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The similarity system

  • #8,701
  • Sep 20, 2014 7:54am Sep 20, 2014 7:54am
Quoting handy148
Don't know if I'm doing this right with all the brains we have here (too many to mention) but on my convoluted way of looking at it I have 1.29942 as a price that needs re-visiting. Don't know about the timing - haven't worked out how to do that yet.
this stuff is quite complex. 1.2200, 1.22 also needs revisiting. sometime its best to just follow the flow rather than predicting price. i will ride her in what ever direction she goes . if we hit 1.2999 trust me i would have been in long before we get there. if we hit 1. 2200 also i will be in also
  • #8,702
  • Sep 20, 2014 8:01am Sep 20, 2014 8:01am
Quoting Baillie
Let me ask a question, Do you make a positive trade by setting your take profit in the transient zone OR by setting your take profit in the areas just above or below the transient zone; depending which way the market is moving to. North trader, think of it this way; the higher your (h) is, the LESS transient zones you will have. The lower your (h) is, the more transient zones you will have. So, think about this, transient meaning: (passing through) do you want to find more areas that price passes through or less? It is possible to make very good...
I prefer a low h value, Baillie. But I can't see how this relates to the questions I asked Vlady before.
You reap what you sow.
  • #8,703
  • Sep 20, 2014 8:15am Sep 20, 2014 8:15am
Trying to apply my own stupid way of doing this, I have 12838'ish as my next target long (based on M5).
  • #8,704
  • Sep 20, 2014 8:23am Sep 20, 2014 8:23am
Quoting ephisi
{quote} this stuff is quite complex. 1.2200, 1.22 also needs revisiting. sometime its best to just follow the flow rather than predicting price. i will ride her in what ever direction she goes . if we hit 1.2999 trust me i would have been in long before we get there. if we hit 1. 2200 also i will be in also
either way there is patience let it come to your side take one pawn at a time
I never trade within 1 hour of red news
RegardsOrid peter
  • #8,705
  • Edited 8:46am Sep 20, 2014 8:29am | Edited 8:46am
Am on a the Orient Express (British Pullman) so can't give out an essay. LOL
But I drew these. Apologies if cryptic.
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Tops are tops. Swing tops are different...they are the end of the swing. I prefer not to pick tops or bottoms but enter swing tops after a top. Vice versa for bottoms.

you can be aggressive on a TZ if you get in early, or conservative by entering after a TZ is confirmed, h +1. Or a retrace swing top. This is just trade entry 101.... However you do it is up to you. But the TZ to the left, you are looking for the areas of that price did not return to, wicks or bars. Forget pivot points or S/R...don't think like that for TZ. It's about looking for where price did not return and where it did. You reduce the height of the TZ.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,706
  • Sep 20, 2014 8:47am Sep 20, 2014 8:47am
in terms of USDMXN the middle bar posted a wick on the 1H? Bar. So to me it was a set of prices rejected by the body. It was recurrent (left area filled with bars) but since then nothing on the right, price had gone up.... So if in the future price looks like it's returning from the top... Then it's got to be a target for return. Transient vs Return. Not S/R.
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A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,707
  • Sep 20, 2014 9:01am Sep 20, 2014 9:01am
Quoting Baillie
Let me ask a question, Do you make a positive trade by setting your take profit in the transient zone OR by setting your take profit in the areas just above or below the transient zone; depending which way the market is moving to. North trader, think of it this way; the higher your (h) is, the LESS transient zones you will have. The lower your (h) is, the more transient zones you will have. So, think about this, transient meaning: (passing through) do you want to find more areas that price passes through or less? It is possible to make very good...
MORE!!!
I want more brain power!
  • #8,708
  • Edited 9:24am Sep 20, 2014 9:12am | Edited 9:24am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Several people have acknowledged this post of Vlady's as very meaningful to them but unfortunately I can't see it yet (sorry Vlady!). Can anyone please help me out? For instance: "But here's another magic nugget: both a Top and a Bottom always has space to the left." I really can't see how this is a magic nugget. It's like saying the top of Everest has space all around it on a plane parallel to the Earth. Of course the top or bottom has space to the left, otherwise it wouldn't be a top or bottom! It will also have space to the right. And:...
You gave yourself the answer.
of course a top or bottom has space to the left. Yes, precisely.... And hence you'll know that a TZ range has been formed. But the right hand side is your unknown. In my pictures, you can't know if 1b will form or any of the rest. What you can look for is the wicks that serve as the range for the TZ. Trade from it or trade towards it... However your biased. From a basic point of view, assuming the market is normal and not too volatile, if the top is formed and you get a normal retrace top that DOESNT RETURN to the TZ... And it is outside of h, then the TZ is transient and you can short with confidence. SL in the TZ.

