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The similarity system

  • #10,081
  • Oct 8, 2014 11:46am Oct 8, 2014 11:46am
Quoting giovanni4000
{quote} I am waiting for 2594. Will FOMC do the reverse, and going up ???
Any talk of interest rates and the dollar will go nuts.. be aware!
  • #10,082
  • Oct 8, 2014 11:48am Oct 8, 2014 11:48am
this is my statement, demo acc start 2 oktober 2014 - 8 oktober 2014

drawdown and loss trade cause is im wrong see chart because sleepy, and make wrong order

very amazing system!!

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  • #10,083
  • Oct 8, 2014 12:24pm Oct 8, 2014 12:24pm
Quoting FX-Jay
{quote} When you have a 90+% profitable trade (based on the system settings), you have the advantage of playing with your R:R. I can chose to have an RR of 8:1 and still be profitable. However, if you are actively trading and experience enough to know how price behaves at certain points, you don't even need a SL. So yes let the price come to you (but wisely)
I can see setting up a probability to reverse or continue a known break, i.e. left-side formed - by varying the right side as time marches on and/or looking into the future, since the probability exhibits logarithmic decay. However, this is essentially using TZ's as resistance, and EURUSDD warned against this. The premise, knowing the probability of a TZ being cleared in x,y,z time, means one may trade towards or away from the zone. How to go from this to calling a specific target that is not itself a TZ, with accurate probability based on 1 chart, 1 tf, and only TZ's, I can't yet see. I don't believe that a target would be based on the calculated time risk * some RR, since this would make the target arbitrary, and therefore impossible to calculate odds of hitting (without other data). I'm not used to "not getting it" and this, while motivational and likely character-building, is excruciating!
  • #10,084
  • Oct 8, 2014 12:44pm Oct 8, 2014 12:44pm
Quoting brekz1
this is my statement, demo acc start 2 oktober 2014 - 8 oktober 2014 drawdown and loss trade cause is im wrong see chart because sleepy, and make wrong order very amazing system!! {image}
Mind is the King
  • #10,085
  • Oct 8, 2014 2:34pm Oct 8, 2014 2:34pm
Quoting SunSaltwater
Hi, {image} Not sure if this will help some people or not; however, I am hoping at the very least it sparks discussion so that we are clear on what the TZ's actual mean and how to spot them etc. My chart could be way off along with my calculations so happy for feedback. If you look at the image I have drawn either a black line, or if more than one pip movement drawn a black box. This line or box is only drawn at areas of price where the prior six bars or post six bars are not touched by another bar. This is how I am interpreting H. There is a mid-bar...
Thank you....
My help is in the name of the Lord who made heaven and earth.
  • #10,086
  • Oct 8, 2014 3:32pm Oct 8, 2014 3:32pm
Quoting Albertdkpllh
{quote} Thank you....
Happy to help. If you find the 'Keys to the Kingdom' don't forget to post here or PM me with your insights.

  • #10,087
  • Oct 8, 2014 3:33pm Oct 8, 2014 3:33pm
Not sure if this helps ,but for those scalping using variations of this methodology,ive established that there is a constant that can be used,that constant is that price returns within 10 to 30 pips distance is 66 % ,with less than 1% deviation from that.

Dice
  • #10,088
  • Oct 8, 2014 4:18pm Oct 8, 2014 4:18pm
Quoting diceman555
Not sure if this helps ,but for those scalping using variations of this methodology,ive established that there is a constant that can be used,that constant is that price returns within 10 to 30 pips distance is 66 % ,with less than 1% deviation from that. Dice
Thank you for the information.

