Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
- #42,163
- Oct 13, 2014 6:11am Oct 13, 2014 6:11am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 2,339 Posts
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
- #42,164
- Edited 6:29am Oct 13, 2014 6:17am | Edited 6:29am
{quote} He did used to use that one, but if you look at his recent posts its the one that says www.compass.com on it as well, which the only one I could download from the compass site that show that is this one: {file}
EDIT: I wish I had the compass TDI version earlier this morning - AU long is going fine but I exited at a small loss per the previous TDI was curving...
Also: Silly me - didn't see that today is Columbus Day and volatility is low for NY session - this cost me a loss on EJ long -20
That's alright I got it all back and more with my almost naked PA trading on GU (Eastern + Western techniques). Not posting charts per it's unrelated to this thread but it is something like LE1 system but on H1 and no 10ema, just pure candle analysis+S/R+200ema&800ema.
Posting some testing results for TMS 2009-2014 in a moment...
Alright, guys here it is:
So I don't bore the non-geeks here are the most important nuggets of the testing done:
* High-quality tick data from a Swiss bank used (modeling quality 99.9%). Pair GBPUSD H4.
* Testing is done real time to avoid history bias.
* No reversing and redoing an order is allowed. I did cheat very very little when I couldn't see the PA or the TDI state well I returned the tester for a few trades.
* No doing 2 runs in a row with the same scenario code (SC) is allowed to avoid bias.
* Bank time is GMT+1 (WET) but I set the candles the same as my broker, which is EET (GMT+2) (not sure if successfully...)
* I am far from exhausting all testing scenarios (many many possibilities, you'll find out in the next post) BUT the best achieved results so far are with the following scenario:
RR1: TDI crosses 12-2 o'clock for LONG and 4-6 o'clock for SHORT (Note: I did NOT trade TDI bounces);
RR2: Only enter on candle 1 or candle 2 after reversal change;
RR3: Stop loss extreme of previous 2-3 candles (high for SHORT and low for LONG trades);
RR4: Exit when TDI flattens, hooks or forms a check mark;
DR1: Sufficient size of signal HH bar;
DR3: Mind S/R (look to the left and if there is any S/R (that includes High/Low of nearby candles) in the direction of trade nearby, skip trade);
* I had to be very careful with any type of S/R - weak or strong. 80-90% of the time if I disregard even a weaker S/R level the results suffer dramatically.
DR8: Signal or entry candle price not far from its with-trend extreme (low for SHORT and high for LONG);
*** The important results are as follows:
Pair: GU Time Frame: H4 Test Period: 2014 Total Trades: 36 Winners: 22 Pips: 413
Notes:
61% profitable trades.
Profit/equity line is smoother
but again there is a drop in April-August (September 2014 was especially strong)
and the line is not considered high-quality for long term profitability.
THEREFORE, this system does not seem
to fair well when volatility is low.
ALSO: A good trade/risk management needs to be applied to see if the curve can become smooth and ascending.
TODO: CaveManager (or other?) EA best settings for the system.
TODO: Find a reliable volatility indicator/index and only trade above a certain value.
To all the experienced guys here: Can you kindly address the above TODO's for me (u can see I'm a computer programmer, can't u?
)
Pair: GU Time Frame: H4 Test Period: 2009-2013 Total Trades: 176 Winners: 99 Pips: 2139
Notes: 56% winning ratio. Equity curve is a little rugged.
The meat data results coming in the next post for all the interested parties ;-)
Thanks and please comment!
EDIT: Attached are the 2 equity lines.
So I don't bore the non-geeks here are the most important nuggets of the testing done:
* High-quality tick data from a Swiss bank used (modeling quality 99.9%). Pair GBPUSD H4.
* Testing is done real time to avoid history bias.
* No reversing and redoing an order is allowed. I did cheat very very little when I couldn't see the PA or the TDI state well I returned the tester for a few trades.
* No doing 2 runs in a row with the same scenario code (SC) is allowed to avoid bias.
* Bank time is GMT+1 (WET) but I set the candles the same as my broker, which is EET (GMT+2) (not sure if successfully...)