As for the second question..... Knowing that a range is recurrent..... It doesn't help you? You realise this is the entire premise of Eurusdd's TZ? If transient is 3% and recurrent is 97%.... Then future recurrent is..........97%!
USDMXN example again... The wick is my way of identifying mid bar TZs that do not form tops or bottoms....if you go back to Eurusdd's early examples, there are incidents of this, not just tops/bottoms.

So if the Left side suggests that price clustered within previous h bars.... Even of h bars after that bar didn't return, why would it not return there? Why couldn't you target it? The reason these are ALSO important to look for, not just Tops and Bottoms, is because they are recurrent. If you have 2 TZs on 4H... 1.3 and 1.2 and price has formed a top at 1.28 and there is a midbar TZ on the 1H at 1.24..... Since price has confirmed 1.28 and is now moving down, you could set a target for 1.24 as it has high probability of being returned to....more so in the lower timeframe than 1.2

hope this makes sense.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,709
  • Sep 20, 2014 9:20am Sep 20, 2014 9:20am
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} Several people have acknowledged this post of Vlady's as very meaningful to them but unfortunately I can't see it yet (sorry Vlady!). Can anyone please help me out? For instance: "But here's another magic nugget: both a Top and a Bottom always has space to the left." I really can't see how this is a magic nugget. It's like saying the top of Everest has space all around it on a plane parallel to the Earth. Of course the top or bottom has space to the left, otherwise it wouldn't be a top or bottom! It will also have space to the right. And:...
Quoting NorthTrader
{quote} I prefer a low h value, Baillie. But I can't see how this relates to the questions I asked Vlady before.
But can anyone please enlighten me? I was answering this question, not all of them.

I can't see how knowing that a price that was recurrent in past can help us in the future. There are many prices that are left-side recurrent but right-side transient (for a given value of h) . Also prices that are left-side transient and right-side recurrent. And of course prices that are fully transient (left and right), and prices that are fully recurrent.. I know this is a probability game, and fully transient prices are the rarest, but I don't understand what Vlady is saying about the importance of left-side recurrent prices.

Because of probabilities they will remain recurrent for a time. If you know that they are recurrent you can safely place your take profits in these zones and make some $$$$$.
  • #8,710
  • Edited 9:55am Sep 20, 2014 9:34am | Edited 9:55am
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} You gave yourself the answer. of course a top or bottom has space to the left. Yes, precisely.... And hence you'll know that a TZ range has been formed. But the right hand side is your unknown. In my pictures, you can't know if 1b will form or any of the rest. What you can look for is the wicks that serve as the range for the TZ. Trade from it or trade towards it... However your biased. From a basic point of view, assuming the market is normal and not too volatile, if the top is formed and you get a normal retrace top that DOESNT RETURN...
Way to go BRO! YES, makes very good sense.

Suggestion, If you do not GET this, take some time off from trying to figure it out.

Go play get your mind off this, you need to reset your brain. Then, when you come back, READ only those posts that have made some kind of sense to you.

You do not have to get the whole thing at once. Write down what you do get and try to visualize it on a chart.

