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  • #925,581
  • Sep 22, 2014 11:55am Sep 22, 2014 11:55am
it looks like it will move down to the next stop 1.2800.... I don't think we are going to run dowm... it's going to be more like drift down... we have seen the last of the bounces... I wouldn't even call the Asian session a bounce....a Good bounce should have brought us back up to the 1.2950 area...
I'll pick up the crumbs don't need the whole pie
  • #925,582
  • Edited 12:24pm Sep 22, 2014 12:13pm | Edited 12:24pm
Quoting gatorinla
not a trade today for me atm.. i have to run.. i have the st wanting 2845/67 w/o a hh for 2811. so i have a pending 286x close with a tight stop... ej the same.. if nothing changes eu 2859 looks better then 2845
pending 286x with target?
Sometimes it's better to be wrong,to learn..
  • #925,583
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:15pm Sep 22, 2014 12:15pm
Quoting Quickiepip
it looks like it will move down to the next stop 1.2800.... I don't think we are going to run dowm... it's going to be more like drift down... we have seen the last of the bounces... I wouldn't even call the Asian session a bounce....a Good bounce should have brought us back up to the 1.2950 area...
There is no need to go that high...that area was properly tested last week, it broke down from here, so those levels are in the past. I can see this going to 2900-2920, definitely no reason for 2950, unless we get a reversal, but then 2950 would mean 3000 and 3050.
Everyone can see the chart, but only a few can actually read it.
  • #925,584
  • Sep 22, 2014 12:23pm Sep 22, 2014 12:23pm
Attached Image
  • #925,585
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:01pm Sep 22, 2014 2:01pm
A typical "No-Trade" day.

I expected that and did something else
  • #925,586
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:11pm Sep 22, 2014 2:11pm
Just for fun,

Here's a link of a bloomberg news article citing Citi Group Analysts on the 10th of July 2013
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...roup-says.html

Just for reminder, June 10th 2013 was the day at which the Dollar Index was at the exact same price as Today (the Euro reached a low of 1.2764 on that day - that was the last lowest we have seen the euro since then!)

Ironically, the article was calling for a much stronger Dollar because of the recovering US economy. At that day the S&P was 1% lower than its all time high (At that time). Guess what, today the S&P is 1% lower than its all time high and almost every 'media' economist out there is calling for a much higher dollar because of the recovering economy and the expectations for a rate cut

In case you are wondering, the eur/usd jumped 220 pips up on that day followed by another 220 pips the following day.

Anyone in for a 220 pip jump in the Euro tomorrow?
  • #925,587
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:30pm Sep 22, 2014 2:30pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Just for fun, Here's a link of a bloomberg news article citing Citi Group Analysts on the 10th of July 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...roup-says.html Just for reminder, June 10th 2013 was the day at which the Dollar Index was at the exact same price as Today (the Euro reached a low of 1.2764 on that day - that was the last lowest we have seen the euro...
I am betting on shorts because of the recent US data. To me, its good.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #925,588
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:31pm Sep 22, 2014 2:31pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Just for fun, Here's a link of a bloomberg news article citing Citi Group Analysts on the 10th of July 2013 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...roup-says.html Just for reminder, June 10th 2013 was the day at which the Dollar Index was at the exact same price as Today (the Euro reached a low of 1.2764 on that day - that was the last lowest we have seen the euro...
Yeah, but at the time there was not a "deposit facility at - 0.20% (negative). If I am not mistaken.



Key figures at a glance
Marginal lending facility 0.30 %
Main refinancing operations (fixed rate) 0.05 %
Deposit facility − 0.20 %
Buy at the Low, Sell at the High You make money by waiting not by trading.
  • #925,589
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:33pm Sep 22, 2014 2:33pm
keep telling buy buy
  • #925,590
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:35pm Sep 22, 2014 2:35pm
and in the end will say bye bye

It s like Mario will say I m ok with inflation data, I will not inject money in the system, I will raise the rate next month and Fed will keep the rate low for very long time cos the economy it s not working, will go to QE4 and will bring Bernanke back.

