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  • #41,441
  • Sep 26, 2014 2:03pm Sep 26, 2014 2:03pm
Quoting robuk
I wonder if there is any hope for me !! 3 short trades taken on GA today ( which went down 130 pips today ) and I managed :- a loss of 25, a BE , ( which at one point was over 30 pips in profit ), and another loss of 30 .. Total minus 55 Ahem...... rather less than magnificent so , any struggling traders , don't give up , you are not alone Edit . I did manage +7 pips from EA which went down over 100 {image}
Hi Robuk, don't despair, you're not alone, we've all been there and oftentimes still are. Looking at the positive, you got the direction right. All you've got to do is look at the decisions you made that didn't make the trades turn out profitable. Best advice I can offer is for you to look at the pdf's of Phx62 in the paper-clip folder at the top of the page. There are about four I believe. You may have already looked at them but if so look at them again and again, you can't look at them to often, they are a master-class in trading technique. If you haven' seen them then you've got a treat. Get his method hammered into your head. Good luck with your trading.
  • #41,442
  • Sep 26, 2014 2:30pm Sep 26, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting TheScorpS
Some months ago, or a year ago, Phx62 posted a Gold hourly chart trading TMS, do any traders have this chart, I am looking for it, I am not sure if its in the books, I dont see them there, so if anyone has that can you post it? Thanks and would like to study that chart over the weekend
Found this one: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ld#post6944431
  • #41,443
  • Sep 26, 2014 2:46pm Sep 26, 2014 2:46pm
Quoting Tanglewood
{quote} Hi Robuk, don't despair, you're not alone, we've all been there and oftentimes still are. Looking at the positive, you got the direction right. All you've got to do is look at the decisions you made that didn't make the trades turn out profitable. Best advice I can offer is for you to look at the pdf's of Phx62 in the paper-clip folder at the top of the page. There are about four I believe. You may have already looked at them but if so look at them again and again, you can't look at them to often, they are a master-class in trading technique....
Hi Tanglewood ,Thanks very much for your reply , I really appreciate any help, I work so hard at Forex and know I am slooooooowly getting better.
I have looked at Phx62 pdf's many times , but ,..... and this will probably sound a bit silly , I kind of feel completely overawed by them , that man is such a genius , I know I could never aspire to reach anything like his levels , so in a way I'd sooner study someones work who is maybe about half as good first , because that would be easier for me to understand and more than good enough for me .
Now reading what I have just typed , I'm sure these statements sound absolutely ridiculous but there is no other way I can describe it , so I will try again to study Phx62 , and everything else that may help.
As regards those abysmal trades of mine today , I've kept looking at them and noticed if I had about a 50 pips SL they would have been OK , nowhere near good , but OK
Also it always seems to me that any gbp trades seem to fly up and down more , makes me wonder if gbp is manipulated more than others .
  • #41,444
  • Sep 26, 2014 3:53pm Sep 26, 2014 3:53pm
These charts are after the fact, but I wanted to show how I am approaching my analysis with a "whole picture" or "top-down" look. First of all, I need to preface this with the fact that I am more inclined to the shorter term, which in itself puts me contrary to the initial approach of this thread. I know that the majority here trade the H1 and up and Big E said he didn't like shorter time frames (actually, he said hate, to be more precise). However, he also said on post #1, "I wanted a method that was simple, worked on all timeframes, simple rules, few indicators...." With that in mind and knowing that there are shorter time frame traders on this thread, I feel that this is a reasonable approach. I could get into the advantages and disadvantages of short term vs. long term charts but that is a subject of whole separate post.

