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Disclosing my daily EUR/USD routine

  • #21
  • Oct 3, 2014 10:39am Oct 3, 2014 10:39am
Since 1st week is over - done for trading today - I thought to leave a little update.

The account is up, and that the good news, apart from the friendly competition that what really matters end of the day.
It is too early for conclusions.

Wish you quick recovery on the equity, myfxbook shows that you ran into some larger DD.
Happy weekend!
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #22
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:18am Oct 3, 2014 11:18am
Quoting profitfarmer
Since 1st week is over - done for trading today - I thought to leave a little update. The account is up, and that the good news, apart from the friendly competition that what really matters end of the day. It is too early for conclusions. Wish you quick recovery on the equity, myfxbook shows that you ran into some larger DD. Happy weekend!
Yes indeed!

Wise of you to stay out of EUR/USD today (I saw).

I started September exactly the same and managed to claw my way back out of the hole - let's see what October brings. I admit I have seen it all before and am not changing my routine. But frankly, EUR/USD is misbehaving a bit lately. I'm also in DAX and some other stuff but you sense the volatile nature in Europe at the moment. Great for scalping if you know what you are doing - and it looks like you are.

Nice stats - nice diversion - well done thus far.

Have a great weekend

Thanks and let's keep at it.
  • #23
  • Oct 3, 2014 11:22am Oct 3, 2014 11:22am
I forgot to mention - if you take a historical perspective the USD rallies on the Payroll news but usually bounces right back as if to say, "O maybe that news was not as important after all."

Wishful thinking on my part, but we will see in about 4 hours where we stand.
  • #24
  • Oct 3, 2014 9:33pm Oct 3, 2014 9:33pm
I was about to completely not trade yesterday, then decided to NFP or not, better for the record to have something green.
However I did some practice on the new system I am trying to put together for.
Very promising results so far, 1st day was 7/8, then yesterday 7/7, ...demo testing naturally. But definitely have merit to continue forward testing it newt week, I think.

Your account seem to be back from the DD, I think it will close the day nice.
As for the stand, I have the feeling that I am ahead this week, but then there is a long way to go!
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #25
  • Oct 4, 2014 7:07am Oct 4, 2014 7:07am
Quoting profitfarmer
I was about to completely not trade yesterday, then decided to NFP or not, better for the record to have something green. However I did some practice on the new system I am trying to put together for. Very promising results so far, 1st day was 7/8, then yesterday 7/7, ...demo testing naturally. But definitely have merit to continue forward testing it newt week, I think. Your account seem to be back from the DD, I think it will close the day nice. As for the stand, I have the feeling that I am ahead this week, but then there is a long way to go!
No, I have that trade still open, look at the white line. I just needed to adjust the TP because my indicator told me so and because the new TP did not hit yet the trade is carried over. I will need to close a 150 pip gap this month. Last month it was a 180 pip gap on a 214 pip swing and I finished just below the line at -36pips and had to adjust my trade size slightly.

Extraordinary times. It is during these times I count my blessings as I can "Get up - and back away from the trading station". I only need to be in about 5 minutes a day. Staring at your DD is not going to help - you need to look forward to your next trade and feel the tranquility of NOT having to rush in and juggle with SL. No hedging - no - quick let's trade something else - Just this. Each and every day.

Like I said to one of my students - nice timing for disclosure huh? Could I go down in flames? Sure - that is possible. But the statistics are on my side. Whatever happens I promise to remain right here and continue trading this public demo for at least the rest of this year so we can see the outcome of our challenge and check my prediction. You simply do not abandon a Ferrari because it has a flat tire.

A long way to go, like you said, but you are not introducing a new system in your trading are you?

Don't you want to win? (just taunting you)
  • #26
  • Oct 4, 2014 9:17am Oct 4, 2014 9:17am
Quote
Don't you want to win?

Not really matters, honestly. A challenge is good, is stimulating. If I would really want to go for the winning, I would set my demo account vs. your demo, and not my live, where I trade slightly differently, as I try to take higher probability set ups, while on demo it might be slightly more deliberate about position size, or the entry itself, and take some trades when it is more gut feeling then my 'strong' entry signals. Interestingly, since the demo is faring lot better then the live, maybe I should follow the same route, lol.
You probably not recall, but I had a demo account to show, it is about 1 month old now, went from $300 to $800 in this 30 days...about +170%...

Quote
A long way to go, like you said, but you are not introducing a new system in your trading are you?

