{quote} These show continuation patterns and optimal zones to place your entries using transient zones as basis
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
- #8,741
- Sep 20, 2014 6:58pm Sep 20, 2014 6:58pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
- #8,743
- Sep 20, 2014 7:01pm Sep 20, 2014 7:01pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,782 Posts
{quote} Hahaha... you need some sleep bro!
- #8,746
- Sep 20, 2014 7:09pm Sep 20, 2014 7:09pm
Okay, here's a little sample of one of the things I've been looking at.... to continue the discussion of Transient Zones: The areas from the chart are randomly selected, but the formation/patterns I am picking are quite specific. I'll just post the pictures and you can all comment. {image} {image} {image}
- #8,748
- Sep 20, 2014 7:12pm Sep 20, 2014 7:12pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,782 Posts
{quote} ok im getting this. heres what i think . another leg to 1.2860 before next wave to 1.2750. 1.2830 is an inflextion point. someone correct me if im wrong . remembber eurusdd said at inflection pionts it may be a turn or a continuation
what i am seeing is that since 1.2830 is an inflection point we may head 100pipish down to 1.2730ish or head up 100pips to 1.2930. which ever plays out first we must return to 1.2930 either way where volumes will become 1000+ again.
Now i dont see any confirmatory signs of a bottom yet so i will call down to 1.2730ish then back up to 1.2830.
I also hear eurusdd say, there is a line in the sand where price may not deviate more than a particular number of pips. that number is looking like 80 to 100pips to me.
wow. did i just make such an analysis. i have been seeing imaginary charts and hearing imaginary voices of eurusdd,vlady,fxjay, now josh. you guys beta get out of my mind
- #8,749
- Sep 20, 2014 7:13pm Sep 20, 2014 7:13pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
1H timeframe.
Because of the current downtrend, there is a near 60% chance that the bottom will have a transient zone that looks like the one marked in green bottom centre of the image. Ignore the top left one for now, as it's not what I'm talking about.
I observed this from a period between 31st March 2014 to 21st September.
There is 33% that it will not look like the above and 7% that it will be neutral.
I have not tallied up the periods before 31st March but my contention is that the higher level timeframes, the trend begins to change.
Basically, the image of the bottom has a TZ formation that is highly likely to attract price back to it after a period of time.
When a true bottom is strong enough, the TZ formation is the opposite of the one shown and price does not often return to it for a greater period of time. In other words, it's more likely to behave like a true bottom and price remains above it and doesn't return until a major top has been formed... etc etc.
Because of the current downtrend, there is a near 60% chance that the bottom will have a transient zone that looks like the one marked in green bottom centre of the image. Ignore the top left one for now, as it's not what I'm talking about.
I observed this from a period between 31st March 2014 to 21st September.
There is 33% that it will not look like the above and 7% that it will be neutral.
I have not tallied up the periods before 31st March but my contention is that the higher level timeframes, the trend begins to change.
Basically, the image of the bottom has a TZ formation that is highly likely to attract price back to it after a period of time.
When a true bottom is strong enough, the TZ formation is the opposite of the one shown and price does not often return to it for a greater period of time. In other words, it's more likely to behave like a true bottom and price remains above it and doesn't return until a major top has been formed... etc etc.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
- #8,750
- Sep 20, 2014 7:16pm Sep 20, 2014 7:16pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,782 Posts
{quote} Hahaha... you need some sleep bro!
No i am wide awake. dont forget eurusdd says this is art and we should be creative. we look at the same chart but we dont always see the same things. i can see my entries on your chart and where i would draw my levels.i may be mixing upp the theoretical part. thats why i need to go start the thread allover again to know what the words and concepts mean exactly
- #8,751
- Sep 20, 2014 7:26pm Sep 20, 2014 7:26pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,782 Posts
{quote} @vlady here is what i am seeing and hearing. i hear eurusdd saying he has to wait till market opens to know if this is an inflection or not. what i am seeing is that since 1.2830 is an inflection point we may head 100pipish down to 1.2730ish or head up 100pips to 1.2930. which ever plays out first we must return to 1.2930 either way where volumes will become 1000+ again. Now i dont see any confirmatory signs of a bottom yet so i will call down to 1.2730ish then back up to 1.2830. I also hear eurusdd say, there is a line in the sand where...