* I am far from exhausting all testing scenarios (many many possibilities, you'll find out in the next post) BUT the best achieved results so far are with the following scenario:
RR1: TDI crosses 12-2 o'clock for LONG and 4-6 o'clock for SHORT (Note: I did NOT trade TDI bounces);
RR2: Only enter on candle 1 or candle 2 after reversal change;
RR3: Stop loss extreme of previous 2-3 candles (high for SHORT and low for LONG trades);
RR4: Exit when TDI flattens, hooks or forms a check mark;
DR1: Sufficient size of signal HH bar;
DR3: Mind S/R (look to the left and if there is any S/R (that includes High/Low of nearby candles) in the direction of trade nearby, skip trade);
* I had to be very careful with any type of S/R - weak or strong. 80-90% of the time if I disregard even a weaker S/R level the results suffer dramatically.
DR8: Signal or entry candle price not far from its with-trend extreme (low for SHORT and high for LONG);
*** The important results are as follows:
Pair: GU Time Frame: H4 Test Period: 2014 Total Trades: 36 Winners: 22 Pips: 413
Notes:
61% profitable trades.
Profit/equity line is smoother
but again there is a drop in April-August (September 2014 was especially strong)
and the line is not considered high-quality for long term profitability.
THEREFORE, this system does not seem
to fair well when volatility is low.
ALSO: A good trade/risk management needs to be applied to see if the curve can become smooth and ascending.
TODO: CaveManager (or other?) EA best settings for the system.
TODO: Find a reliable volatility indicator/index and only trade above a certain value.
To all the experienced guys here: Can you kindly address the above TODO's for me (u can see I'm a computer programmer, can't u?
)Pair: GU Time Frame: H4 Test Period: 2009-2013 Total Trades: 176 Winners: 99 Pips: 2139
Notes: 56% winning ratio. Equity curve is a little rugged.
The meat data results coming in the next post for all the interested parties ;-)
Thanks and please comment!
EDIT: Attached are the 2 equity lines.
Caught 50 pips on EA H1 this morning, on a break below the LO candle. Price was hesitant at first (probably due to the bank holidays today) but eventually dropped. Despite the small retracement on the Frankfurt candle, London behaved as it often does on a Monday and followed the trend from the Asian session. (Thanks Phx62 
)
Looks like the trend is continuing but I'm leaving the office and won't be able to monitor it. I'm happy with 50 pips... a good start to the week!
)Looks like the trend is continuing but I'm leaving the office and won't be able to monitor it. I'm happy with 50 pips... a good start to the week!
Focus on the process and the profits will follow
Here is the "meat" as promised. To all the experienced guys
: If you can find time and kindly review this, it'll be of great help to all of us!
The Testing Cheat Sheet
Rigid Rules (rules in effect for all combinations):
RR1: TDI crosses 12-2 o'clock for LONG and 4-6 o'clock for SHORT;
RR2: Only enter on candle 1 or candle 2 after reversal change;
RR3: Stop loss extreme of previous 2-3 candles (high for SHORT and low for LONG trades);
RR4: Exit when TDI flattens, hooks or forms a check mark;
Dynamic Rules (rules that can be added and removed in any scenario):
DR1: Sufficient size of signal HH bar;
DR2: Sufficient strength of previous reversal (check size and number of bars);
DR3: Mind S/R (look to the left and if there is any S/R (that includes High/Low of nearby candles) in the direction of trade nearby, skip trade);
DR4: Trending markets only;
DR5: Trade TDI bounces;
DR6: Trades taken Frankfurt Open 2:00 am EST (8:00 am WET) Open till NY Session 12 PM EST (6:00 PM WET);
DR7: Signal or entry candle crossing 5 EMA;
DR8: Signal or entry candle price not far from its with-trend extreme (low for SHORT and high for LONG);
DR9: Red TDI line in the same direction as the green TDI line;
DR10: Stoch angle matches TDI angle (12-2 o'clock for LONG and 4-6 o'clock for SHORT);
DR11: TDI not OB/OS;
DR12: Stoch not OB/OS;
DR13: Mind HTF S/R;
DR14: MTF trend direction agreement;
DR15: MTF TDI direction agreement;
DR16: MTF Stoch direction agreement;
DR17: MTF TDI not OB/OS;
DR18: MTF Stoch not OB/OS;
DR19: Take only with-trend trades;
DR20: Mind divergences;
DR21: Mind round numbers (00's and 50's);
Scenario Codes (SCs) (* stands for 'all'):
Example 1: RR* (all rigid rules - can be omitted in longer codes since rigid rules (RRs) must be in effect at all times);
Example 2: RR*+DR1+DR17 same as just DR1+DR17 (all rigid rules plus DR1 and DR17);
Therefore, the code DR1+DR12+DR16 will in fact be the following scenario:
When TDI crosses 12-2 o'clock for LONG and 4-6 o'clock for SHORT (RR1)
and
when sufficient size of signal HH bar (DR1)
and
when TDI is not OB/OS (DR11)
and
when there is MTF TDI direction agreement (DR15)
then EXECUTE TRADE
and
set stop loss extreme of previous 2-3 candles (high for SHORT and low for LONG trades) (RR3)
and
exit when TDI flattens, hooks or forms a check mark (RR4).
