Disliked{quote} Hey Jay, Just wanted to give you a shout-out re your efforts, results, the knowledge you've shared back.... oh and your PM to me! I actually don't think your bias makes any difference. Some who are seeking intra-day guidance may get confused but that's by-the-by. To me, the TZ or whatever still leave room for the art of interpretation and that's where the true magic is. We may have the ability to project probability but in the end anything can happen no matter what the probability. So in saying that, I don't think it's wild at all for you...Ignored
I had 3 great trades overnight from a new found friend, USDMXN, first trade went a little against but I found a better price and added another position. EURUSD + 17 (1) position USDMXN + 43 (2) position.s I have been using TZ/RZ along with "probability", I could have had more but I used conservative targets to keep my pips.
If you feel like another 100+ pips trade, check out Brent Crude Oil
watch out for the volatility though Good Luck
Feel free to keep a screen shot of this and haunt me with it 
My current projections:
(P.S. I put my money where my mouth is, so you can bet that I will be losing money if those projections didn't work, but yet again, the account is up 40% since Monday so...)
In chronological order:
- Short USD/CHF aiming for at least 0.93 by Monday night / European close
- Short USD/MXN aiming for at least 13.15 by Monday night / European close
- Long EUR/USD aiming for at least 1.299 by Tuesday night / European close
- Long Brent Crude Oil aiming for at least 99.50 before Wednesday's Asian session
All of these trades have more than 100 pip potentials from current prices
Thanks
My current projections:
(P.S. I put my money where my mouth is, so you can bet that I will be losing money if those projections didn't work, but yet again, the account is up 40% since Monday so...)
In chronological order:
- Short USD/CHF aiming for at least 0.93 by Monday night / European close
- Short USD/MXN aiming for at least 13.15 by Monday night / European close
- Long EUR/USD aiming for at least 1.299 by Tuesday night / European close
- Long Brent Crude Oil aiming for at least 99.50 before Wednesday's Asian session
All of these trades have more than 100 pip potentials from current prices
Thanks
- #8,605
- Sep 19, 2014 8:18am Sep 19, 2014 8:18am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,782 Posts
Feel free to keep a screen shot of this and haunt me with it
Hmmm what happens if we dont see 1.2999 by tuesday nite. you loose your bragging rights?
- #8,606
- Sep 19, 2014 8:19am Sep 19, 2014 8:19am
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,782 Posts
I have learnt never to try to catch a falling knife till it his the ground and bounces once or twice into my hands.
- #8,607
- Sep 19, 2014 8:20am Sep 19, 2014 8:20am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
Feel free to keep a screen shot of this and haunt me with it
I can see bits/pieces of EURUSD / USDCHF : this is the one that needs greater clarity, but definitely not averse to it... it's still in my Wave 4 expectation.
I don't trade Brent, but I guess I can learn to expand my horizons!
So, Jay.... what high level principle is required for us to see what you see on the #2... and what timeframe should we start at?
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
{quote} so you are the highly respected somebody that orid was talking about who said we will see 1.3 by tuesday nite. Hmmm what happens if we dont see 1.2999 by tuesday nite. you loose your bragging rights?
Time to test the ignore button
{quote} I can see the reasoning for USDMXN I can see bits/pieces of EURUSD / USDCHF : this is the one that needs greater clarity, but definitely not averse to it... it's still in my Wave 4 expectation. I don't trade Brent, but I guess I can learn to expand my horizons!
#2 as in USD/MXN?
I mentioned previously that I shorted it base on the Daily chart using the system being discussed here.
I've taken some profit off the table (as you can see from today's statement), and I loaded up again on almost the same price I had yesterday.
That trade expires Monday night so that's less than 24 bars on the hourly chart, and it comes in hand with the dollar weakness expected in order for the USD/CHF trade to be successful around the same time. I believe that its going to be both or none.
- #8,613
- Sep 19, 2014 8:38am Sep 19, 2014 8:38am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
- #8,614
- Sep 19, 2014 8:46am Sep 19, 2014 8:46am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
Well it seems I've found myself stuck with this TZ business. Yesterday I employed my understanding that a formed left side TZ zone has only a probability of 3% to actually become a TZ zone so there is a 97% chance that the TZ "area" will be visited within H(x). This model worked really well yesterday with me letting price move away from the left side TZ and taking a position in the opposite direction of the move targeting and area just above the said TZ.
This approach somehow failed quite miserably today for me. I understand of course the fault is mine but I can't figure out where the problem is. I was on the 1m so the "volatility" of it could be a reason. I was manual drawing my TZs so I could have drew them wrongly today for some reason. It could also be that I'm still very mixed up on the TZ concept and employing it wrongly.
This approach somehow failed quite miserably today for me. I understand of course the fault is mine but I can't figure out where the problem is. I was on the 1m so the "volatility" of it could be a reason. I was manual drawing my TZs so I could have drew them wrongly today for some reason. It could also be that I'm still very mixed up on the TZ concept and employing it wrongly.
I want more brain power!
- #8,619
- Sep 19, 2014 9:20am Sep 19, 2014 9:20am
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
{quote} Actually, let me put it another way... so I'm happy to hunker down and figure this out.
That's why I'm gonna throw out more hints in my answer then you were expecting
So here you go:
1- There is only one theory I use in this system, the theory of TZ .. nothing else whatsoever. A quick look at my results will show you that I am taking perfectly profitable trades in pairs that I don't even know what their symbols stand for
2- My charts (the ones used for this strategy) have 0 indicators! Yes ZERO. They are as clean as a chart can get.
3- I have discussed with you my views on euro in general for the medium term, but this call (1.299) has nothing to do with those views, you could have hid the name of the chart for me, and I would have given you the same number.
4- When I got the first signal, I was using a certain H, and this H allowed me to project the time at which the signal expires. The signal was of 90% probability of occurrence. As time passes you would assume that the probability should get less as the price moves away from your target. This is true in general, but sometimes you have another H that comes to the rescue (could be on the same timeframe or a lower one)
5- I don't have to weigh priorities since I only have one in this system which is TZ & my probability %s depend only on that and the way I understand probabilities (that's why my 90% is different from EURUSDD's 90%, since he uses multiple factors to come up with this probabilities)