Not intending to do so, not yet the least. It will need testing, and probably to move back to ECN as well, due the spread. It is also scalping, but a different approach to what I use now...although it is also a single indicator system.

Quote
You simply do not abandon a Ferrari because it has a flat tire.
I might abandon my Ferrari with a flat tire, for a Ferrari with good tires...there is always room for improvement, one way or another.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #27
  • Oct 5, 2014 1:31pm Oct 5, 2014 1:31pm
You gotta love disclosure.

During a training session yesterday I discovered that my numbers as posted in the original post on the first page are off. Some a lot some less. The trader I was talking to used FXCM so I cheerfully said "Great! We can then do any month you like on the 1H, so tell me..." Well we started doing oct 2013 with the intention to do a few months. Set up indicators as I told him etc. Then started... and finished with 29,85% equity gain. "That's more than you said.." Eehh is it? Yes, it should be 20,4%. Hold on. O. Nice! But obviously my balls shrunk a little. We did november too and it produced 5,55%, not 6,9%.

At that point I said I would look into it after, and I did. My student wasn't too bothered but I must have these stats correct because - well it has to be. So then I knew I had no choice but to see what was what. Sure enough, being lazy I used an old script to get some quick equity stats and it was WRONG. A wrong version. Sweet lord. Now what - ok using the right version and post? I don't think so. Now I have no choice but to go through the data using pen and paper.

I'd rather go to the dentist to be honest. So I did all last night up until this morning. Went through it twice for each month.

Here are the results, posted as follows.

Month - Original - Script - Eye
If anything trust the eye.
OCT 2013 ---- 20.4% ---- 28.1% ---- 29.9%
NOV 2013 ---- 06.9% ---- 05.5% ---- 05.6%
DEC 2013 ---- 33.8% ---- 39.4% ---- 39.8%
JAN 2014 ---- 48.5% ---- -5,1% ---- -4.6%
FEB 2014 ---- 16.1% ---- 17.8% ---- 18.2%
MAR 2014 ---- 20.1% ---- 02.6% ---- 02.9%
APR 2014 ---- 42.6% ---- 45.2% ---- 45.6%
MAY 2014 ---- 06.9% ---- -7.9% ---- -8.4%
JUN 2014 ---- 00.6% ---- 05.9% ---- 05.7%
JUL 2014 ---- 24.9% ---- 20.9% ---- 20.3%
AUG 2014 ---- 04.8% ---- 11.8% ---- 11.3%

And September ended with 1.8%.

Meaning equity flow is as follows for every 1000 equity starting at OCT 2013 up until 1 OCT 2014

Start -> New gross -> New net -> Bank -> Bank total

1000 -> 1298 -> 1150 -> 148 -> 148
1150 -> 1214 -> 1185 -> 029 -> 177
1185 -> 1656 -> 1420 -> 236 -> 413
1420 -> 1350 -> 1350 -> 000 -> 413
1350 -> 1595 -> 1470 -> 125 -> 538
1470 -> 1512 -> 1490 -> 022 -> 560
1490 -> 2169 -> 1830 -> 339 -> 899
1830 -> 1676 -> 1676 -> 000 -> 899
1676 -> 1772 -> 1720 -> 052 -> 951
1720 -> 2068 -> 1890 -> 178 -> 1129
1890 -> 2103 -> 1995 -> 108 -> 1237
1995 -> 2031 -> 2010 -> 021 -> 1258

Meaning an absolute gain of 2010 + 1258 - 1000 = 2268.

That´s an absolute ROI% gain of 226.8% or an average of 18.9% a month with the worst DD month being -8.4%.

Better than advertised I would say.

Ok but I am now so tired I cannot see straight. Will edit the original post later - but leave the wrong numbers too. Also the questions of money management and why I use it I will answer later by email. Also just mail me if you find any deviation of > 0.5% in these. If you do I should probably buy you and yours a steak dinner.

First I am going to sleep befiore the market opens. I fully expect to be punished for this but at least I hope to take away the concerns raised. No regrets on my side whatsoever starting this disclosure project - I love it - but it is just a little more work than I expected.

