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Counter-trend trading

  • #101
  • Oct 13, 2014 1:58am Oct 13, 2014 1:58am
Quoting dennis4u15
Good Trading style@Madmoney... Whether its trend trading or not...if it makes positive pips its good...im pretty sure u must have worked really hard to understand the price action...I have been trying for a while without much success. From what I see on ur charts u tend to know where price will head in the near future and ur entries are very good. It seems u do use support and resistance and maybe a bit of candle formation..will be waiting for ur posts so that we can also get on the right side of the market. Regards
Quoting bradu
{quote} thanks i saw you put your TE...great job. if you are willing to share any wisdom you manage to grasp from his teaching it would be great - that analogy with mispricing was very good thanks in advance

To be honest, I don't hate trends or anything, it's just that I pay no attention to trends, news, bank holidays, support and resistance or anything like that.

No matter how random the market seems, it has a structure which it has to obey to. I am merely piggybacking off of the big players.

For something to be percieved as random, means that you simply don't have enough data to scope out any patterns to increase probability, that's all.

I can not give away my trade secret, as that would get me into some trouble. I truly learnt the hard way, it wasn't easy.

People can doubt making 1%-100% a day, your only limited by what you think.

MM
  • #102
  • Oct 13, 2014 2:28am Oct 13, 2014 2:28am
You are right @Madmoney,

The best way is to piggyback the big players...don't worry brother u dont have to give away ur secret...u worked hard for it and u should reap the rewards. Everyone should put in the hard yards to be successful.

Regards
  • #103
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:07am Oct 13, 2014 4:07am
Goodmorning everyone!

The price movement at the open last night was FAKE, and is being corrected at the moment.

This is very easy to benefit from, you just need a way to spot what Madmoney is talking about, market inefficiencies

If you want to succeed, you just need to go on. Dig bellow the surface and you will find answers.

Ullen
Attached Image
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #104
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:16am Oct 13, 2014 4:16am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
I am still developing my ideas but what I can say is that the price that we see is often how the big players want us to see it.
They want us to believe in and blindly follow trends in the belief that they will keep going.

Maybe it is a bit extreme to say the Trend is our Enemy....as there are times when trending works.

There are many threads here that attempt to get under the hood of price and find out what is really going on. Some use tick volume (even though there is no centralised exchange). Others use Orderflow analysis or Currency correlation to try and see what the big players are doing.

IHMO I think these are all worth investigating. Currency correlation is something I have not really looked at in great depth so this is where I am looking now.

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #105
  • Oct 13, 2014 4:55am Oct 13, 2014 4:55am
hi I know inefficiencies but I don't know as manage the position... i'm italian trader, sorry my english.

help me? thanks
  • #106
  • Oct 13, 2014 6:19am Oct 13, 2014 6:19am
IMHO, there is no trend, only sentiment, either bullish or bearish.... The trader alone make the trend...
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  • #107
  • Oct 13, 2014 6:30am Oct 13, 2014 6:30am
USD/JPY is very fake at the moment.

Benefit from it!
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #108
  • Oct 13, 2014 7:09am Oct 13, 2014 7:09am
I seriously don't get it? Should I be looking at a particular post or something? I get the premise that price is fake and there are levels that it needs to return to. Beyond this I'm totally stumped
I want more brain power!
  • #109
  • Oct 13, 2014 7:17am Oct 13, 2014 7:17am
EURUSD trade.....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU2.PNG Size: 14 KB
  • #110
  • Oct 13, 2014 7:18am Oct 13, 2014 7:18am
Quoting cfdtaleong
I seriously don't get it? Should I be looking at a particular post or something? I get the premise that price is fake and there are levels that it needs to return to. Beyond this I'm totally stumped
There are many ways to spot this, you just need to find your own
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #111
  • Oct 13, 2014 7:45am Oct 13, 2014 7:45am
Quoting Ullen
{quote} There are many ways to spot this, you just need to find your own
I'm spotting levels right?
I want more brain power!
  • #112
  • Oct 13, 2014 7:54am Oct 13, 2014 7:54am
Quoting Madmoney
EURUSD trade..... {image}
Quoting Madmoney
And another.... USDJPY {image}
these are going with the overall monthly trend though
  • #113
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:09am Oct 13, 2014 8:09am
Quoting grrbear
{quote} {quote} these are going with the overall monthly trend though
I don't know haven't checked.

