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  • #929,061
  • Oct 11, 2014 12:27pm Oct 11, 2014 12:27pm
see from post no 523. all trades are post in real time.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...44#post7789944
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #929,062
  • Oct 11, 2014 1:06pm Oct 11, 2014 1:06pm
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I do not use technicals like pattern, fibs, bat, butterflies, trend lines, stochs, HH, LL, pivots, etc. But it doesn't mean I trade with eyes closed. Have to study charts for things like how pa is reacting to a new development, going up or down, pulling back, consolidating or trending, etc. As far as believing on technical studies is concerned there is nothing wrong in believing in technicals, but one should have a method that tells what to do if technicals do not play out as expected. My method has few such good tactics and therefore I...
I had to study that too, it connects to supply and demand theory.
Just wanted to know where you stand. Thank you for replying.
Economists struggle because they can't understand how price can be driven by techs and often endure long draw downs until eventually fundamentals play out. I have seen this over and over again (I work in banking). So they need techs to get in and to get out. Round numbers can be considered technicals as well as fibs and others. I have over the years seen one very particular thing: Price always turns at technical levels, I defy anyone (in a good manner) to show me an example where that didn't happen and then you will never see me here claiming that again. I go even further and say that these levels are always a combination of Fibonacci numbers on multiple tfs (and maybe other technicalities that I don't know of). This is obviously my experience and I don't come here to show off or anything, I come here only to share my knowledge the same way other people were kind enough to share theirs with me + my hard work researching on it.
This is why when I see someone ruling out or playing down Fibs (which is my strongest area by far) I feel like I should at least say something about it, respecting other views and open to learn something new which I quite often do.
Have a good weekend.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #929,063
  • Oct 11, 2014 1:43pm Oct 11, 2014 1:43pm
Quoting pedro319
{quote} I look at least to 4 tfs: 1 hour, 4 hours, Daily + Weekly. Most of the time it's the relationship between them that is important. If you are interested in Harmonics then you will have to read a bit about it until it makes sense. I can recommend literature.
Pedro, please list your literature recommendations. Thanks, pard.
  • #929,064
  • Oct 11, 2014 2:49pm Oct 11, 2014 2:49pm
Very interesting posts, gentlemen! First, Maxdoom with the GDP diversion. Next, Gatorinla with energy cost differential and France rating downgrade. Then Chicky writing, "No matter what bad news come out after it has reached a bottom, it wont affect the price as much." And then there's Pedro319 with Fib info. Makes it difficult to decide whether 1.25000 was a bounce or major pivot. I'm thinking the later. Thanks again, gents.
  • #929,065
  • Oct 11, 2014 3:44pm Oct 11, 2014 3:44pm
I post very often in this thread, still feeling not fit for this place some geniuses are there but lot of noise too. we must remember that at retail point we did not trade actual currencies but there derivatives , Forex trading is done by tier 1 bank and some big ones. all indicators are by product of price. though some time they help full but trade on base on these indicators is just like walk in killing zone. so key is management of your trade, there is always a chance of sudden death move. keep this always in mind, never think your trade is safe if it is not close or lock. as soon you you clear your screen from indicators it will be the first step to ward actual trading.
all old data is history and market did not obey it, it is only our assumption that in past she did this so it will also do this one at this time but when she did not do that action we looking for reason oh it is ZZ , Flatt irregular correction. it is testing new top or new low, it has to make new LL or HH for next move it should test 1.61 or 0.616 level before any move, wrong all is wrong. the price is not slave of these thing. after price movement one can see every formation but not before that.
ask her what she want to do and go with her she is the only one that give you the clue of next direction not any thing else
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #929,066
  • Oct 11, 2014 3:49pm Oct 11, 2014 3:49pm
Quoting rehorst
{quote} Pedro, please list your literature recommendations. Thanks, pard.
I will pm them to you later.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #929,067
  • Oct 11, 2014 8:31pm Oct 11, 2014 8:31pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} green eggs and ham is my only trading book. the best movie i ever watched on trading was money ball. (i highly recomend the movie for forex trading ) {image}
Great movie, Moneyball. Thanks for the recommendation, Gator.
  • #929,068
  • Oct 12, 2014 2:11am Oct 12, 2014 2:11am
Who thinks E/U will be in uptrend next week?
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  • #929,069
  • Oct 12, 2014 3:34am Oct 12, 2014 3:34am
Quoting pedro319
{quote} I had to study that too, it connects to supply and demand theory. Just wanted to know where you stand. Thank you for replying. Economists struggle because they can't understand how price can be driven by techs and often endure long draw downs until eventually fundamentals play out. I have seen this over and over again (I work in banking). So they need techs to get in and to get out. Round numbers can be considered technicals as well as fibs and others. I have over the years seen one very particular thing: Price always turns at technical...

"We typically trade our beliefs about the market and once we've made up our minds about those beliefs, we're not likely to change them. And when we play the markets, we assume that we are considering all of the available information. Instead, our beliefs through selective perception, may have eliminated the most useful information".
A. K. Tharp
  • #929,070
  • Oct 12, 2014 3:34am Oct 12, 2014 3:34am
so everyone...what do you believe is going to happen the next few days?
  • #929,071
  • Oct 12, 2014 3:54am Oct 12, 2014 3:54am
what will be?