EDIT: Have a jam session with your favorite musician or band before reading or trying to understand a concept you want to retain information about, music causes your body to release chemicals that calm your nerves and neural pathways to fire on all cylinders. Try it.

Creative people spark creativity in others.
  • #8,711
  • Sep 20, 2014 11:49am Sep 20, 2014 11:49am
Hey everyone.

This is mainly for the ones out there struggling.

I thought i would share some of the thoughts i made when i started to open my eyes (very important that you do this yourself!)

You need to read the hole thread, but i suppose almost all of you have done this. You DON'T need to understand everything, and you definately dont need to use evthing in your trading. I see every different concepts being used at the moment, and all of them are doing very good!

If there is something that you don't understand. Don't force yourself to understand it. Use the things that you understand, and improve them yourself, with some additions or filters. The one thing that is very important is that people learn 1 concept fully! I started with one concept and made sure i understood it fully before moving on to the other ones. It is good to understand every system, as you can use them to confirm one antoher. You can't just copy-paste systems. You must understand why and how they work. You can get inspiration, and use the aspects of a system, but you must feel familiar with it, and trust it. You must know that it wont let you down, and if it does this 3-4% of the times, you will have something to make sure it is still okay. I can't say anymore, but i can say that hard work will get you there, and it is deffinately worth it! I have no fear when i open a trade. I believe that my decisions are good, and i trust my secret weapon.

You can do it!

Ullen
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #8,712
  • Sep 20, 2014 12:01pm Sep 20, 2014 12:01pm
Quoting Ullen
Hey everyone. This is mainly for the ones out there struggling. I thought i would share some of the thoughts i made when i started to open my eyes (very important that you do this yourself!) You need to read the hole thread, but i suppose almost all of you have done this. You DON'T need to understand everything, and you definately dont need to use evthing in your trading. I see every different concepts being used at the moment, and all of them are doing very good! If there is something that you don't understand. Don't force yourself to understand...
Love it! This is the attitude that fosters champions and excellence.
It has nothing to do with intellectualism, intelligence or genetics. It's just plain hard work, focus, discipline, direction and methodology.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,713
  • Sep 20, 2014 12:42pm Sep 20, 2014 12:42pm
Yes, pretty much the above. Specialization goes a long way..
  • #8,714
  • Sep 20, 2014 12:46pm Sep 20, 2014 12:46pm
Quoting vlady1974
{quote} Love it! This is the attitude that fosters champions and excellence. It has nothing to do with intellectualism, intelligence or genetics. It's just plain hard work, focus, discipline, direction and methodology.
Thank you, I agree 100%

If people don't understand the forex market, or can't trade without fear they have to remember some things.

You can see the forex market as your mood during the day/week/year. If you drop your new iphone in the morning we have a very bearish bar. But chances are that there will happen something during the day that will make you happy again, this is price moving it's way towards the start of the bearish bar. If you have a bad day this is a bearish dayli bar, but there are bullish spikes because there will hapen some things that will make your mood better. small bullish trends.

This is just me trying to make it clear. I know that it isn't the same, but people must understand that price/mood wil almost always return to a previous state. So even if everything seems bad, something will happen that makes it better.
Not about how much you win, but how much you loose
  • #8,715
  • Sep 20, 2014 1:03pm Sep 20, 2014 1:03pm
Quoting Ullen
{quote} Thank you, I agree 100% If people don't understand the forex market, or can't trade without fear they have to remember some things. You can see the forex market as your mood during the day/week/year. If you drop your new iphone in the morning we have a very bearish bar. But chances are that there will happen something during the day that will make you happy again, this is price moving it's way towards the start of the bearish bar. If you have a bad day this is a bearish dayli bar, but there are bullish spikes because there will hapen some...
I like your analogy. It's real and something we can relate to.

We can always aim to be unemotional machines with complete detachment and iron discipline and resolve to follow our rules. But with real money and pressure, it sometimes doesn't turn out the way you plan.

Even with these techniques, I suffer from relapses. We are human.
The thing is persistence and consistency - even if you have the bad days.

