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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #48,861
  • Oct 7, 2014 7:28pm Oct 7, 2014 7:28pm
Quoting yeniful
in 2 years the yen will be at 130+ MARK MY WORD
At 105 I'll enter long for long term. Short term now: short.

It could go even higher than 150, you're not crazy.
  • #48,862
  • Oct 7, 2014 7:40pm Oct 7, 2014 7:40pm
there is a hedge fund that has 65 billion in management and currently has a long position on the yen. My uncle who is an investor in the fund told me that the hedge fund is planning on adding more to their long. The fund is part of the BrevanHoward Hedge Fund management group based in the Cayman Islands.
I am under the assumption that many billion dollar funds are going long on the yen and have been for a while
  • #48,863
  • Oct 7, 2014 7:52pm Oct 7, 2014 7:52pm
There are too many flamboyant buffoons in this forum
  • #48,864
  • Oct 7, 2014 8:04pm Oct 7, 2014 8:04pm
Quoting yeniful
individual traders aren't affecting the rates on the yen or any currency in general. It's the banks and the institutions and hedge funds with billions of dollars who are moving the rates. When you say the Asians are driving the yen stronger its incorrect. The funds all over the world are on the yen weakening actually. Some of the biggest funds right now hold long positions in the yen and have since it was at 101 area. Daily trends are meaningless in foreign exchange. The monthly charts show the yen going up and I don't see any changes until a massive...
When i say asian i meant asian session, and everyone should know tha its the big boys moving the market, anyone who thinks its us should learn the basics :nerd:

LONG!
  • #48,865
  • Oct 7, 2014 8:20pm Oct 7, 2014 8:20pm
So it turned out to be a good idea going long at 108,
The 9 pm et rush will always show you the way the market will be going for the day.
Market makers seem to be pushing price down from certain price levels in order to maintain a range without letting buyers push the price up so high and so quickly
  • #48,866
  • Oct 7, 2014 8:37pm Oct 7, 2014 8:37pm
Quoting yeniful
there is a hedge fund that has 65 billion in management and currently has a long position on the yen. My uncle who is an investor in the fund told me that the hedge fund is planning on adding more to their long. The fund is part of the BrevanHoward Hedge Fund management group based in the Cayman Islands. I am under the assumption that many billion dollar funds are going long on the yen and have been for a while

NIIIICEEEE
  • #48,867
  • Oct 7, 2014 11:51pm Oct 7, 2014 11:51pm
That daily pivot (108.35) is really setting the tone for such an indecisive session.
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  • #48,868
  • Oct 8, 2014 12:07am Oct 8, 2014 12:07am
Quoting pohchuan
The bull is trying hard to stay above 108. Lets see if the Asian market will offer a lifting hand ......or will they continue to remain emotional and sell their pants.


So far so good for the bull at the asian market.......lets see what the Euro & London market have for the bull.
  • #48,869
  • Oct 8, 2014 12:28am Oct 8, 2014 12:28am
Quoting yeniful
individual traders aren't affecting the rates on the yen or any currency in general. It's the banks and the institutions and hedge funds with billions of dollars who are moving the rates. When you say the Asians are driving the yen stronger its incorrect. The funds all over the world are on the yen weakening actually. Some of the biggest funds right now hold long positions in the yen and have since it was at 101 area. Daily trends are meaningless in foreign exchange. The monthly charts show the yen going up and I don't see any...

holding long positions in the yen actually means keeping short UJ. I guess you mean long positions in $/yen if you're expecting levels >130 ? if yen is going up then we should really expect levels under 100.
"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #48,870
  • Oct 8, 2014 12:42am Oct 8, 2014 12:42am
this is bullish..and not UJ friendly. also there's LH and LL at H4 chart at UJ. added a small size long at 108.48 and will keep it till 109 because I expect some correction to upside, after that point who knows but somehow i think that a top at 110 is formed here. just look at the indexes and UJ have positive correlation with Nikkei and S&P.
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"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #48,871
  • Oct 8, 2014 12:54am Oct 8, 2014 12:54am
Quoting yeniful
there is a hedge fund that has 65 billion in management and currently has a long position on the yen. My uncle who is an investor in the fund told me that the hedge fund is planning on adding more to their long. The fund is part of the BrevanHoward Hedge Fund management group based in the Cayman Islands. I am under the assumption that many billion dollar funds are going long on the yen and have been for a while
I suspect you mean long UJ, and that is slightly comforting because it means that there is a lot of money in the same direction as me.

If you really mean long Yen then that is even more comforting. One day they will unload their long Yen positions and UJ should fly.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #48,872
  • Oct 8, 2014 1:03am Oct 8, 2014 1:03am
stocks/bonds ratio, it's showing a defense is more valuable now. usually not good for UJ. the resume is ( together with my previous post) that I'm not betting on crash here but big caution for longs. I'm long term bull, 130 or 150..you name it.
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"The secret of politics? Make a good treaty with Russia." Otto von Bismarck
  • #48,873
  • Oct 8, 2014 1:12am Oct 8, 2014 1:12am
Quoting Trendzalore
{quote} Stopped out. I still think this is a shake out. But I am out now. Will just watch how it plays out.
Commiserations.

I too am long from 108.44
I believe that if you enter based upon looking at levels then you should leave a wider stop, or use some other strategy.

If you look at the 4hr chart you can see that 108 is an obvious support, and therefore the market rogues are going to try to test the stops of traders just below that level. Which seems to be what happened.

I did not put in another long entry at 108, but my .44 position has now come back to profit so I am watching carefully.
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
  • #48,874
  • Oct 8, 2014 1:41am Oct 8, 2014 1:41am
108.5 retest area for potential medium reversal.
  • #48,875
  • Oct 8, 2014 2:03am Oct 8, 2014 2:03am
FOMC meeting minutes release tonight of any importance for market movement? and thoughts?
  • #48,876
  • Oct 8, 2014 3:15am Oct 8, 2014 3:15am
Quoting kweiss10
FOMC meeting minutes release tonight of any importance for market movement? and thoughts?
Minutes never do anything, they just reiterate what's already been said in press conferences. But it will probably still provide an excuse to buy, at least for the short term.
  • #48,877
  • Oct 8, 2014 3:52am Oct 8, 2014 3:52am
Bull testing 107.99 again before Tokyo closes for the day.
  • #48,878
  • Oct 8, 2014 7:00am Oct 8, 2014 7:00am
Quoting Exodus
{quote} Commiserations. I too am long from 108.44 I believe that if you enter based upon looking at levels then you should leave a wider stop, or use some other strategy. If you look at the 4hr chart you can see that 108 is an obvious support, and therefore the market rogues are going to try to test the stops of traders just below that level. Which seems to be what happened. I did not put in another long entry at 108, but my .44 position has now come back to profit so I am watching carefully.
Agreed I should have known better. Looked like solid demand there that I thought would hold. When it failed then my trade idea failed so its ok with me. Depending on my risk tolerance I will set my stop. I didnt want to have to wide a stop on an FOMC news beforehand.
  • #48,879
  • Oct 8, 2014 7:34am Oct 8, 2014 7:34am
IMHO, the pair is more in favor of the downside than the otherwise case as per the descending trend line. A break of 107.50 can cause the pair to decline towards 105.50 levels. However, a break of 108.50 can re-fuel it towards 110.
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  • #48,880
  • Oct 8, 2014 8:33am Oct 8, 2014 8:33am
Looking bleak right now but I took a Binary trade looking for the pair to touch 109.25. If it gets anywhere near that by friday I will have a good week.
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