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The similarity system

  • #10,101
  • Oct 9, 2014 4:52am Oct 9, 2014 4:52am
Quoting hoss
{quote} NZD complete, just waiting on the CHF.
Great stuff on the NZD! Just had a look on the CHF and that's looking good so far (igindex view though, no mt4).
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #10,102
  • Oct 9, 2014 5:05am Oct 9, 2014 5:05am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Great stuff on the NZD! Just had a look on the CHF and that's looking good so far (igindex view though, no mt4).
Thanks, Vlady. Good stuff in here.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
  • #10,103
  • Oct 9, 2014 5:53am Oct 9, 2014 5:53am
Hello here,

Still reading and learning.

I am playing with Kprsa reccurrent statistics v3 and enjoy it

Can someone one explain all the statistics on the left and mainly the red and blue arrow on charts?

Thanks to all for this thread.

Green pips to you
Bottomless wonders spring from simple rules, which are repeated without end
  • #10,104
  • Oct 9, 2014 6:08am Oct 9, 2014 6:08am
Quoting limprobable
Hello here, Still reading and learning. I am playing with Kprsa reccurrent statistics v3 and enjoy it Can someone one explain all the statistics on the left and mainly the red and blue arrow on charts? Thanks to all for this thread. Green pips to you

welcome...linsanity....limposible....lincredible...
  • #10,105
  • Edited 6:27am Oct 9, 2014 6:17am | Edited 6:27am
Quoting limprobable
Hello here, Still reading and learning. I am playing with Kprsa reccurrent statistics v3 and enjoy it Can someone one explain all the statistics on the left and mainly the red and blue arrow on charts? Thanks to all for this thread. Green pips to you
Hi limprobable, the arrows are by default white for the cleared/resolved (potentially transient zones that become recurrent) zones and red and DodgerBlue for the uncleared zones (confirmed transient for your parameters).

The most important piece of stats is the "Probability of full resolving". This tells you with which probability will the left-side transient zone become a recurrent zone in the future for your selected h_left and h_right (in version 3 it is possible to look at those numbers separately).

If you want to look more precisely, at the end-of-the-candle zones (I call those "fractal" zones) or the mid-bar (I call those "transient" zones) zone in your data and are wondering what is the probability that it would become recurrent, the answer is in the "Probability of fully resolving possible fractal/transient zone".
The probability of full resolving, mentioned previously, is the aggregated statistics for the two types of zones together.

k
  • #10,106
  • Oct 9, 2014 8:03am Oct 9, 2014 8:03am
Quoting evrynet
{quote} so you expect EUR going down?
I was expecting a pull back, retracement
  • #10,107
  • Edited 8:37am Oct 9, 2014 8:20am | Edited 8:37am
Quoting diceman555
Not sure if this helps ,but for those scalping using variations of this methodology,ive established that there is a constant that can be used,that constant is that price returns within 10 to 30 pips distance is 66 % ,with less than 1% deviation from that. Dice
This continues to intrigue me.

Are you saying that 66% of the time (with only a 1% standard deviation), that when you draw a left side H, that the right H will be hit 66% of the time with price only going against you a max of 30 pips before the right H is hit?
  • #10,108
  • Oct 9, 2014 11:54am Oct 9, 2014 11:54am
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} This continues to intrigue me. Are you saying that 66% of the time (with only a 1% standard deviation), that when you draw a left side H, that the right H will be hit 66% of the time with price only going against you a max of 30 pips before the right H is hit?
YES,

The point being ,you need to think about the implications of that.

theres a very good reason why .

remember that ,which ever ratio of return you choose will result in perfect equilibrium .you have two ways to go,trade with skill of understanding the market and its structure or look at the maths ,the 66 % remains constant over time .trend and consolidation.
  • #10,109
  • Oct 9, 2014 12:42pm Oct 9, 2014 12:42pm
Well in a nut shell....We do not expect see a lot of TZs unless course you are using small H values. So when we see a LTZ form are we expecting to see a TZ later or not? Pretty much no right? We then look for stuff to support that return.
I want more brain power!
  • #10,110
  • Oct 9, 2014 1:06pm Oct 9, 2014 1:06pm
Hello Traders. Im new Here and would like develop this system with You. Would You help me upolad good template with trading ruls. I will be grateful for helping. Where can i find trading ruls? My chart looks like that . Best Trades for Everyone
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: New Idea.png Size: 137 KB
  • #10,111
  • Oct 9, 2014 1:23pm Oct 9, 2014 1:23pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} YES, The point being ,you need to think about the implications of that. theres a very good reason why . remember that ,which ever ratio of return you choose will result in perfect equilibrium .you have two ways to go,trade with skill of understanding the market and its structure or look at the maths ,the 66 % remains constant over time .trend and consolidation.
Nice filter dice, I need to look into this more (:
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #10,112
  • Oct 9, 2014 2:12pm Oct 9, 2014 2:12pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} YES, The point being ,you need to think about the implications of that. theres a very good reason why . remember that ,which ever ratio of return you choose will result in perfect equilibrium .you have two ways to go,trade with skill of understanding the market and its structure or look at the maths ,the 66 % remains constant over time .trend and consolidation.
Thank you Dice.