Even more so with studying. Many want to see a plan that guarantees 30-60 pips a day. Many want to see a plan like: when a + b, enter at c and exit at d with your SL at e. The problem most people see is that they read this thread and don't find a plan. They then ask for

a) a summary
b) an example or a lesson or coaching....... FOR FREE as if it is an entitlement.

...and then if they don't get the above, prefer to believe that it is about level of academic achievement, intelligence or smarts. But you said it, take one idea and apply it to your trading and achieve mastery. Then take another and another. The ZZBB method took me 4 months (6 days x 16 weeks) just to get the ideas down and consistent.... i didn't understand everything and i didn't get the maths to begin with. That was 2013. It's now 1 year since..... persistence. Even during the dark days when you lose money or you lose your mind.

DON'T GIVE UP! BUT DON'T TAKE SHORT CUTS.
A pip is only worth it if you know how much you risked to earn it
  • #8,716
  • Sep 20, 2014 1:04pm Sep 20, 2014 1:04pm
Quoting Ullen
{quote} Thank you, I agree 100% If people don't understand the forex market, or can't trade without fear they have to remember some things. You can see the forex market as your mood during the day/week/year. If you drop your new iphone in the morning we have a very bearish bar. But chances are that there will happen something during the day that will make you happy again, this is price moving it's way towards the start of the bearish bar. If you have a bad day this is a bearish dayli bar, but there are bullish spikes because there will hapen some...
Preachit ullen! Now you found and edge
  • #8,717
  • Edited 2:17pm Sep 20, 2014 1:05pm | Edited 2:17pm
Quoting Baillie
Let me ask a question, Do you make a positive trade by setting your take profit in the transient zone OR by setting your take profit in the areas just above or below the transient zone; depending which way the market is moving to. North trader, think of it this way; the higher your (h) is, the LESS transient zones you will have. The lower your (h) is, the more transient zones you will have. So, think about this, transient meaning: (passing through) do you want to find more areas that price passes through or less? It is possible to make very good...
Is it about a low or high (h) or about an optimal (h) ? Maybe about the (h) that give us the best probabilities? With an optimal (h) and supposing that the zone is transient if only the left side is complete we can make a lot of $$$$$$. Even if the optimal (h) is high. Every bar can take out a supposed TZ and revisit the previous bar(s) if only the left side is complete. Recurrent or transient, both will win with an optimal (h).

Correct me if I’m wrong.
  • #8,718
  • Sep 20, 2014 1:07pm Sep 20, 2014 1:07pm
Quoting Ullen
Hey everyone. This is mainly for the ones out there struggling. I thought i would share some of the thoughts i made when i started to open my eyes (very important that you do this yourself!) You need to read the hole thread, but i suppose almost all of you have done this. You DON'T need to understand everything, and you definately dont need to use evthing in your trading. I see every different concepts being used at the moment, and all of them are doing very good! If there is something that you don't understand. Don't force yourself to understand...
Nice post!
  • #8,719
  • Sep 20, 2014 1:37pm Sep 20, 2014 1:37pm
Quoting Ullen
{quote} Thank you, I agree 100% If people don't understand the forex market, or can't trade without fear they have to remember some things. You can see the forex market as your mood during the day/week/year. If you drop your new iphone in the morning we have a very bearish bar. But chances are that there will happen something during the day that will make you happy again, this is price moving it's way towards the start of the bearish bar. If you have a bad day this is a bearish dayli bar, but there are bullish spikes because there will hapen some...

Hurrayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy ullen, you just gave me my 30 somethingth eureka moment. Awesome. God bless you real good.
Can someone tell fx-jay to unignore me! I must say a big thankyou to fx-jay for my 28th eureka moment. Now i will turn 50usd to 5million usd
  • #8,720
  • Sep 20, 2014 2:12pm Sep 20, 2014 2:12pm
Quoting hukam
{quote} good job, you got feeling of market heartbeat rating!
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