If market consider Fischer`s speech : Possibly it will open with 30-40 pip gap up.Then it will hit to 1.2850 in any point in the week.
If market consider Draghi`s speech: Possibly it will open with 30-40 pip gap down. Then it will hit to 1.25 in any point in the week.


Now both actors are clashing to each other. Both of them doesnt want strong currency.

I think euro will go up first (monday) despite other traders reckon it will go down . Because however dollar is more important then euro for world economies and Fisher is more clever than Draghi (my opinion).

I have no open position,just commenting.
Its not an advice and sorry for grammar.
  • #929,072
  • Edited 5:01am Oct 12, 2014 4:42am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting MickeyBlue
{quote} "We typically trade our beliefs about the market and once we've made up our minds about those beliefs, we're not likely to change them. And when we play the markets, we assume that we are considering all of the available information. Instead, our beliefs through selective perception, may have eliminated the most useful information". A. K. Tharp
Very well said. Mark Douglas has a similar remark in his Trading in the Zone book.
However, You should as well have built a system and figured out what works and what doesn't over a sustained period of time, otherwise it's pure roulette and you don't have an edge to play it.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #929,073
  • Oct 12, 2014 6:02am Oct 12, 2014 6:02am
Instead of trading Euro to USD, why not trade the USD basket as most of the bearishness in E/U is caused by the rapid appreciation of dollar.

The 12 weeks Dollar rally has temporarily come to an end as the weekly Dollar Index chart printed a large bear candle ever since July.

So now it's good time to short the USD against its counterparts like GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, NZD before the rally resume.

84.00 is the main demand area for buying any Dollar pull back now.

Good luck
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  • #929,074
  • Oct 12, 2014 6:04am Oct 12, 2014 6:04am
Quoting amikaking
Instead of trading Euro to USD, why not trade the USD basket as most of the bearishness in E/U is caused by the rapid appreciation of dollar. The 12 weeks Dollar rally has temporarily come to an end as the weekly Dollar Index chart printed a large bear candle ever since July. So now it's good time to short the USD against its counterparts like GBP, JPY, CAD, AUD, NZD before the rally resume. 84.00 is the main demand area for buying any Dollar pull back now. Good luck {image} {image}
I was checking USD/CAD just before I see this post. Quite attractive! Good point!
Its not an advice and sorry for grammar.
  • #929,075
  • Oct 12, 2014 6:30am Oct 12, 2014 6:30am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I do not use technicals like pattern, fibs, bat, butterflies, trend lines, stochs, HH, LL, pivots, etc. But it doesn't mean I trade with eyes closed. Have to study charts for things like how pa is reacting to a new development, going up or down, pulling back, consolidating or trending, etc. As far as believing on technical studies is concerned there is nothing wrong in believing in technicals, but one should have a method that tells what to do if technicals do not play out as expected. My method has few such good tactics and therefore I...

you have some really funny trading methods ! lol
  • #929,076
  • Oct 12, 2014 6:40am Oct 12, 2014 6:40am
Quoting Kgp
so everyone...what do you believe is going to happen the next few days?
its the million dollar question
  • #929,077
  • Edited 11:52am Oct 12, 2014 7:43am | Edited 11:52am
EURUSD
Possible harmonic scenarios.
1- ABCD 4 hours chart. Invalidation point stands at around 1.2561 which is .786 Ret same tf, if prices passes through then I will be looking at 2nd scenario. GBPUSD has a similar setup. AUDUSD on the contrary has broken .786.
Targets if this low .618 holds is 1.2910 approx, Weekly R2 area and possibility for Bfly Sell daily chart.
On the way up I don't want to see any particular rejection at .447, .5, .618 or .786 (the last one being the ultimate barrier at 1.2750) , just small bounces, no reversal candles or bear candlestick patterns more so on the 4 hr tf.

2- ABCD Daily chart.
I have a 4 hrs chart on this one as well, however this ABCD is best seen on the daily chart, price almost touched 61.8 at the top last week.
Invalidation is the high of last week and even 20 pips above 1.2808. I am not using this invalidation to trade but rather to know what price is doing and where it might head next. The most important is that, if price continues down, we can more easily look for targets, that part was explained here last week. Final target would stand at 1.2314. These scenarios obviously work best if market doesn't turn into consolidation.

3- Bfly Sell Daily chart
This one assumes a very slow price action towards target due to triangle angle width. In this case, I would like to see price coming down to 1.2560, followed by strong rejection, and then move back up.

Note: As you see I am open to anything that price wants to do and my parameters are clearly defined. During the week probably there will be few nuances like convergence of Fibs namely with 1 hour chart + Pivots + divergences of MACD etc. Will update this later.
If you follow this, plot the levels on your charts and see how prices react to these areas.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #929,078
  • Oct 12, 2014 8:17am Oct 12, 2014 8:17am
Oh. my prediction of the week...............................................i will eat BULL meat till am full.
  • #929,079
  • Oct 12, 2014 10:11am Oct 12, 2014 10:11am
Quoting Chicky
{quote} I do not use technicals
Chicky, how to best learn about x.oden's method? Thanks.
  • #929,080
  • Oct 12, 2014 11:25am Oct 12, 2014 11:25am
Tiny GAP to the upside, trading 1.2648 at the moment, off market price of course.


http://www.xe.com/
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