Have at it - see you guys later.
  • #28
  • Oct 6, 2014 10:18am Oct 6, 2014 10:18am
hi

keeping a good stat is important. this TE also does a decent job here for me.
it is too bad that today it had little to do so far, one tiny scalp only, because the price action doesn't give the set ups//entry situations I am looking for, and there is no need to force a trade when there isn't one of my way of scalping. live account, less willingness for risk.

on the other hand, new system is faring very good once again, today also toyed around a bit with trailing SL there...not necessarily for the better, but it is demo, and learning the ropes, as forward testing goes.
put up a statement from the results to my journey thread, in case you like to have a look...

once again, I see that you have a fight with DD, with you a quick recovery. It sure takes off the pressure from me to trade today, though
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #29
  • Oct 7, 2014 8:44am Oct 7, 2014 8:44am
Quoting profitfarmer
hi keeping a good stat is important. this TE also does a decent job here for me. it is too bad that today it had little to do so far, one tiny scalp only, because the price action doesn't give the set ups//entry situations I am looking for, and there is no need to force a trade when there isn't one of my way of scalping. live account, less willingness for risk. on the other hand, new system is faring very good once again, today also toyed around a bit with trailing SL there...not necessarily for the better, but it is demo, and learning the ropes,...
Glad to see you are doing well....

As far as the DD. Well, I AM using the maximum of 40% trade size so theoretically I can expect that much as a draw down. My max is 33% which I am dangerously approaching but again it is a choice. You can choose to lower the draw dawn risk but that will lower your average gains. e.g. 30% would mean a 12% average gain, not 15% with a max expected draw down of 24.75%.

Still here though. Even though the audience is probably shrinking. Let's hope I do not need to do a mid month trade size adjustment (-50%) that has never happened, but it might because if you trade long enough you may even find that pattern.

Whatever happens I am not going anywhere - certainly not now.
  • #30
  • Oct 7, 2014 9:06am Oct 7, 2014 9:06am
DD is part of the game, so, as long as it is kept in control, it is OK.

I am not really sure why, but this week I just seem to trade a bit more carefully then usually, ie. taking a bit smaller sizes, and be quite quick to close positions, before they could reach the full target. But that is also art of scalping, having multiple small gains. No homeruns here, and probably wont see any later neither.
However, I still believe that 10% return is a possibility for this week, which I will be content with.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #31
  • Oct 7, 2014 11:53am Oct 7, 2014 11:53am
Quoting profitfarmer
DD is part of the game, so, as long as it is kept in control, it is OK. I am not really sure why, but this week I just seem to trade a bit more carefully then usually, ie. taking a bit smaller sizes, and be quite quick to close positions, before they could reach the full target. But that is also art of scalping, having multiple small gains. No homeruns here, and probably wont see any later neither. However, I still believe that 10% return is a possibility for this week, which I will be content with.
That's prudent. For me, as I have taken a long term mechanical approach that is not possible unless I hit equity limits. Taking emotion out of the trading was a big step forward for me. I simply could not watch my trades because my blood pressure became directly linked to spikes in pricing it seemed.
  • #32
  • Oct 7, 2014 12:22pm Oct 7, 2014 12:22pm
Since scalping is s short time affair, I guess that takes out some of the emotion...don't leave time for blood pressure to go thru the roof
The longest position took today about 19 min., the shortest 1min 20sec...
I am not into ultra anything, so, plenty time between the trades to buy groceries,make dinner, watch movie, read forum, etc.
Still have few trades here and there, and watch about 2x as many opportunities pass, mostly right into my expectation, due being selective, or waiting for that 1 more pip to pull the trigger.
Done for today, I think, though yesterday also missed out the later NY session when there was some move I could trade. But today is green, again, the account is flat...blood pressure normal
Sorry for the tease!
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #33
  • Edited 1:30pm Oct 8, 2014 10:16am | Edited 1:30pm
Another trading day is about to end here.
I see that for a change your equity started to rise assume it should be rising faster than it fell, am I right?
As for me, an uneventful trading day, but managed 8/8 with very tiny DD. And most importantly, it is another green day. Happy.
Do you only check on positions once a day, or when not committed to a trade yet, do you spend more time online?

update: since the movie lasted just about the right time to watch the FOMC news, decided to wait and see how it is.
it worth the waiting...
if you had some longs prior, this should help a bit. me, just a scalper, it was only in-out with few positions after the spread and the sluggishness settled a bit to be tradable.
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #34
  • Oct 10, 2014 8:42am Oct 10, 2014 8:42am
hello Spike Surfer!

you seem to disappear the last few days, hope all is fine there. As per your myfxbook page, I can see your position/balance pretty much stuck in the same place.