Testing Rules:
TR1: Testing is done real time to avoid history bias.
TR2: No reversing and redoing an order is allowed.
TR3: No doing 2 runs in a row with the same scenario code (SC) is allowed to avoid bias.
Miscellaneous:
Broker time is GMT+1 (WET)
The Results Summary is attached.
All the files and screenshots are also attached.
Thank you, thank you, thank you in advance.
: If you can find time and kindly review this, it'll be of great help to all of us!The Testing Cheat Sheet
Rigid Rules (rules in effect for all combinations):
RR1: TDI crosses 12-2 o'clock for LONG and 4-6 o'clock for SHORT;
RR2: Only enter on candle 1 or candle 2 after reversal change;
RR3: Stop loss extreme of previous 2-3 candles (high for SHORT and low for LONG trades);
RR4: Exit when TDI flattens, hooks or forms a check mark;
Dynamic Rules (rules that can be added and removed in any scenario):
DR1: Sufficient size of signal HH bar;
DR2: Sufficient strength of previous reversal (check size and number of bars);
DR3: Mind S/R (look to the left and if there is any S/R (that includes High/Low of nearby candles) in the direction of trade nearby, skip trade);
DR4: Trending markets only;
DR5: Trade TDI bounces;
DR6: Trades taken Frankfurt Open 2:00 am EST (8:00 am WET) Open till NY Session 12 PM EST (6:00 PM WET);
DR7: Signal or entry candle crossing 5 EMA;
DR8: Signal or entry candle price not far from its with-trend extreme (low for SHORT and high for LONG);
DR9: Red TDI line in the same direction as the green TDI line;
DR10: Stoch angle matches TDI angle (12-2 o'clock for LONG and 4-6 o'clock for SHORT);
DR11: TDI not OB/OS;
DR12: Stoch not OB/OS;
DR13: Mind HTF S/R;
DR14: MTF trend direction agreement;
DR15: MTF TDI direction agreement;
DR16: MTF Stoch direction agreement;
DR17: MTF TDI not OB/OS;
DR18: MTF Stoch not OB/OS;
DR19: Take only with-trend trades;
DR20: Mind divergences;
DR21: Mind round numbers (00's and 50's);
Scenario Codes (SCs) (* stands for 'all'):
Example 1: RR* (all rigid rules - can be omitted in longer codes since rigid rules (RRs) must be in effect at all times);
Example 2: RR*+DR1+DR17 same as just DR1+DR17 (all rigid rules plus DR1 and DR17);
Therefore, the code DR1+DR12+DR16 will in fact be the following scenario:
When TDI crosses 12-2 o'clock for LONG and 4-6 o'clock for SHORT (RR1)
and
when sufficient size of signal HH bar (DR1)
and
when TDI is not OB/OS (DR11)
and
when there is MTF TDI direction agreement (DR15)
then EXECUTE TRADE
and
set stop loss extreme of previous 2-3 candles (high for SHORT and low for LONG trades) (RR3)
and
exit when TDI flattens, hooks or forms a check mark (RR4).
Testing Rules:
TR1: Testing is done real time to avoid history bias.
TR2: No reversing and redoing an order is allowed.
TR3: No doing 2 runs in a row with the same scenario code (SC) is allowed to avoid bias.