So on to the analysis:

Starting with the H4 chart. Keep in mind that as I noted on the chart, the big bar that really made this look like a good short had not totally formed when I was first looking this. However the point here is the rejection yesterday of the moving averages, the daily TDI was clearly green below red, and although it was still forming the bar, the H4 TDI was "opening up" (green going below red). Stochastic is moving down and not yet oversold.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU H4 09_26.png Size: 56 KB


Next I move to the H1 chart. Here we have a good downward slope of the green TDI line cutting thrrough the red and the yellow. The H4 TDI-MTF shows confirmation of what I observed on my H4 analysis. Stochastic is definately going in the right direction, but is not yet oversold. Finally, we do have a good trend in place according to the wonderful dashboard in the upper right hand corner (thank you to whomever shared that indicator in the tread).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU H1 09_26.png Size: 45 KB


Moving to the M15 chart, we see the great looking dashboard again. We have the nice red slope of the red TDI line. The TDI-MTF(H1) confirms my observation from the higher time frame. I also like that the Stochastic was over sold but moved back up a bit and turned down sharply. Yes, this is technically a bounce trade, since the original TDI cross was about six candles prior, but we didn't have all of the higher time frame confirmation and we were muddled in a bit of a moving average mess as well. Took this for 40 pips and could have been more like 50.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GU M15 09_26.png Size: 63 KB


Thanks TheScorpS and Likica for what you have shared on here. I'm sure you recognize my chart setup. I only slightly tweaked it with a slight variation.

Thanks Lastingwell for all you do on the thread.

Thanks to all who have contributed. It is a great thread.

I look forward to hearing feedback. It is helpful in the learning process.

Have a good weekend,

PJ
  • #41,445
  • Sep 26, 2014 6:08pm Sep 26, 2014 6:08pm
Quoting TheScorpS
{quote} Thanks Tanglewood , I think I tried that and will give it a try again Emmanuel, thanks for answering me, I think you have been the Loveeery thread an active trader, never made it in there thread since I was just starting trading at the time I guess I use some of the tips that are discussed in that thread, so that's what am trying to get this indicator to shows all time frame, and not just whats there at the moment, I need to be aware of all time frame from M1 to Monthly I think Loveery is long gone otherwise I would definitely pm him , never...
TheScorpsS,

I made that 10EMA dashboard back then for LE1 aka Arjun for his M15 trading.
If you have any specificatins for a dashboard for TMS 4H trading, let me know. I do have a personal one which I use.

Regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #41,446
  • Sep 26, 2014 6:18pm Sep 26, 2014 6:18pm
Quoting robuk
I wonder if there is any hope for me !! 3 short trades taken on GA today ( which went down 130 pips today ) and I managed :- a loss of 25, a BE , ( which at one point was over 30 pips in profit ), and another loss of 30 .. Total minus 55 Ahem...... rather less than magnificent so , any struggling traders , don't give up , you are not alone Edit . I did manage +7 pips from EA which went down over 100 {image}
Rob,

Both GA and EA are in consolidation range and the previous days' candles were obvious. Morevover it is approaching month end and both pairs are at key historical S&R levels.
Trading H1 is more difficult to catch the huge pips we all expect. It is like having to pick tops and bottoms for our entries which is high risk and requires exceptional trading skills.
Reading what you wrote, I suggest you look more into money management and risk management strategy, position sizing and exit strategy, these combine can help you improve your overall win rate overall long term and also a better Expectancy.

Regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #41,447
  • Sep 26, 2014 6:21pm Sep 26, 2014 6:21pm
Quoting swingdjpj
These charts are after the fact, but I wanted to show how I am approaching my analysis with a "whole picture" or "top-down" look. First of all, I need to preface this with the fact that I am more inclined to the shorter term, which in itself puts me contrary to the initial approach of this thread. I know that the majority here trade the H1 and up and Big E said he didn't like shorter time frames (actually, he said hate, to be more precise). However, he also said on post #1, "I wanted a method that was simple, worked on all timeframes, simple rules,...
PJ,

Good post!
The entire thinking process .
To be a consistent winning trader requires commitment, discipline and meticulous trade execution.

Regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #41,448
  • Sep 26, 2014 6:22pm Sep 26, 2014 6:22pm
Quoting robuk
{quote} Hi Tanglewood ,Thanks very much for your reply , I really appreciate any help, I work so hard at Forex and know I am slooooooowly getting better. I have looked at Phx62 pdf's many times , but ,..... and this will probably sound a bit silly , I kind of feel completely overawed by them , that man is such a genius , I know I could never aspire to reach anything like his levels , so in a way I'd sooner study someones work who is maybe about half as good first , because that would be easier for me to understand and more than good enough for me...

