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Counter-trend trading

  • #141
  • Oct 13, 2014 12:28pm Oct 13, 2014 12:28pm
Quoting moneyflow21
{quote} Remember... "Look left, structure leaves clues!" - Quote by Harmonic Trader Jason Stapleton
I like your spirit. You are on the right track, BUT

I really don't like this quote for different reasons.

Price doesnt care about a previous top or s/r levels to be honest.

Price is nothing, find out what matters.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #142
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:30pm Oct 13, 2014 1:30pm
Quoting Datu
{quote} I love this because it truly is someone's mindset that determines outcome. It's very motivating. I have a question about these market inefficiencies. Is this related to auction market principles where price gets out of value or balance for a given timeframe? I'm not executing these yet but am glad to be out of the technical analysis rites of passage that every trader goes through. Thanks.
I actually have not read up on auction market principles, so I don't know the intricacies wheather that's a yes or no.

I'll google it later.
  • #143
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:45pm Oct 13, 2014 1:45pm
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} I shouldn't really expect you to understand what I'm talking about because you go after "common knowledge", which is easy to find/access (no offence). What I have is not common and I learnt the hard way. Do you know what a market inefficiency is? Here is a simple analogy: A big retail store has mispriced a product by 25%, a few customers have taken advantage of this mispricing and profit from it. The store soon makes a correction and restores the market value of the product. The customers that now purchase this product are late to the party...
And to expound upon what Madmoney said with his great analogy of discounts and sales at a retail store...

I believe that this "discounting" process is what we see on the charts during "pullbacks" and "retracements".

This I believe, is why master traders love using the Fibonacci Retracement and Expansion tools so much. For example, when price does a 38.2% "retracement" that is the same thing as the big market makers saying to us:

"Okay, here you go guys, for those of you who were late getting in on this 'trend', we're giving you all a second chance to get in now and by the way -- we're also giving you a 38.2% "discount" on the price so now you can enter our trend with us at a much better rate until we hit our next S&R target level!"
It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #144
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:46pm Oct 13, 2014 1:46pm
Quoting Ullen
{quote} I like your spirit. You are on the right track, BUT I really don't like this quote for different reasons. Price doesnt care about a previous top or s/r levels to be honest. Price is nothing, find out what matters.
Yes you are right about that. Price does what it does so we cannot always depend on historical levels
It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #145
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:51pm Oct 13, 2014 1:51pm
Quoting dennis4u15
You are right @Madmoney, The best way is to piggyback the big players...don't worry brother u dont have to give away ur secret...u worked hard for it and u should reap the rewards. Everyone should put in the hard yards to be successful. Regards
Preach!

It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #146
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:53pm Oct 13, 2014 1:53pm
Quoting moneyflow21
{quote} And to expound upon what Madmoney said with his great analogy of discounts and sales at a retail store... I believe that this "discounting" process is what we see on the charts during "pullbacks" and "retracements". This I believe, is why master traders love using the Fibonacci Retracement and Expansion tools so much. For example, when price does a 38.2% "retracement" that is the same thing as the big market makers saying to us: "Okay, here you go guys, for those of you who were late getting in on this 'trend', we're giving you all a second...
Thats very good! In fact since the big boys want you in to help push the trend along so they can get a better price to off load their stuff you look for something like this discount event and from there you can...
I want more brain power!
  • #147
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:57pm Oct 13, 2014 1:57pm
Quoting Ullen
USD/JPY is very fake at the moment. Benefit from it!
Yeah look @ the Currency Strength Meter and you can see they both currently have about the same power.

This is on the Weekly chart though.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDJPY Strength_Weakness 1.png Size: 178 KB


Right now the two best trades would be to sell the GBP/AUD and GBP/NZD if there is still enough volume and momentum to keep pushing those pairs or if they have not already reached their ADR!

It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #148
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:04pm Oct 13, 2014 2:04pm
Quoting irfan.zee01
IMHO, there is no trend, only sentiment, either bullish or bearish.... The trader alone make the trend... Subscribed
Preach!

It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #149
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:15pm Oct 13, 2014 2:15pm
Quoting moneyflow21
{quote} we're also giving you a 38.2% "discount" on the price so now you can enter our trend with us at a much better rate until we hit our next S&R target level!"
It has nothing to do with S/R levels.

This doesnt exist
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #150
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:20pm Oct 13, 2014 2:20pm
Quoting Ullen
{quote} It has nothing to do with S/R levels. This doesnt exist
Er i think that is his point mate. In others words, he is trying to express what the big boys want us to think. That is their way of tricking us so to speak
I want more brain power!
  • #151
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:25pm Oct 13, 2014 2:25pm
HAHA, no S & R levels? lol....
  • #152
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:30pm Oct 13, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} Er i think that is his point mate. In others words, he is trying to express what the big boys want us to think. That is their way of tricking us so to speak
Okay, if that's the case then my bad
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #153
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:32pm Oct 13, 2014 2:32pm
Quoting Baillie
HAHA, no S & R levels? lol....
Believe it or not.

