It's easy to win & even easier to lose
Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow
- #722
- Oct 9, 2014 6:45am Oct 9, 2014 6:45am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,102 Posts | Online Now
Fdax (5 min.)
Let's see if we have a falling wedge situation here..
Happy Trades
Let's see if we have a falling wedge situation here..
Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #723
- Oct 9, 2014 6:59am Oct 9, 2014 6:59am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,102 Posts | Online Now
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #726
- Oct 9, 2014 7:09am Oct 9, 2014 7:09am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,102 Posts | Online Now
Focus only on what truly matters!
In the main I trade Dax fairly well on m5, using techniques such as fractal breaks (meaning breaks of support and resistance in the moving time frame). Also having regard to Elliott Waves using Awesome Oscillator or e-waves.
However one of my failings is to get out of winning trades too early, and it has cost me a lot of potential pips over the years. Ever so many!
Recently I noticed something fairly magic about Dax. It doesn't work quite so well with currency forex.
Using m1. Draw simple moving average 180 bars (equating to 3 hours). I have seen that in the main when price goes the other side of this line it is a trend change which seems to frequently run for up to 100 pips (when like today the market is moving nicely). And that the trigger for this is another MA of about 25.
This equates roughly with the wave on AO for an M5 chart, but if I follow the 25ma until it turns round again fairly near the 180 ma it is actually giving me the vast majority of available pips. And probably still holding me through wave 4 until the bigger impulse of a fifth
Last night on FOMC I made over 70, (wanted to close before 2100 London time), on a long. This morning after 0800 London time I made nearly 40 on another long, and after 1000 I went short, could have made 100 but came out early as had other things to do. So that would have added up to over 200 pips in 3 trades!!
I'm trying to attach a picture. I think it's a strategy worthy of some discussion.
However one of my failings is to get out of winning trades too early, and it has cost me a lot of potential pips over the years. Ever so many!
Recently I noticed something fairly magic about Dax. It doesn't work quite so well with currency forex.
Using m1. Draw simple moving average 180 bars (equating to 3 hours). I have seen that in the main when price goes the other side of this line it is a trend change which seems to frequently run for up to 100 pips (when like today the market is moving nicely). And that the trigger for this is another MA of about 25.
This equates roughly with the wave on AO for an M5 chart, but if I follow the 25ma until it turns round again fairly near the 180 ma it is actually giving me the vast majority of available pips. And probably still holding me through wave 4 until the bigger impulse of a fifth
Last night on FOMC I made over 70, (wanted to close before 2100 London time), on a long. This morning after 0800 London time I made nearly 40 on another long, and after 1000 I went short, could have made 100 but came out early as had other things to do. So that would have added up to over 200 pips in 3 trades!!
I'm trying to attach a picture. I think it's a strategy worthy of some discussion.
- #728
- Oct 9, 2014 7:16am Oct 9, 2014 7:16am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,102 Posts | Online Now
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #729
- Oct 9, 2014 7:19am Oct 9, 2014 7:19am
- | Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Relaxed | 1,141 Posts
I'm come to the conclusion DAX tends to range this time of day (after the first couple of hours of action) Stay out until the yanks wake up?
Just goes to show 'never listen to idiots on the internet'
Cut your losers, run your winners (keep repeating until you turn into a zombie) <looking for a zombie smiley now
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
- #730
- Oct 9, 2014 7:22am Oct 9, 2014 7:22am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,102 Posts | Online Now
{quote} whoops sorry bad advice, could have had a good short earlier
so yeah listen a lot but follow your own decisions...Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #731
- Oct 9, 2014 7:22am Oct 9, 2014 7:22am
- Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 19,871 Posts
The gap from yesterdays evening close is now closed... Who knows from here but after this amount of selling we could / Should see a bounce up.... Iether way my short is now closed.
sould have kept my short. "hätte hätte fahrradkette"fomc minutes just looked not that impressive to me yesterday, now i´m even more confident with this impression.
dax is in a downtrend, singing the economic blues, cyclical papers are among the biggest losers since the correction started.
i think we will see a test of the august low, soon.
fortis fortuna adiuvat
- #733
- Oct 9, 2014 7:26am Oct 9, 2014 7:26am
- Joined May 2014 | Status: Full Time Trader | 27,102 Posts | Online Now
We are going down down down.. 
.....but wtf? Oh dax is playing with me today.. it's better I go out and watch the clouds for a while 
Happy Trades
.....but wtf? Oh dax is playing with me today.. it's better I go out and watch the clouds for a while Happy Trades
Focus only on what truly matters!
- #734
- Oct 9, 2014 7:32am Oct 9, 2014 7:32am
- | Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Relaxed | 1,141 Posts
In the main I trade Dax fairly well on m5, using techniques such as fractal breaks (meaning breaks of support and resistance in the moving time frame). Also having regard to Elliott Waves using Awesome Oscillator or e-waves. However one of my failings is to get out of winning trades too early, and it has cost me a lot of potential pips over the years. Ever so many! Recently I noticed something fairly magic about Dax. It doesn't work quite so well with currency forex. Using m1. Draw simple moving average 180 bars (equating to 3 hours). I have seen...
I appreciate your time to post your analysis but I can't see how MAs can predict future prices? maybe it's just me being a stubborn old @sshole and having a thing against MAs
The point here is that when the DAX moves it can move big, so like I said earlier, just cut them losers and run those winners boy (and any girls here)!!!
OK a bounce up from here was 'highly probable' as it was support yesterday morning? Maybe I'm trying to convince myself that 'absolute values' are more important than all these indicators that I see people using as a 'crutch' far too often?
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
- #736
- Oct 9, 2014 7:39am Oct 9, 2014 7:39am
- Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 19,871 Posts
fortis fortuna adiuvat
- #737
- Oct 9, 2014 7:39am Oct 9, 2014 7:39am
- | Joined Aug 2014 | Status: Relaxed | 1,141 Posts
and when everyone is convinced with down ......... they start to left it up !
Guys I am due to ship out of my 'current location', if anybody is interested in setting up a syndicate 'anywhere in Europe' I am interested. I can provide a six figure starting capital and I'm confident of becoming a millionaire in less than 3 years
used to be undecided but nowadays can't make my mind up
- #738
- Oct 9, 2014 7:47am Oct 9, 2014 7:47am
- Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 19,871 Posts
fortis fortuna adiuvat
- #740
- Oct 9, 2014 7:54am Oct 9, 2014 7:54am
- Joined Nov 2013 | Status: Made in Germany | 19,871 Posts
{quote} Like I said dude, yesterday's support, easy 40 pips
fortis fortuna adiuvat