Hi Robuk, yes the currencies are manipulated in the sense that, though you don't see them, everyday the big players, banks etc, have billions of dollars worth of put or call options sitting at various levels above and below the current market level. You can be darn sure that they are going to move the market towards their options, that's how they make their money. You can see that knowing the price level where a particularly large tranche (billions) of options sits is useful to know as it gives you a probable target. This info is available I expect as I used to belong to a trading group that everyday before market open were told the option size and levels.

Regarding the GBP pairs flying up and down. The GBP/JPY for example currently has an ADR (average daily range) of 167. By contrast the EUR/USD ADR is 77. The USD/CHF and EUR/GBP also have lower ADR's. This means the pound is going to move much more than the euro. That's why the better traders trade the pairs with the greatest ADR, they make more pips. Conversely, those of us who are not so good traders stand to lose more, so we need to think in terms of risk control, not how much we can make, but how much we can lose. Good luck with you trading.
  • #41,449
  • Sep 26, 2014 7:51pm Sep 26, 2014 7:51pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} PJ, Good post! The entire thinking process . To be a consistent winning trader requires commitment, discipline and meticulous trade execution. Regards,
Thanks! Yes, it has been the discipline that I have most struggled with. Commitment is there, as you can see by how long I have been a member of FF. Good point on the meticulous trade execution. Often I have caught myself just trading for the sake of trading. The plan now is to have more structure to my trading.
  • #41,450
  • Sep 26, 2014 8:23pm Sep 26, 2014 8:23pm
Quoting lastingwell
{quote} Found this one: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...ld#post6944431
yes lastinwell got it, thanks for you continuous support
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #41,451
  • Sep 26, 2014 8:27pm Sep 26, 2014 8:27pm
[quote=swingdjpj;7765469]

Doing this will make you good pips most of the time, read this post , study the process into taking the trade, try it, do it, fail and do it again, you would make it

Thanks for sharing
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #41,452
  • Sep 27, 2014 2:57am Sep 27, 2014 2:57am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} TheScorpsS, I made that 10EMA dashboard back then for LE1 aka Arjun for his M15 trading. If you have any specificatins for a dashboard for TMS 4H trading, let me know. I do have a personal one which I use. Regards,
Hi

I was thinking about seeing all time frame at once printing M1 M5 M15 M30 H1 H4 D1 W1 MN removing the arrows, and let the color changes prints on the initial itself , I hope thats possible ie above EMA 10 blue initials, below red

Sometime when looking at the indicator itself you find that you get lost looking at the arrows or the initial them self, ie getting mixed up, so combining the 2 in my opinion would solve this issue

Look this pic up , hope am not asking a lot, I think TMS traders would find this helpful since a lot are using the MTF you made

Thanks
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: MTF.jpg Size: 93 KB
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #41,453
  • Sep 27, 2014 5:22am Sep 27, 2014 5:22am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Rob, Both GA and EA are in consolidation range and the previous days' candles were obvious. Morevover it is approaching month end and both pairs are at key historical S&R levels. Trading H1 is more difficult to catch the huge pips we all expect. It is like having to pick tops and bottoms for our entries which is high risk and requires exceptional trading skills. Reading what you wrote, I suggest you look more into money management and risk management strategy, position sizing and exit strategy, these combine can help you improve your overall...
Hi Emm ,
Thanks for your reply and advice, very much appreciated .
The one thing I am doing right is trading only very small amounts ( .01 ) because I do know that even after lots of demo trading and trading these small amounts now for quite a while , I am still nowhere near good enough to trade bigger amounts . So even though I lose mostly , the losses are inconsequential, as at the present rate my account will be wiped out in 8 years ( if I live that long , I am old now ) and hopefully before that time I will improve .
I think one of my main problems is exits , setting stop losses too tight , which is what I did yesterday, but on H4 stop losses become frighteningly large
I really need to backtest more , and don't mind spending the time to do this , but one thing that does concern me is this. How do you know when backtesting what news there may have been at the time when you enter on a really good signal but on the next candle the market turns the wrong way , destroying your trade plan .
That does nothing for your confidence .
  • #41,454
  • Sep 27, 2014 5:36am Sep 27, 2014 5:36am
I was backtesting EU on 4H chart and found something interesting with 10 EMA and 20 EMA using RSI. Hope this will help some of us who tries to take every single cross on the TDI as a trade and misses some good trade opportunities.

