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Counter-trend trading

  • #61
  • Oct 9, 2014 7:33am Oct 9, 2014 7:33am
Quoting Ullen
NZD/USD SHORT. Price will hit 0.78000
Black hole there U?
  • #62
  • Oct 9, 2014 2:25pm Oct 9, 2014 2:25pm
Beat that trend!
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Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #63
  • Oct 9, 2014 4:43pm Oct 9, 2014 4:43pm
One way of doing this, which I will try, is to:
-establish the trend.
-measure the external fibos of the last swing, and look for only (or minimum) 1,618 and 2,000 external ones (the most common extremes...).
-wait for a fast stochastich (or similar) to reverse and enter....TP could be the same inside retracement from the original swing...in the opposite direction (counter trend).

Ever tried to tp at external retracements coming from a successfull correction trade ?...most hands get shaky, the longer the price climbs further than the mentioned external retracements....that is what makes total sense to me in this thread...look for extremes that make sense...and hit them in the face....tke your profit and run...
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  • #64
  • Oct 9, 2014 4:45pm Oct 9, 2014 4:45pm
By the way, the bold blue lines are 2,000 retracements, first one is external...second internal....
just my two cents worth...that was a 60 M chart, but the same happens on every time frame...

look for extremes
  • #65
  • Oct 9, 2014 4:46pm Oct 9, 2014 4:46pm
Quoting Ullen
NZD/USD SHORT. Price will hit 0.78000
NZD/USD is going to 0.65, actually. They announced it a few weeks ago.

On a different note, that's a very impressive 1-day trading record you have so far! Those are the kinds of trades and scalps or even swing trades that I'm trying to get my EA to make (automatically, of course).
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #66
  • Oct 9, 2014 4:52pm Oct 9, 2014 4:52pm
Quoting Ullen
Beat that trend! {image} {image}
Well played!

Remember it's all game....
  • #67
  • Oct 9, 2014 6:17pm Oct 9, 2014 6:17pm
Quoting smash1820
{quote} NZD/USD is going to 0.65, actually. They announced it a few weeks ago. On a different note, that's a very impressive 1-day trading record you have so far! Those are the kinds of trades and scalps or even swing trades that I'm trying to get my EA to make (automatically, of course).
Cool!

Once you do that you are all set. I like the manual trading, so even if i could make an EA (probably could), i wouldn't.

Just love trading!
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #68
  • Oct 9, 2014 6:18pm Oct 9, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} Well played! Remember it's all game....
Yes, it is indeed a big game my friend. Very few know that, so they are taking part in the game while we see how it works.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #69
  • Oct 9, 2014 8:00pm Oct 9, 2014 8:00pm
Quoting Ullen
Yes, it is indeed a big game my friend. Very few know that, so they are taking part in the game while we see how it works.
Please check out my blog at https://from-zero-to-hero . net
  • #70
  • Oct 10, 2014 9:43am Oct 10, 2014 9:43am
The price movement created on all USD pairs is not real!

It is not the real price. Price will return to real price very soon.

I'll leave you guys to figure out what this means.

Ullen
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #71
  • Oct 10, 2014 11:17am Oct 10, 2014 11:17am
Quoting Ullen
The price movement created on all USD pairs is not real! It is not the real price. Price will return to real price very soon. I'll leave you guys to figure out what this means. Ullen
what do you mean by saying "not real"?

didn't we wait at least 1 year for USD appreciation?

does 1.39 seems more real to you?
  • #72
  • Oct 10, 2014 11:56am Oct 10, 2014 11:56am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} what do you mean by saying "not real"? didn't we wait at least 1 year for USD appreciation? does 1.39 seems more real to you?
Can't say im sorry.

But i'm in shorter term
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #73
  • Edited Oct 11, 2014 10:45am Oct 10, 2014 12:09pm | Edited Oct 11, 2014 10:45am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} what do you mean by saying "not real"? didn't we wait at least 1 year for USD appreciation? does 1.39 seems more real to you?
Price doesn't always have good value. This is what is meant by price not being real.

It's also a way to spot market inefficiencies/mispricing.

MM
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  • #74
  • Oct 10, 2014 8:29pm Oct 10, 2014 8:29pm
Quoting hollowhead
Surely, to trade counter trend you must first know what the trend is, so the trend is actually your friend in disguise. I have to say that in the long term, a trader who buys low consistently and holds indefinitely will invariably be more profitable to the trader who sells high and has a set TP.
Nugget.
  • #75
  • Oct 10, 2014 8:32pm Oct 10, 2014 8:32pm
Quoting Ullen
Here i will post an example of a basic counter-trend trade on the 15M timeframe. When you find out a way to spot weakening in trend, or another way to predict future price, you should be able to trade this method without any loss at all. I've added a SL of 10 pips because i don't have time to manage more than 5 trades at a time. With a win rate at 70-80% and targets bigger than SL you should see that i'm making money in the long run. This concept is very very profitable IF you trade it right! If you don't trade it right...
Nugget.
  • #76
  • Edited Oct 11, 2014 4:02pm Oct 10, 2014 11:09pm | Edited Oct 11, 2014 4:02pm
Here is a USDCHF target...

USDCAD & EURUSD
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  • #77
  • Oct 10, 2014 11:47pm Oct 10, 2014 11:47pm
There is not exact definition of TREND

Trader should not think of trend because trend is nothing with the trade

i agree...trend is not your friend

i have discuss about this topic

Trade with trend- Fantasy vs Reality http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=474501
  • #78
  • Oct 10, 2014 11:50pm Oct 10, 2014 11:50pm
U should find a target...but not trend


if u know where the TARGET of market..

trend will exist by itself....

by not think about trend...u will remove the stressful of business ...
  • #79
  • Oct 11, 2014 12:39am Oct 11, 2014 12:39am
Quoting Ullen
Beat that trend!
Ullen, I see on your first trade you hold it for 28 hours and if I'm not wrong you had at least about 70 pips drawdown for a result of 4.2 pips (Post #62) .
I guess, you're not using a stoploss. But on the other hand you made 740 pips on that day. With that 70 pips re not a big deal.
That makes me think..
  • #80
  • Oct 11, 2014 10:21am Oct 11, 2014 10:21am
Quoting chjungen
{quote} Ullen, I see on your first trade you hold it for 28 hours and if I'm not wrong you had at least about 70 pips drawdown for a result of 4.2 pips (Post #62) . I guess, you're not using a stoploss. But on the other hand you made 740 pips on that day. With that 70 pips re not a big deal. That makes me think..
Yes, that entry was totally off, but i knew that target would be hit soon, so no sweat.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
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