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The similarity system

  • #8,761
  • Sep 20, 2014 6:04pm Sep 20, 2014 6:04pm
Quoting NorthTrader
Just a quick shout to Vlady, Baillie and everyone else who has written so much to help me understand the idea on the USDMXN chart. Thank you so much! I will read it all slowly and I'm sure it will sink in! (despite my stinking hangover this morning) This thread is great, really superb. Everyone has so many ideas and is so eager to help other people. Long live Eurusdd and long live this thread! Oh, and I echo LiquidGenious' comment on Validy's profile page - those pictures you drew on the train are adorable! Back later. Thanks!
Hey NorthTrader! Thanks to both you and LiquidGenius for the shout out! LOL
Have a great night/morning wherever you are.

Be back later.... good night!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,762
  • Sep 20, 2014 6:04pm Sep 20, 2014 6:04pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} heres a simple key to add. when you live in a big house with 9rooms, and you dont know exactly where your Iphone 6plus is because you may need to use it to check your trades on the go. How to you look for it. you have to check all nine rooms. now you know what to do, but you have to leave the room where youre seacrching and search the rest 8room, lol
nah man, you pick up the landline and call your number!

Good night!!
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,763
  • Sep 20, 2014 6:09pm Sep 20, 2014 6:09pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} h is time. You can't ignore it. Transience relies on it. We're talking about the same post then, regarding the water analogy. The post has points A, B and C. B represented tops and bottoms, C was an inflection point and we're trying to find out what will happen at A. You're only able to make the calc using at least 3 bars of time....h=3 If you spot a TZ zone then you must also count the number of bars from your focal point in order to know how long before it became confirmed transient/recurrent. This is h.
send me the link, remember i told you i am not using the TZ indicator. i am obviously doing things differently. i dont count bars to confirm. before or after the bar confirms i am already in my trade on the move to break the TRZone after i get my signal

are you scalping , or swinging. you need to understand that d way you apply these principles to scalping is different from how you apply to swinging. and on what timeframe are you trading.
  • #8,764
  • Sep 20, 2014 6:11pm Sep 20, 2014 6:11pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} nah man, you pick up the landline and call your number! Good night!!
im giving you an analogy lol. assume theres no landine
  • #8,765
  • Sep 20, 2014 6:12pm Sep 20, 2014 6:12pm
Quoting vlady1974
1H timeframe. Because of the current downtrend, there is a near 60% chance that the bottom will have a transient zone that looks like the one marked in green bottom centre of the image. Ignore the top left one for now, as it's not what I'm talking about. {image} I observed this from a period between 31st March 2014 to 21st September. There is 33% that it will not look like the above and 7% that it will be neutral. I have not tallied up the periods before 31st March but my contention is that the higher level timeframes, the trend begins to change....
Good Point Vlady. I am very interested in Price action. Here is what I am seeing in the images you have posted. (Sorry for the bad Graphics)
Attached Image
  • #8,766
  • Sep 20, 2014 7:14pm Sep 20, 2014 7:14pm
Quoting josh11
As I promised here before after testing something I have found I would share with you all... So we don't need any indicators for this just right click and click on the volume, then click your data window and hover over the bars and you will see the volume reading! Now if we see the volume bar 1000+ and it continues in the same direction we will find most of the time it will pull-back to the close of this volume bar! I like to think of an elastic band as a example once price moves with volume and keep going it will eventually spring back! This is...
Thankyou Josh , something useful l
Regards Orid peter
  • #8,767
  • Sep 20, 2014 7:24pm Sep 20, 2014 7:24pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} Honestly vlady, i dont use h values, i eyeball my lines and draw them. when i read the thread all over again i will know what h really means. there are so much of the theory i dont know. i just see the practical side of it. thats how i am in real life matters you can actually define the price path just by lines. my charts are naked with a few moving averages and macdrsi for divergence. a few moving averages that serve as major support andd resistance. the rest are lines lines lines lines and my eye indicator which is most important
I like this, some are making way to complicated for me , something that is very easy to trade ,
as for long term specific times and targets would be nice to know but not needed the way I'm trading . doesn't even matter if there is a sudden trend change I wont be caught in a big way maybe 10 pips.
keep it simple if you can .
Regards Orid peter
  • #8,768
  • Sep 20, 2014 7:31pm Sep 20, 2014 7:31pm
Quoting Baillie
Let me ask a question, Do you make a positive trade by setting your take profit in the transient zone OR by setting your take profit in the areas just above or below the transient zone; depending which way the market is moving to. North trader, think of it this way; the higher your (h) is, the LESS transient zones you will have. The lower your (h) is, the more transient zones you will have. So, think about this, transient meaning: (passing through) do you want to find more areas that price passes through or less? It is possible to make very good...
carefull here,
  • #8,769
  • Edited Sep 21, 2014 2:03am Sep 20, 2014 7:40pm | Edited Sep 21, 2014 2:03am
Quoting josh11
As I promised here before after testing something I have found I would share with you all... So we don't need any indicators for this just right click and click on the volume, then click your data window and hover over the bars and you will see the volume reading! Now if we see the volume bar 1000+ and it continues in the same direction we will find most of the time it will pull-back to the close of this volume bar! I like to think of an elastic band as a example once price moves with volume and keep going it will eventually spring back! This is...
Josh I have to thank you again for this gem ,I just realised it fits perfectly to the way I trade big time perfect I owe you
as to finding how you make your zone calls ,I am no where near .
Regards Orid peter
  • #8,770
  • Sep 20, 2014 7:44pm Sep 20, 2014 7:44pm
Quoting orid
{quote} I like this, some are making way to complicated for me , something that is very easy to trade , as for long term specific times and targets would be nice to know but not needed the way I'm trading . doesn't even matter if there is a sudden trend change I wont be caught in a big way maybe 10 pips. keep it simple if you can . Regards Orid peter