Let me see if I am looking at this correctly.

Assuming 100 trades when left H is formed. If you enter a position with the knowledge that it will hit right H 66% of the time after retracing away from H between 10 - 30 pips, then here is a starting point:

100 trades, stop loss at 31 pips, target at 16+ pips, must factor in spread or commission when caculating

34 trades hit stop loss x 31 pips = 1,054
66 trades go to target of 16 pips = 1,056

Problem with the above is the 66% is only getting back to H, meaning that if you don't wait for a 16 pip move away from H before entering the statistics are not valid, but if you wait for 16 pips there will be times when it only retraces 10 pips and returns to H so you miss the trade which will throw off the statistics as well. Hmmmmm.

More pondering to do but it's a starting point I guess.

Cheers
  • #10,113
  • Oct 9, 2014 4:57pm Oct 9, 2014 4:57pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} Thank you Dice. Let me see if I am looking at this correctly. Assuming 100 trades when left H is formed. If you enter a position with the knowledge that it will hit right H 66% of the time after retracing away from H between 10 - 30 pips, then here is a starting point: 100 trades, stop loss at 31 pips, target at 16+ pips, must factor in spread or commission when caculating 34 trades hit stop loss x 31 pips = 1,054 66 trades go to target of 16 pips = 1,056 Problem with the above is the 66% is only getting back to H, meaning that if you don't...
If you enter every point from 10-30 (avg 20 minus 1.5 for Spread), with SL 31 + Spread (call it 32.5 for a net loss of 14), it yields +12.21 -4.76 = 7.45 pts expected return per trade. 45% wins is BE. Diceman if you could share your data it would be huge...
  • #10,114
  • Oct 9, 2014 6:32pm Oct 9, 2014 6:32pm
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} If you enter every point from 10-30 (avg 20 minus 1.5 for Spread), with SL 31 + Spread (call it 32.5 for a net loss of 14), it yields +12.21 -4.76 = 7.45 pts expected return per trade. 45% wins is BE. Diceman if you could share your data it would be huge...
I thought of averaging in like this as well; however, my concern would be almost all of your wins would have a partial position on and every single loss would have a full position on yielding a losing strategy overall.
  • #10,115
  • Oct 9, 2014 6:47pm Oct 9, 2014 6:47pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
{quote} I thought of averaging in like this as well; however, my concern would be almost all of your wins would have a partial position on and every single loss would have a full position on yielding a losing strategy overall.
Exactly - need to see Dice's data. Without spread, this and many other probabilities like it can be optimized to come out at BE - and with spread, they lose. When you find this everywhere you look for probabilities, it really is quite impressive that the market can be that efficient - which is the beauty of similarity - identifying when the market is not being efficient.
  • #10,116
  • Oct 9, 2014 7:08pm Oct 9, 2014 7:08pm
Quoting paivarm
{quote} Thanks pdema. Correct. The idea is to work with simple concepts, is precisely what I do in this EA . I'm not a master I admit it, I need to learn a lot, but I think I got something very interesting and it's working. Soon I will post the code open here . With respect to the sentence of your friend, tell him that banks like: UBS , Barclays , Credit Suisse and Goldman.... are quitting their traders and putting algorithms in their places. The Swiss bank resigned Gallers David, head of trading CDS and put in its place a algorithm using mathematical...
Understood ...
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #10,117
  • Oct 9, 2014 7:09pm Oct 9, 2014 7:09pm
Quoting diceman555
{quote} YES, The point being ,you need to think about the implications of that. theres a very good reason why . remember that ,which ever ratio of return you choose will result in perfect equilibrium .you have two ways to go,trade with skill of understanding the market and its structure or look at the maths ,the 66 % remains constant over time .trend and consolidation.
Thanks a lot Dice. This is a Great information, i remember now, no need to be a 100% perfectionist
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #10,118
  • Oct 9, 2014 7:13pm Oct 9, 2014 7:13pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} I was expecting a pull back, retracement
Ou, more and more wonderful information i get. Thanks mates
Good friends are more valuable than gold ...
  • #10,119
  • Oct 9, 2014 10:33pm Oct 9, 2014 10:33pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Here you go Few things to focus on: a- Positive Floating b- 94.55% profit trades (243/257) c- Max consecutive losses = 2 d- Max volume = 1 lot/trade e- Total profit > 100% in less than 1 month {image}
Hello.
Can you please explain the rules again? (when to enter and exit. where to put take profit and stop loss? what time frame to trade?)
because I am not good in English and there are many posts with many system rules, I do not know what system do you use..
I am trading more than 1 year.. but could not find any working systems... lost more than $20K... but can not stop trading.. please help me.
  • #10,120
  • Oct 9, 2014 11:22pm Oct 9, 2014 11:22pm
Good morning @ all,

i'm trying to understand how to trade with the Tz's. Could someone, who already use it for trading, give an example for a trade opportunity at e/u right now?

Here is the H1 chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH1.png Size: 23 KB


So, we have an Even-TZ to the downside and a Uneven-TZ to the upside. A trade towards the Even-TZ? What would be the choice?


Regards

Chriss
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