1H timeframe. Because of the current downtrend, there is a near 60% chance that the bottom will have a transient zone that looks like the one marked in green bottom centre of the image. Ignore the top left one for now, as it's not what I'm talking about. {image} I observed this from a period between 31st March 2014 to 21st September. There is 33% that it will not look like the above and 7% that it will be neutral. I have not tallied up the periods before 31st March but my contention is that the higher level timeframes, the trend begins to change....
we have said the exact same thing in different words. thats y i said this is art. i was wide awake. i know what i saw
- #8,752
- Sep 20, 2014 7:31pm Sep 20, 2014 7:31pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
{quote} @vlady here is what i am seeing and hearing. i hear eurusdd saying he has to wait till market opens to know if this is an inflection or not. what i am seeing is that since 1.2830 is an inflection point we may head 100pipish down to 1.2730ish or head up 100pips to 1.2930. which ever plays out first we must return to 1.2930 either way where volumes will become 1000+ again. Now i dont see any confirmatory signs of a bottom yet so i will call down to 1.2730ish then back up to 1.2830. I also hear eurusdd say, there is a line in the sand where...
Despite some differences in bias, I think we're all calling or describing the same old bag. Just from different angles and timeframes.
Timeframe sync between 4H, 1H, 15M, 5M, 1M is important, so I've been trying to sync up the 4H to the 1H via Transient Zones. And syncing the 1H to 5M also via Transient Zones but with a different h value on the 5M. I now have a table of prices.
How I do this reconciliation or bridging between 1 timeframe to another is to apply the concept that Eurusdd mentioned which was to describe the flow of water down a hill or mountain when rocks or obstacles appear in its path.... moves it out of the way. Transient Zones do this.... but the 4H h wont align with the 5M h... so you have to map the 4H zones on the chart. Then switch to 1H and do the h equivalent of the 4H on the same chart and mark the TZ, then using a diff colour or else you'll have lines all over the place, you map the 5M TZ...... next you look for pairs. A top TZ pair and Bottom TZ pair of the higher timeframe.... within that you look for a lower timeframe TZ pair.... and you look for the most recent TZ boxes. You then delete lines that are not within each other and essentially you should have TZs that have been timeframe sync'd. Sorry if this is crude and confusing. It's 1:25am but I won't draw it... I just thought I'd share this.
But to return to the TZ bottom.... the reason I described above is that this is how I was able to validate a few things but namely that we have a consolidation range between 2995 and 2745, roughly speaking. One big box. I also have a non-Eurusdd related indicator that was triggered just before New York close as pointing to a bottom. This was the one that confused me and I started looking for evidence as to why a bullish move could be underway. As you may all know, I am still convinced of a Wave 4 countertrend move towards 1.3X... this could be capped around 1.2995ish.
But... to return again to the Bottom.... if tomorrow opens with a bottom that is as per image... then it's not a true bottom. It could gap down (not reach 2745) and then shoot up and form a TZ but if it's shaped like above, but stay below 2844 then it will go down and remain down until it forms a TZ Bottom where the right TZ is larger than the Left TZ.
Sorry for the long explanation. Long day of alcohol, champagne, food, desert and walks on the coast with the True Boss.
Edit:
Here you go...This is a 5M chart with 1H/4H transient zones in Blue, 5M in yellow. I won't reveal my h values.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
- #8,753
- Sep 20, 2014 7:36pm Sep 20, 2014 7:36pm
- | Membership Revoked | Joined Jun 2007 | 3,782 Posts
{quote} Hey Eph, Despite some differences in bias, I think we're all calling or describing the same old bag. Just from different angles and timeframes. Timeframe sync between 4H, 1H, 15M, 5M, 1M is important, so I've been trying to sync up the 4H to the 1H via Transient Zones. And syncing the 1H to 5M also via Transient Zones but with a different h value on the 5M. I now have a table of prices. How I do this reconciliation or bridging between 1 timeframe to another is to apply the concept that Eurusdd mentioned which was to describe the flow of...
Honestly vlady, i dont use h values, i eyeball my lines and draw them. when i read the thread all over again i will know what h really means. there are so much of the theory i dont know. i just see the practical side of it. thats how i am in real life matters
you can actually define the price path just by lines. my charts are naked with a few moving averages and macdrsi for divergence. a few moving averages that serve as major support andd resistance. the rest are lines lines lines lines and my eye indicator which is most important
- #8,756
- Sep 20, 2014 7:46pm Sep 20, 2014 7:46pm
- Joined Jul 2009 | Status: Left Leg In, Right Leg Out! | 5,792 Posts
{quote} Honestly vlady, i dont use h values, i eyeball my lines and draw them. when i read the thread all over again i will know what h really means. there are so much of the theory i dont know. i just see the practical side of it. thats how i am in real life matters
Transience relies on it.
We're talking about the same post then, regarding the water analogy. The post has points A, B and C.
B represented tops and bottoms, C was an inflection point and we're trying to find out what will happen at A. You're only able to make the calc using at least 3 bars of time....h=3
If you spot a TZ zone then you must also count the number of bars from your focal point in order to know how long before it became confirmed transient/recurrent. This is h.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