Thanks mate, its our little secret, the serious ones will get it soon. i cant reveal that aspect
  • #8,771
  • Edited 10:34pm Sep 20, 2014 7:51pm | Edited 10:34pm
Quoting FX-Jay
Feel free to keep a screen shot of this and haunt me with it My current projections: (P.S. I put my money where my mouth is, so you can bet that I will be losing money if those projections didn't work, but yet again, the account is up 40% since Monday so...) In chronological order: - Short USD/CHF aiming for at least 0.93 by Monday night / European close - Short USD/MXN aiming for at least 13.15 by Monday night / European close - Long EUR/USD aiming for at least 1.299 by Tuesday night / European close - Long Brent Crude Oil aiming for at least...

You will have to remove me from your ignore list before i can hunt you. you ignored me because i challenged your eurusdd call. im so pissed with fx-jay right now because he feels his the best around here. so immature of you, i sent a message over to fx-jay apologizing to him but he still ignoring me. oh well so much for maturity. if you ever read this, you need to admit that you made a mistake and you long call on eususd expired same day on the 17th after close of market.

The best you can do right now on market open is 1.2930 thats if you get above 1.2860, i believe 1.2860 is our max retracement but if that breaks then 1.2930 but i doubt that.
i still will not ignore you. you dont know it all
  • #8,772
  • Sep 20, 2014 7:53pm Sep 20, 2014 7:53pm
Quoting orid
{quote} Josh I have to thank you again for this gem ,I just realised it fits perfectly to the way I trade big time perfect I owe you as to finding how you make your zone calls , no where near . Regards Orid peter
i think we trade the same way mate
  • #8,773
  • Sep 20, 2014 7:56pm Sep 20, 2014 7:56pm
Quoting orid
{quote} I like this, some are making way to complicated for me , something that is very easy to trade , as for long term specific times and targets would be nice to know but not needed the way I'm trading . doesn't even matter if there is a sudden trend change I wont be caught in a big way maybe 10 pips. keep it simple if you can . Regards Orid peter
we will ride her where ever she goes, time and price projection is cool but not necessary. you were the only one who stood firm with me yesterday when we called short. That means we are doing something right
  • #8,774
  • Sep 20, 2014 9:48pm Sep 20, 2014 9:48pm
My latest take is simple. I need WHERE, WHEN and HOW answered to place a trade. TZ with the left formed and right still forming works best in my model. They tell me WHERE. The H I use tells me WHEN. HOW will need some work and observation.
I want more brain power!
  • #8,775
  • Sep 20, 2014 10:04pm Sep 20, 2014 10:04pm
Now i go back to the beginning of the thread to dig out all those eurusdd golden nuggets.
its bed time 6am My sleepless nights finally paid off.
Bye house
  • #8,776
  • Sep 20, 2014 10:11pm Sep 20, 2014 10:11pm
Quoting ephisi
{quote} You will have to remove me from your ignore list before i cant hunt you. you ignored me because i challenged your eurusdd call. im so pissed with fx-jay right now because he feels his the best around here. so immature of you, i sent a message over to fx-jay apologizing to him but he still ignoring me. oh well so much for maturity. if you ever read this, you need to admit that you made a mistake and you long call on eususd expired same day on the 17th after close of market. The best you can do right now on market open is 1.2930 thats if you...