Think... What will be the trigger for 200 pips up? You?
  • #925,591
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:38pm Sep 22, 2014 2:38pm
Quoting barbones
and in the and will say bye bye
trust me buy ,price will reach 2880
  • #925,592
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:38pm Sep 22, 2014 2:38pm
First went short, closed at loss
Then again went short, again loss
Then went long, reversed position to short at BE.

I cannot help it If it does not want to go down. My only focus now is to make sure my loss is minimum if it goes higher from here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Untitled1.jpg Size: 66 KB
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #925,593
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:44pm Sep 22, 2014 2:44pm
Quoting Chicky
First went short, closed at loss Then again went short, again loss Then went long, reversed position to short at BE. I cannot help it If it does not want to go down. My only focus now is to make sure my loss is minimum if it goes higher from here. {image}
man, if you don't look at USD index this time it s bad. Just made a double top at London close. From there they try a little to break but it s to late. Tomorrow is another day. I was in profit in short today and I lose on GBP also short. Now I drink to forget.

Was a difficult day for scalp only for this reason. To break above on USd Index, that why Euro, GBP, JPY are moving strange. It s not easy to break an Year long level and Monday and with not so good Housing data. We will go down next time.

Patience
  • #925,594
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:50pm Sep 22, 2014 2:50pm
Quoting Chicky
First went short, closed at loss Then again went short, again loss Then went long, reversed position to short at BE. I cannot help it If it does not want to go down. My only focus now is to make sure my loss is minimum if it goes higher from here. {image}
it will go higher from here as it has to reach H4 parabolic psar and also OSMA bars on H4 loosing momentum, so good luck
  • #925,595
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:53pm Sep 22, 2014 2:53pm
Quoting magicpips
{quote} it will go higher from here as it has to reach H4 parabolic psar and also OSMA bars on H4 loosing momentum, so good luck
Ok, be my guest on Long.
  • #925,596
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:56pm Sep 22, 2014 2:56pm
Quoting barbones
{quote} Ok, be my guest on Long.
when i say it will go high I am not saying like some idiots here 200 or 1000 pips, it will go back up to 2880-2900 levels that is it, if there is any other signal comes after that target , i will let you know.
  • #925,597
  • Sep 22, 2014 2:59pm Sep 22, 2014 2:59pm
Quoting barbones
{quote} man, if you don't look at USD index this time it s bad. Just made a double top at London close. From there they try a little to break but it s to late. Tomorrow is another day. I was in profit in short today and I lose on GBP also short. Now I drink to forget. Was a difficult day for scalp only for this reason. To break above on USd Index, that why Euro, GBP, JPY are moving strange. It s not easy to break an Year long level and Monday and with not so good Housing data. We will go down next time. Patience
In past few months, I have decided never to believe in any index or technical, not even for a level. These are all useless. Try to get feel of the market in the moment, with bigger picture in mind. I call it Feel Good Indicator and Feel Not So Good Indicator. I go long or short when I feel like and exit when I feel not so good about my trade. But that's not all, I have also trashed all trading myths. Yes, I do keep an eye on where this global economy is going and how players respond to any new development.

Does this thinking help? Not technically as there is no edge in it, but since I am fighting without an armor, my money management has improved a lot.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #925,598
  • Sep 22, 2014 3:01pm Sep 22, 2014 3:01pm
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #925,599
  • Sep 22, 2014 3:06pm Sep 22, 2014 3:06pm
Quoting magicpips
{quote} it will go higher from here as it has to reach H4 parabolic psar and also OSMA bars on H4 loosing momentum, so good luck
It can, but we cannot say it will. When it goes there, I have a season ticket to enter a long.
The Thief of Wall Street
  • #925,600
  • Sep 22, 2014 3:12pm Sep 22, 2014 3:12pm
Quoting barbones
{image}

Great analysis brbones thank you.
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