Price has these levels, but price isnt at these levels in reality.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #154
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:33pm Oct 13, 2014 2:33pm
Quoting Ullen
{quote} It has nothing to do with S/R levels. This doesnt exist
You're right and I do understand that it's really about price trying to reach a balanced state of equilibrium of the instruments' market value...

In fact, price MUST always get back to a balanced state of equilibrium like between two currencies of a currency pair.

That concept of price equilibrium is similar to what Bill Wolfe talks about with his Wolfe Wave harmonic breakout pattern even though I have yet to take his official courses.

I think what I was really trying to get across is that those so-called areas that most refer to as "Support & Resistance" do have some psychological impact on the markets (especially to retail traders) most of the time but not always, and those areas do get hit multiple times.

Those are just areas where momentum or "price velocity" is likely to decelerate or slowdown.
It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #155
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:40pm Oct 13, 2014 2:40pm
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} Thats very good! In fact since the big boys want you in to help push the trend along so they can get a better price to off load their stuff you look for something like this discount event and from there you can...
Exactly!
It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #156
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:57pm Oct 13, 2014 2:57pm
Quoting Ullen
USD/JPY is very fake at the moment. Benefit from it!
Okay, now the Yen is starting to strengthen a little...

Check out the strength meter on my Pound/Kiwi Weekly chart in cTrader.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBP_Kiwi Strength_Weakness 1.png Size: 171 KB


Possible Yen sell setups could be forming on the following pairs:

  1. GBP/JPY = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts
  2. USD/JPY = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts
  3. CAD/JPY = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts

Other great opportunities at the current moment:

GBP/NZD = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts
GBP/AUD = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts
NZD/CAD = Look for Buy Entries on lower time frame charts
AUD/CAD = Look for Buy Entries on lower time frame charts
EUR/GBP = Look for Buy Entries on lower time frame charts

Oh no, now everybody's going to be asking me for trade signals...LOL!

It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
  • #157
  • Oct 13, 2014 3:02pm Oct 13, 2014 3:02pm
Hello guys. I have been reading this thread since its inception and I too am not bothered with the provocative header, even too easy to grab for those who want to listen, I would say. If I can share my 2c, I've always been open minded toward new horizons, especially when people prove their statements with facts, like both Ullen and Madmind have done so far. Hats off to them. I just don't understand all the skeptical people who keep laughing at what they say. I wish they could give them a break and instead try and understand what their message is. As for me, I swear I've been trying hard and uselessly to look at charts from different points of view, but I gather that the principles we've learnt on our own or have been taught so far as traders have become a big barrier to understand what Ullen is preaching. Sentences such "Price doesnt care about a previous top or s/r levels to be honest. Price is nothing, find out what matters." and "It has nothing to do with S/R levels. This doesnt exist" leave me utterly powerless, as, with all my background, I don't know where else to look at. If you could shed a little hint to at least indicate where to start the search, that could probably be a promising starting point... Meanwhile I will follow the thread with great attention, hoping the misbelievers will not get in the way too much and too often.
  • #158
  • Oct 13, 2014 3:13pm Oct 13, 2014 3:13pm
Quoting moneyflow21
{quote} Okay, now the Yen is starting to strengthen a little... Check out the strength meter on my Pound/Kiwi Weekly chart in cTrader. {image} Possible Yen sell setups could be forming on the following pairs: GBP/JPY = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts USD/JPY = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts CAD/JPY = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts Other great opportunities at the current moment: GBP/NZD = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts GBP/AUD = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts...
Be careful buddy.

It's not that simple.

MM
  • #159
  • Oct 13, 2014 3:17pm Oct 13, 2014 3:17pm
Quoting moneyflow21
{quote} Okay, now the Yen is starting to strengthen a little... Check out the strength meter on my Pound/Kiwi Weekly chart in cTrader. {image} Possible Yen sell setups could be forming on the following pairs: GBP/JPY = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts USD/JPY = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts CAD/JPY = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts Other great opportunities at the current moment: GBP/NZD = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts GBP/AUD = Look for Sell Entries on lower time frame charts...
This has nothing to do with this thread, and the signals are wrong in my opinion.

Glad you are contributing, but slow down a bit.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #160
  • Edited 3:34pm Oct 13, 2014 3:18pm | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} Be careful buddy. It's not that simple. MM
Yeah I know.

Strength meters are just tools that help me quickly scan for possible pairs to trade but other things must still be taken into consideration before pulling the trigger.
It's time we stop entertaining ourselves and start realizing ourselves!
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