For the thick headed, can you show that on a labeled chart?
  • #10,089
  • Oct 8, 2014 5:38pm Oct 8, 2014 5:38pm
Consider the M1 price action +5,-2.5, +5, -2.5... repeat. On M1, this would show as having 1 TZ of 2.5 pts at the top. On M15, this would show as a continuous TZ of 22.5 pts. Seems to say that each tf must be clean independently of the other tf's.
  • #10,090
  • Oct 8, 2014 8:09pm Oct 8, 2014 8:09pm
Quoting diceman555
Not sure if this helps ,but for those scalping using variations of this methodology,ive established that there is a constant that can be used,that constant is that price returns within 10 to 30 pips distance is 66 % ,with less than 1% deviation from that. Dice
Nice to see you dice. If it is possible, a chart can explain all of that
  • #10,091
  • Oct 8, 2014 8:11pm Oct 8, 2014 8:11pm
Quoting Barbaresco
{quote} I can see setting up a probability to reverse or continue a known break, i.e. left-side formed - by varying the right side as time marches on and/or looking into the future, since the probability exhibits logarithmic decay. However, this is essentially using TZ's as resistance, and EURUSDD warned against this. The premise, knowing the probability of a TZ being cleared in x,y,z time, means one may trade towards or away from the zone. How to go from this to calling a specific target that is not itself a TZ, with accurate probability based...
Lol, this pretty much summarizes my whole experience with trading. But to your point, we really have no idea how EURUSDD comes up with his predictions. I imagine it's more than 1 chart, 1 tf and only TZ's. For instance, he premised the discussion on TZ's by saying it was the first of 7 steps to making price our biatch... or, something like that.

I've been racking my brain to find the magic in one TF and 1 chart and TZ's only, but am starting to wonder if more must be incorporated to unlock full potential.
  • #10,092
  • Edited 9:34pm Oct 8, 2014 8:24pm | Edited 9:34pm
Quoting leeshindig
{quote} Any talk of interest rates and the dollar will go nuts.. be aware!
You are right mate. My SL was hit. some orders were profit, so it is still ok. Order made during FOMC are a "gambling" one, not based on TRZ or other indicators

@house,
Is this the end of USD strength ??
  • #10,093
  • Oct 8, 2014 9:03pm Oct 8, 2014 9:03pm
Quoting VVizlan
{quote} Lol, this pretty much summarizes my whole experience with trading. But to your point, we really have no idea how EURUSDD comes up with his predictions. I imagine it's more than 1 chart, 1 tf and only TZ's. For instance, he premised the discussion on TZ's by saying it was the first of 7 steps to making price our biatch... or, something like that. I've been racking my brain to find the magic in one TF and 1 chart and TZ's only, but am starting to wonder if more must be incorporated to unlock full potential.
I was referring to FXJay and a few others who are able to do it as I had described. Granted, they aren't doing it with the precision of EURUSDD, as they hold much more than 10 pts DD on some trades, but it would be nice to see what they see as a starting point.

If one were to map a river of price based on TZ probabilities over time, or DS zones over time, etc., we run into the same issues. In a trending market, all of the probabilities that hadn't decayed to lim~0 would be against price action. There must be something that many of us aren't seeing.
  • #10,094
  • Oct 9, 2014 1:32am Oct 9, 2014 1:32am
There is a zone around 2765. At TF H4, it is not yet COBB, but @H1 we can see COBB. May be it will go down a little, before reach 2765.
Similarity can change your life !
  • #10,095
  • Oct 9, 2014 1:41am Oct 9, 2014 1:41am
Quoting jackprobe
There is a zone around 2765. At TF H4, it is not yet COBB, but @H1 we can see COBB. May be it will go down a little, before reach 2765.
JACKPROBE what is the meaning of COBB
  • #10,096
  • Oct 9, 2014 2:34am Oct 9, 2014 2:34am
Quoting jackprobe
There is a zone around 2765. At TF H4, it is not yet COBB, but @H1 we can see COBB. May be it will go down a little, before reach 2765.
Done
Similarity can change your life !
  • #10,097
  • Edited 7:22am Oct 9, 2014 2:37am | Edited 7:22am
Quoting wealthpro
{quote} JACKPROBE what is the meaning of COBB
COBB is "Closed Outside Bohlinger Band" , i learned this from Vlady. I forget at what page it is, try to look at his posts. Vlady gave some images about this.
Similarity can change your life !
  • #10,098
  • Edited 10:03am Oct 9, 2014 5:01am | Edited 10:03am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Bulls have taken over for the short term. yesterdays move was suprising
No more suprised with current price action. Bulls in control. Buying dips except things change
  • #10,099
  • Oct 9, 2014 5:08am Oct 9, 2014 5:08am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} No more suprised with current price action. Bulls in control. Buying dips expect things change
so you expect EUR going down?
  • #10,100
  • Oct 9, 2014 6:44am Oct 9, 2014 6:44am
Quoting hoss
{quote} Thank you very much kprsa and Vlady. I'm long on NZD to 7964 and CHF short to 9440. From the longer term charts.
NZD complete, just waiting on the CHF.
Life is too short to have anything but delusional notions about yourself.
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