ephisi, I think it's time for you to get some sleep! Those calls of Jay's haven't expired yet, he's talking about next week Monday and Tuesday.
You reap what you sow.
  • #8,777
  • Sep 21, 2014 5:40am Sep 21, 2014 5:40am
Quoting kprsa
{quote} If you're not using any indicators for your strategy, how do you calculate your probabilities?
I should have been more clear on this point, I have mentioned this to you in our PMs, but I think I should point it out for everyone out here to clear this out since I got lots of messages asking me about this.

In order to calculate the correct H, and in very few cases the correct K, I use the indicators that were generously share on this thread by Kprsa and FreeFox.

Once the H is determined, I don't use any form of indicator to enter my trade, confirm it, or set my TP.

I hope this clears out the indicator issue for everyone.

Jay
  • #8,778
  • Sep 21, 2014 5:45am Sep 21, 2014 5:45am
Quoting Madmoney
{quote} This is what I was wondering.... If it's not an indicator, what calculates the probabilities?? Is it an estimation or an external program? I know eurusdd has some kind of software. MM
Hey Madmoney,

Glad to see that you've positively mentioned me in earlier posts.
You're one of the very well respected members in here, I'm still new so I don't know you as much as the others here do, but I'm hoping to get to learn more about your ideas.

Concerning the indicators, I hope that the previous post helped clarify.

Best,
Jay
  • #8,779
  • Sep 21, 2014 6:48am Sep 21, 2014 6:48am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} ephisi, I think it's time for you to get some sleep! Those calls of Jay's haven't expired yet, he's talking about next week Monday and Tuesday.
I'm so tempted to read what misleading things he's posting now. I'd rather not though, people are interested in my methods and calls, not to my replies on irrelevant useless bashing.

Just a note to everyone, I don't answer to bashing messages. Don't believe anything being said (good or bad) unless you can link it back to a post I made.
Don't expect me to be replying to useless posts by 'no this is not true' and 'yes this is true'.

As for constructive criticism, I more than encourage it. I will even be the 1st one criticizing myself here in front of you when the time comes
  • #8,780
  • Edited 7:19am Sep 21, 2014 6:53am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting kprsa
Hi all, Update to the Recurrence statistic indicator, it contains more useful statistical quantities.
Hi all,

a minor update to the Recurrence statistic indicator. I have been using this version in this (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=7694035#post7694035) post. This version enables you to specify the "left" and "right" h-values separately.
This means that, for example, you can select the h_left=3 on the 5 min TF and select h_right=12 to calculate the clearance probability (and the probability of reaching within the calculated <k>, 2<k>, 3<k>) within 12*5 min = 1 h.

Don't trade against strong trends. Be good.

Cheers,
kprsa

Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 RecurrenceStatisticV3.mq4   14 KB | 791 downloads


EDIT: compiled version:
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 RecurrenceStatisticV3.ex4   24 KB | 663 downloads
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