Is there a point you want to make?
  • #114
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:24am Oct 13, 2014 8:24am
Quoting Neio
I am still developing my ideas but what I can say is that the price that we see is often how the big players want us to see it. They want us to believe in and blindly follow trends in the belief that they will keep going. Maybe it is a bit extreme to say the Trend is our Enemy....as there are times when trending works. There are many threads here that attempt to get under the hood of price and find out what is really going on. Some use tick volume (even though there is no centralised exchange). Others use Orderflow analysis or Currency correlation...
I'm looking into it too Neio. In doing so I found some interesting work on "synthetic money" by these guys - N. V. HOVANOV, J.W. KOLARI, M.V. SOKOLOV

I have a hunch that it also relates to UP's thread "Another Journal" where he states that the hard part is the maths.

I'd be interested to hear what you think.
  • #115
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:33am Oct 13, 2014 8:33am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting rich_tee
{quote} I'm looking into it too Neio. In doing so I found some interesting work on "synthetic money" by these guys - N. V. HOVANOV, J.W. KOLARI, M.V. SOKOLOV I have a hunch that it also relates to UP's thread "Another Journal" where he states that the hard part is the maths. I'd be interested to hear what you think.

Like I said I don't have the answers as I am still developing ideas myself....but it is certainly an interesting line of inquiry.
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #116
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:46am Oct 13, 2014 8:46am
Quoting Madmoney
EURUSD trade..... {image}
Well all this sound very "similarity and TZ" but you must have spotted something and trading a return to it. I guess I should be studying you TPs for the matter
I want more brain power!
  • #117
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:48am Oct 13, 2014 8:48am
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} I don't know haven't checked
^ that clears it up thanks : )
  • #118
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:50am Oct 13, 2014 8:50am
Quoting cfdtaleong
{quote} Well all this sound very "similarity and TZ" but you must have spotted something and trading a return to it. I guess I should be studying you TPs for the matter
I haven't had enough time to experiment with TZ's, I could not get it to work in ALL market conditions.
  • #119
  • Oct 13, 2014 8:52am Oct 13, 2014 8:52am
  •  Neio
  • Joined Oct 2012 | Status: Can't think outside?Enlarge the box | 688 Posts
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} I haven't had enough time to experiment with TZ's, I could not get it to work in ALL market conditions.
I spent a lot of time with TZs and I could not get it to work in all market conditions either. Worked fine for me when ranging but trending ruined it for me. Ironic. Some people are making it work for them so I think it is a personal thing. Does not suit my desired trading style.

Regards

Neio
An expert is a man who has made all the mistakes which can be made
  • #120
  • Oct 13, 2014 9:02am Oct 13, 2014 9:02am
Quoting Neio
{quote} I spent a lot of time with TZs and I could not get it to work in all market conditions either. Worked fine for me when ranging but trending ruined it for me. Ironic. Some people are making it work for them so I think it is a personal thing. Does not suit my desired trading style. Regards Neio
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} I haven't had enough time to experiment with TZ's, I could not get it to work in ALL market conditions.
Well TZs is a basic premise so to speak. Depending on how you apply it TZs work in trends too actually. I'd say its really the approach that matters.

I drew the parallel here because what I believe MM is doing in his examples is that he spotted a mispricing and when conditions allow it he trades back to the mispriced level which is similar to what we do for TZs and DSs albeit the targets we select are different. In essence I think we are all doing the same thing.
I want more brain power!
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