As for me, had a good week, and now done with trading for the rest of the day.
The broker's trade only bonus add on deluted a bit my real profit%, but even like this, it is nothing to feel shamed of.
I even managed to get ranked on FF live accounts, lol.
this is the weekly
#82http://resources.forexfactory.net/im...ault_16x16.png profitfarmer 30.9%
there is always, always another trade!!
  • #35
  • Oct 10, 2014 9:16am Oct 10, 2014 9:16am
Quoting profitfarmer
hello Spike Surfer! you seem to disappear the last few days, hope all is fine there. As per your myfxbook page, I can see your position/balance pretty much stuck in the same place. As for me, had a good week, and now done with trading for the rest of the day. The broker's trade only bonus add on deluted a bit my real profit%, but even like this, it is nothing to feel shamed of. I even managed to get ranked on FF live accounts, lol. this is the weekly #82{image} profitfarmer 30.9%
Great performance profitfarmer. so far you are doing very well in the challenge.

SpikeSurfer, i just read this thread. I see you have developed this method using backtests. I see you have engineering background so thats is why i am asking this (for most other folks here i wouldnt have bothered because i know they wouldnt really understand - i once asked this on Kathy Lien's session and she just didnt have a clue. even went on to say we have a great backtest system we optimize every parameter to maximize backtest performance - she was totally clueless about the issues involved).

How did you avoid overfitting/curve fitting/data mining/snooping bias (whatever you call it) in your backtests? that is the key when doing backtests. Check this paper http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=2308659 to see how overfitting is so hard to avoid.
Think : Trade : Live Life
  • #36
  • Oct 30, 2014 1:00pm Oct 30, 2014 1:00pm
Quoting profitfarmer
hello Spike Surfer! you seem to disappear the last few days, hope all is fine there. As per your myfxbook page, I can see your position/balance pretty much stuck in the same place. As for me, had a good week, and now done with trading for the rest of the day. The broker's trade only bonus add on deluted a bit my real profit%, but even like this, it is nothing to feel shamed of. I even managed to get ranked on FF live accounts, lol. this is the weekly #82{image} profitfarmer 30.9%

Still here! Still trading this account as promised until Christmas.

Man I have just been too busy with MT4. Like I said before I was biased in not using it but I was convinced to give it another try and glad I did. I ported all my old hedging ideas straight into FXCM UK MT4 and have been working non-stop on serious tests. Looks awesome.

Anything on UK100, FRA40 or GER30 does 100% minimum per 6 months. The only thing stopping me from trading live is having to open an account with this broker - I hate that hassle. I might open another thread in a while so I can give out free demos for those who are allowed to hedge.

Anyway back on topic - yes still here - yes it goes up and down and eventually will average around 15%/month. So can you beat me? Short term maybe, but long term? We will see.

Best of luck and I will try and be more online in here.
  • #37
  • Oct 30, 2014 1:06pm Oct 30, 2014 1:06pm
Quoting stt
{quote} Great performance profitfarmer. so far you are doing very well in the challenge. SpikeSurfer, i just read this thread. I see you have developed this method using backtests. I see you have engineering background so thats is why i am asking this (for most other folks here i wouldnt have bothered because i know they wouldnt really understand - i once asked this on Kathy Lien's session and she just didnt have a clue. even went on to say we have a great backtest system we optimize every parameter to maximize backtest performance - she was totally...

I know exactly what you mean. The shorter the testing period (ticks) the bigger the risk of overfitting. Optimizing parameter after parameter to give optimal results or raising/lowering equity to fit the DD. Yep. Not good.

I'd say use as large number of ticks as available and use averages. Remember the markets are ever evolving. What worked pre-2008 might not work today. Why? Well my best guess is new players, more retail, more HVT (or less). Different players - different minds.

That is why a back test project only has value if it has at least a 10% period of forward testing in it. To me that is hard, because for long term strategies like mine building up forward test results is a long, very long process.
  • #38
  • Oct 30, 2014 1:11pm Oct 30, 2014 1:11pm
I forgot to mention if you do an optimization run - do ALL parameters at once.

Yes it will run forever but at least you will not be stretching parameters in the wrong direction.

Also I saw this: Probability of overfitting: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...59&alg=1&pos=1

Thanks for your link - very interesting.
  • #39
  • Nov 3, 2014 10:38pm Nov 3, 2014 10:38pm
October was a nice month to start a demo contest - NOT.

Anyway back in the green. I may even call for Chinese takeout now. Yay.

Still with us profitfarmer?
  • #40
  • Nov 4, 2014 12:00pm Nov 4, 2014 12:00pm
Nice turn around Spike Surfer, looks like your challenger has disappeared....
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