Overall EU trend (Bearish)
So we try to find opportunities in short trades
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EU daily trend.png Size: 187 KB


There were total of roughly 18 TDI green and red crosses happened in September so far and not every one of them was a good trade. I have not considered news and other events on these crosses.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD H4 Backtest.png Size: 213 KB


Important things:
1. 10 EMA (RED) is a fast moving average and 20 EMA (Blue) is a slow moving average
2. 10 EMA crosses above 20 EMA, trend change (Upward trend)
3. 10 EMA crosses below 20 EMA, trend change (downward trend)
4. TMS Entry conditions must be met at all times
5. Price action 1st or 2nd candle must closes below 10 EMA for short trade and above 10 EMA for long trade and counter trend trades as well
6. RSI below 50= good for short , RSI above 50= good for long , RSI snailing around 50 is consolidation (Overall trend of the pair must be kept in mind at all times)
7. TDI green cross red in downward direction; red must also be pointing down or making a curve to turn in same direction.
8. TDI green cross red in upward direction; red must also be pointing up or making a curve to turn in same direction.

Results:
Out of 18 crosses total of 7 trades were good enough to make 380 pips on EU 4 Hour in September. I have not considered the last cross (trade 18) yet, it is up to you to decide the entry on 3rd candle.

Trend following crosses (6 total) = Good trade number 3,5,9,11,13,16
Counter trend crosses (10 total) = Good trade number 8 (10ema crosses above 20 ema, RSI above 50, TDI green cross red both in same direction)

Could Trade 6, 12, 14 be a counter trend trade ?
Yes, 6 could be a counter trend trade for 20 pips because of the following reasons.
1. Good TDI cross (Green and red cross in same direction)
2. 1st blue candle crosses above 10EMA
3. RSI is coming from over sold area pointing upward

12 and 14 number trades have the following problems:
1. As the TDI cross happens in trade no. 12 red is pointing downwards, 1st and 2nd blue candle are short and closes below 10 EMA and RSI is still below 50 area
2. Trade no. 14 have the same problems as trade number 12 above

I am open to all the ideas on above backtest. TheScorps, I would appreciate your feedback on 10EMA as I see you use 10EMA in your trading.

Kindest regards
  • #41,455
  • Sep 27, 2014 6:55am Sep 27, 2014 6:55am
Quoting Tanglewood
{quote} Hi Robuk, yes the currencies are manipulated in the sense that, though you don't see them, everyday the big players, banks etc, have billions of dollars worth of put or call options sitting at various levels above and below the current market level. You can be darn sure that they are going to move the market towards their options, that's how they make their money. You can see that knowing the price level where a particularly large tranche (billions) of options sits is useful to know as it gives you a probable target. This info is available...
Hi Tanglewood, Thanks for your reply ,that group you used to belong to sounds extremely useful , are you no longer a member ?

I remember reading (relating to trading ) :- question -- how do you , as David , fight 100 Goliaths
answer --- you don't , you sneak onto the back of one and hitch a ride
  • #41,456
  • Sep 28, 2014 12:58am Sep 28, 2014 12:58am
MrAussieFX

I was thinking over this post since you wrote it down, I need to compile this post into a pdf, its a strategy on its own, I think the conclusion comes only from seeing this happens over and over again, ie comes from experiencing whats written up there, thats what makes a successful trader, searching and trying and finding without changing strategy what makes one improve and the determination behind it , fascinating information, and hard work there , and I really appreciate all the work you have done in posting this information