Miscellaneous:
Broker time is GMT+1 (WET)
The Results Summary is attached.
All the files and screenshots are also attached.
Thank you, thank you, thank you in advance.
- #42,168
- Oct 13, 2014 7:42am Oct 13, 2014 7:42am
- Joined Jan 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,657 Posts
Here is the "meat" as promised. To all the experienced guys
I'll give it the time it deserves and go through it properly before I comment further. Which tester did you use, I'm not sure if you've answered that before.
{quote}Thats an awful lot of work thank you rkp for doing this
I used Forex Tester 2.9 full version (was not sure if I was allowed to mention commercial products here...)
Looking forward to your comments!
EURAUD H1 Trade
I did my homework over the weekend and spotted the previous structure levels, where the TDI is and what to be expected on Monday. As Japan and USA was closed and it was Monday, I wasn't expecting too much but waiting for the market to show me the right trade setup that complies with my homework.
I did lot of learning on how to spot previous structure and what TDI tells you when PA is moving. I wasn't to eager to place a trade on this pair but waiting for the right PA to break the previous structure on the left, if any.
I was watching the TDI whole time before placing the trade as it was already in the overbought area and as the price moved and gave the indication of potential break of the structure with the TDI confirmation, I pulled the Sell trigger.
My SL was 40 pips as there was a massive rejection of bull candle, I kept my SL close. At one time the trade was 25 pips against me but I stayed with the TDI signal which was still strong towards the selling of EURAUD.
EA H1 Entry
EA H4 TDI and PA confirmation
Profit taken Explained
Kindest Regards
EDIT: I took this trade before my regular Job and let CM did all the work. What I did on my part was my homework.
I did my homework over the weekend and spotted the previous structure levels, where the TDI is and what to be expected on Monday. As Japan and USA was closed and it was Monday, I wasn't expecting too much but waiting for the market to show me the right trade setup that complies with my homework.
I did lot of learning on how to spot previous structure and what TDI tells you when PA is moving. I wasn't to eager to place a trade on this pair but waiting for the right PA to break the previous structure on the left, if any.
I was watching the TDI whole time before placing the trade as it was already in the overbought area and as the price moved and gave the indication of potential break of the structure with the TDI confirmation, I pulled the Sell trigger.
My SL was 40 pips as there was a massive rejection of bull candle, I kept my SL close. At one time the trade was 25 pips against me but I stayed with the TDI signal which was still strong towards the selling of EURAUD.
EA H1 Entry
EA H4 TDI and PA confirmation
Profit taken Explained
Kindest Regards
EDIT: I took this trade before my regular Job and let CM did all the work. What I did on my part was my homework.
- #42,171
- Oct 13, 2014 8:22am Oct 13, 2014 8:22am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 2,339 Posts
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
- #42,172
- Oct 13, 2014 8:24am Oct 13, 2014 8:24am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 2,339 Posts
{quote} Thanks, buddy!
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
- #42,173
- Oct 13, 2014 8:43am Oct 13, 2014 8:43am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: Happy trading n enjoy green pips | 5,322 Posts
Appreciation is the key to wealth and happiness
- #42,174
- Oct 13, 2014 8:54am Oct 13, 2014 8:54am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: Happy trading n enjoy green pips | 5,322 Posts
EU short @R from M15 did not go any where until I exited it 
. It s too close to support.
. It s too close to support.
Appreciation is the key to wealth and happiness
{quote} Is it possible to use TDI with ForexTester 2.9, I am willing to get this tester if I can use TDI and APB candles for back-testing, thanks for sharing
It is a great training tool and a good supplement to your trading but unfortunately it will never replace real-time trading experience
- #42,178
- Oct 13, 2014 9:15am Oct 13, 2014 9:15am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 2,339 Posts
{quote} Yes, it is! The new version 2 has many indicators. It is the regular TDI, not the Synergy one though. Download the demo version first and try it. It is a great training tool and a good supplement to your trading but unfortunately it will never replace real-time trading experience
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
- #42,179
- Oct 13, 2014 9:16am Oct 13, 2014 9:16am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 2,339 Posts
I had 2 losers for -28 and a B/E , than got this G/NZ trade for +62 -- so I'm hanging on in there . Overall trading at around B/E the last couple of weeks {image}
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
