283
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:46pm Oct 13, 2014 4:46pm
Quoting Pip_Warrior
{quote} How do you know it's a fake?
I would be a rich man if I new for sure how to read those lol! But I can tell you why I think its a fake.

Very fast move up that broke 2 highs but fell short of the highest high which actually is right at demand. It touched it and I was expecting it to get rejected right about where it did. Also there is at least for now divergence on OBV 15 minute (Which seems to be a driver of price in my observations). Volume is definitely not following on 4 hour OBV either. Just doesn't look like real lasting energy behind the move.

The mental side says that longs were ready to break those 2 hourly peaks not realizing the bigger peak just behind it that was supply. Could be a trap for longs to clean them out..........go down.......trap shorts and move right back up.

I could be totally wrong but that's how I see it.
  • #929,284
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:50pm Oct 13, 2014 4:50pm
Quoting Firstboss
@Pip Warrior, well, usually, it is because those traders took positions against the breakout. Then, as a self-therapy, they post cheers for their decision My argument against this breakout - it's not USD weakness since all other majors stayed down. There are no good reasons for EUR strength either. Unless 1.2773 (weekly R1 is breached on at least 1-hr scale) I won't expect this breakout to be sustained
@Firstboss Thanks for the info! I'm always on a learning quest! Good luck in your trading
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #929,285
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:55pm Oct 13, 2014 4:55pm
Quoting Trendzalore
{quote} I would be a rich man if I new for sure how to read those lol! But I can tell you why I think its a fake. Very fast move up that broke 2 highs but fell short of the highest high which actually is right at demand. It touched it and I was expecting it to get rejected right about where it did. Also there is at least for now divergence on OBV 15 minute (Which seems to be a driver of price in my observations). Volume is definitely not following on 4 hour OBV either. Just doesn't look like real lasting energy behind the move. The mental side says...
@Trendzalore Thank you for the info. Where is the "Highest High" you are referring too? My problem is that I can't see what looks like "real lasting energy behind a move". Not sure how to get there, hence the questions.
Do what you are afraid to do -Emerson
  • #929,286
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:57pm Oct 13, 2014 4:57pm
Quoting Firstboss
It looks to me like a false breakout on low volume between the trading session. Especially because only EUR and JPY went up, while all other majors including GBP are dormant
It looks very very bullish to me.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #929,287
  • Edited Oct 14, 2014 2:36am Oct 13, 2014 4:57pm | Edited Oct 14, 2014 2:36am
-3739 closes would help to start off
edit typo. change to 2739
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #929,288
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:59pm Oct 13, 2014 4:59pm
tornado weather here atm.. i may be down a few days.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #929,289
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:01pm Oct 13, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
tornado weather here atm.. i may be down a few days.
Where? South East?
  • #929,290
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:01pm Oct 13, 2014 5:01pm
Quoting gatorinla
-3739 closes would help to start off
just above close
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #929,291
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:02pm Oct 13, 2014 5:02pm
Quoting Pip_Warrior
{quote} @Trendzalore Thank you for the info. Where is the "Highest High" you are referring too? My problem is that I can't see what looks like "real lasting energy behind a move". Not sure how to get there, hence the questions.
I have been burned many times on moves like these. I guess part of it is experience. Look on your hourly chart. Before this big move there were 2 peaks nearby. Also a third a little farther to left. I assume short stops where placed above all these which drove price so fast, along with whatever news made the move. Look to the highest high 1.2790 area and price was rejected there in the past. Since price moved back to it freshly and fast then a good probability sellers would be there. OBV is an indicator I use loosely to gauge the validity of a move.
  • #929,292
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:02pm Oct 13, 2014 5:02pm
Quoting P.technique
{quote} Where? South East?
mid South
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #929,293
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:05pm Oct 13, 2014 5:05pm
141008_H4
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141013_H4
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not fully convinced yet as H4 was sideways last week but gain daily RSI is in support of a cautious bullish outlook over next few days.
next zone around 1.283 -286 and a bit further up 1.298
  • #929,294
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:07pm Oct 13, 2014 5:07pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} mid South
Shit, hope you are well prepared.
  • #929,295
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:09pm Oct 13, 2014 5:09pm
Quoting P.technique
{quote} Shit, hope you are well prepared.
3 cases of tp
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #929,296
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:31pm Oct 13, 2014 5:31pm
The USD has as major week with a lot of big news event...Im guessing this correction should be over and eur/usd should head south early next week or late this week.
  • #929,297
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:34pm Oct 13, 2014 5:34pm
EURUSD slowly grinding higher... 2 things to remember
EURUSD needs to stay above the 1x1 angle
EURUSD needs to stay above 1.2697 for this pivot swing low is believable.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd 10-13-14.png Size: 198 KB
"W. D. Gann said that time is the most important factor among all things."
  • #929,298
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:37pm Oct 13, 2014 5:37pm
long looking for 1.2830
focus while relaxed to see better
  • #929,299
  • Oct 13, 2014 5:43pm Oct 13, 2014 5:43pm
Is this gonna go down to 1.274 maybe and then hit back up over night to 1.28? Also tommorrow's ZEW should push euro down again right?
  • #929,300
  • Oct 13, 2014 6:11pm Oct 13, 2014 6:11pm
Quoting Firstboss
@Pip Warrior, well, usually, it is because those traders took positions against the breakout. Then, as a self-therapy, they post cheers for their decision My argument against this breakout - it's not USD weakness since all other majors stayed down. There are no good reasons for EUR strength either. Unless 1.2773 (weekly R1 is breached on at least 1-hr scale) I won't expect this breakout to be sustained
inverted Hammer on the Weekly is this a valid reason?
Thanks
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