I have experienced the same , after plotting EMA 10 for a whole year , I once had the EMA 20 on my chart, remove that and kept EMA 10, I use it as a trend following , reversal and consolidation, when PA below that on Daily and H4, I only consider shorts or am very careful in taking long, and when PA closes above EMA 10 on H1, am still very careful in taking long as EMA 20 would still be acting as resistance, even tho its not on my chart but its on my mind, ie PA would be trapped between EMA 10 and EMA 20 but the over all trend is down

The main important tip here as you said that TMS rules is the most important applied rule in the strategy, I think we can discuss ideas that can improve our trading, gives us new perspective, fresh information, new hopes, new ideas so we can continue the learning path, I didn't have the honor to discuss with Big E , but because of all he has done for us, I can say one day am gonna make it, and be successful trader , Rip Big E

Now taking all the information, and thinking about TDI behaviour in trading , consolidation, reversal and applying this to the information you discussed will as I think make very good strategy for taking pips of the market, the most important is understanding how TDI indicator works, TMS traders watch TDI, watch it again, and when you think the market will go that way, think about if TDI is telling you another way, before you commit to taking a trade, ask your self, do you really understand how TDI works?! answering this question might takes time, but you have to work on it until you discovered that , what makes a trader specialized in his indicator is not just taking the obvious rules , because these are the common that even a new trader will come to understand in short time, but spending time with learning how TDI works will tell you another story, and will make all the difference between winning and loosing.

I once watched PA , and kept losing , I neglected TDI for long time, but when I came to understand how this indicator works, my result kept improving , and I still sometime get a little bit early into a trade before TDI confirms my entry, thats not good, why because TDI can confirm the exact entry and the exact timing of the entry, ie entering at the time of the take off of the trade and not couple of hours before that when PA is consolidating , so timing is such an important factor that work amazing with TDI and other way around.

Thanks a lot, you made my day
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #41,457
  • Sep 28, 2014 2:13am Sep 28, 2014 2:13am
Example of a pending order, that would allows a better drawndown into the trade after the first red setup candle, since there were 2 higher high wicks following over bought TDI, I was looking to get short, now when new candle forms with upper and lower wicks, that indicates that on a lower time frame there might be some consolidation ie inside bar, doji whatever there that might indicate a retest on the lower time frame, so the plan is to check where a pending order might be set before taking the trade , so 2 options, first upper wick of previous blue candle or second upper higher high candle after the setup candle, still learning tho how to maximise this strategy

I still need to understand what to do when PA don't retest, what candle formation has higher probability of retesting, what structure is more likely to retested and so on

If you think this is a good approach to trading , let me know
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Pending Orders Example.jpg Size: 261 KB
I Have Learned to Take Some Losses to Make Profits
  • #41,458
  • Sep 28, 2014 3:14am Sep 28, 2014 3:14am
I am going through PHX 62 study 1 and compiled the same as trading plan in simple form based on my understanding. I am attaching here with the same. Also analysed last week, if I would have traded EURAUD H1 then it could have generated 173 pips.It would be interesting to see how PHX 62 has traded last week after his post. EXPERT comments are most wellcome for Trading plan and understanding of Phx 62 style H1 trading.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD.micH1.png Size: 64 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: xlsx Trading plan based on PHX 62 study 1.xlsx   22 KB | 877 downloads
  • #41,459
  • Sep 28, 2014 7:10am Sep 28, 2014 7:10am
Quoting manoj_3986
I am going through PHX 62 study 1 and compiled the same as trading plan in simple form based on my understanding. I am attaching here with the same. Also analysed last week, if I would have traded EURAUD H1 then it could have generated 173 pips.It would be interesting to see how PHX 62 has traded last week after his post. EXPERT comments are most wellcome for Trading plan and understanding of Phx 62 style H1 trading. {file} {image}
Hi manoj. Would you mind sharing the indicator that plot yesterday's high and yedterday's low?Thanks
  • #41,460
  • Sep 28, 2014 7:31am Sep 28, 2014 7:31am
Quoting fxtrain
{quote} Hi manoj. Would you mind sharing the indicator that plot yesterday's high and yedterday's low?Thanks
Dear Fxtrain,Its daily high low indicator. You might get through paper clip. If not then I will post the same when I will be at computer.ThanksManoj
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